Integrated Water Operations in California: Hydropower, Overdraft, and Climate Change

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 16th, 2015

Several management and climate cases are evaluated with the updated CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model of California’s inter-tied water supply infrastructure.

Several management and climate cases are evaluated with the updated CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model of California’s inter-tied water supply infrastructure. Updates to the CALVIN model include new projected 2050 agricultural target demands and scarcity penalties, improvements to network-flow representation, especially agricultural, urban, and wildlife refuge demands, and extended surface and ground water hydrology, now covering an 82-year historical inflow hydrology. A new energy price scheme is applied to CALVIN, which incorporates hourly energy price variations into monthly CALVIN operations. Using one constant average price for a month underestimates hydropower revenue and overestimates pumping costs. Hourly-varying moving average prices improved representation of hydropower revenue without creating significant scarcities to agricultural and urban water users. Effects of ending long-term groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley are evaluated with several management cases using CALVIN. The cases include effects of Delta outflow and Delta exports from a “no overdraft” policy. The least cost overdraft that minimizes groundwater pumping and scarcity costs is calculated for the 82-year period. Prohibiting Delta exports result in severe water scarcities south of the Delta. Water operations are more economical when overdraft is ended with adaptations, such as more Delta exports, increased groundwater banking, and water trades, than historical operations with overdraft. Finally, climate change effects under a warmer and drier climate scenario are studied and results are compared to historical hydrology. A drier and warmer climate shifts the timing and magnitude of stream flows. Spring snowmelt decreases and winter flows increase. Modelled reduction in rim inflows averages about 28%. This warmer-drier climate increases water scarcities, but adverse effects can be diminished with water sales, higher Delta exports, more conjunctive use, and wastewater recycling. 

Intensification of hydrological drought in California by human water management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 25th, 2017

Interpretation of Hydrostratigraphy and Water Quality from AEM Data Collected in the Northern Salinas Valley, CA

Marina Coast Water District | March 15th, 2018

Groundwater management, in the Monterey area of California, requires an accurate understanding of the hydrostratigraphy of the coastal aquifer system, as well as an unde

Groundwater management, in the Monterey area of California, requires an accurate understanding of the hydrostratigraphy of the coastal aquifer system, as well as an understanding of the groundwater quality variability within that system. The hydraulic properties of, and connectivity between, the individual units in the aquifer system determine potential routes for the movement of groundwater within and between aquifers. An understanding of the distribution of water quality within the aquifer system and an understanding of the hydrostratigraphy of the system are needed to evaluate the current state of groundwater resources, and to assess the potential impact of any proposed activity on the groundwater resources in the area. The focus of this study is the Northern Salinas Valley. Figure 1 shows the specific region of interest outlined in pink. The orange contour shows the extent of saltwater intrusion into the uppermost aquifers in this area, as determined from well data by the Monterey County Water Resources Agency as the regions where groundwater contains concentrations of chloride greater than 500 mg/L. But there is some question as to whether this contour accurately captures the extent of saltwater intrusion into these aquifers. The detection of water with anomalously low concentrations of total dissolved solids in five newly constructed monitoring well clusters suggests the presence of isolated lenses of fresher groundwater in the Dune Sand Aquifer and Perched Dune Sand Aquifer (outlined in light blue) and in the 180-Foot Aquifer (outlined in dark blue) (Hopkins Groundwater Consultants, 2016). The locations of seven wells from the Monterey Peninsula Water Supply Project (MPWSP) are also shown in Figure 1 as red diamonds, and wells owned by the Marina Coast Water District (MCWD) are shown as green circles. The two groundwater subbasins in the region of interest—the Monterey Subbasin and the 180/400 Aquifer Subbasin—are outlined in purple and blue, respectively. The objective of this study was to use the geophysical method, airborne electromagnetics (AEM), to evaluate the current understanding of the hydrostratigraphy in this area and to interpret the distribution of groundwater quality indicated by available well data. To evaluate the understanding of the hydrostratigraphy, a hydrostratigraphic model of the region of interest was first built using existing data, and was then updated with the information supplied by the AEM data. This approach was followed for two separate initial models. The first initial model was based on the North Marina Groundwater Model (NMGWM), developed by Geoscience Support Services as part of the MPWSP. The second initial model was built in-house using lithology data and hydrostratigraphic interpretations from a variety of previously published reports. Our interpretation of the distribution of groundwater quality in the region is based on statistical relationships built between water quality samples and borehole geophysical data collected in the wells shown in Figure 1.

Investigating the Link Between Surface Water and Groundwater in the Tule Lake Subbasin, Oregon and California

Portland State University | August 13th, 2014

Water allocation in the upper Klamath Basin of Oregon and California has been challenging. Irrigators have increasingly turned to groundwater to make up for surf

Water allocation in the upper Klamath Basin of Oregon and California has been challenging. Irrigators have increasingly turned to groundwater to make up for surface water shortages because of shifts in allocation toward in-stream flows for Endangered Species Act-listed fishes. The largest increase in groundwater pumping has been in and around the Bureau of Reclamation’s Klamath Irrigation Project, which includes the Tule Lake subbasin in the southern part of the upper Klamath Basin. Previous groundwater flow model simulations indicate that water level declines from pumping may result in decreased flow to agricultural drains in the Tule Lake subbasin. Agricultural drains on the Klamath Project are an important source of water for downstream irrigators and for the Tule Lake and Lower Klamath Lake National Wildlife Refuges. To better assess the impact of increased pumping on drain flow and on the water balance of the groundwater system, flow data from agricultural drains were evaluated to investigate the changes that have taken place in groundwater discharge to drains since pumping volumes increased. Additionally, a fine-grid groundwater model of the Tule Lake subbasin was developed based on the existing regional flow model. The fine-grid model has sufficient vertical and horizontal resolution to simulate vertical head gradients, takes advantage of time-series data from 38 observation wells for model calibration, and allows agricultural drains to be more explicitly represented. Results of the drain flow analysis show that the groundwater discharge to agricultural drains has decreased by approximately 4000 hectare-meters from the 1997-2000 average discharge. Most of this decrease takes place in the northern and southeastern portions of the subbasin.  Results of the groundwater model show that the initial source of water to wells is groundwater storage. By 2006, approximately 56% of the water from wells is sourced from agricultural drains.

Investigating the Role of Snow Water Equivalent on Streamflow Predictability during Drought

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 20th, 2022

Snowpack provides the majority of predictive information for water supply forecasts (WSFs) in snow-dominated basins across the western United States. Drought conditions t

Snowpack provides the majority of predictive information for water supply forecasts (WSFs) in snow-dominated basins across the western United States. Drought conditions typically accompany decreased snowpack and lowered runoff efficiency, negatively impacting WSFs. Here, we investigate the relationship between snow water equivalent (SWE) and April–July streamflow volume (AMJJ-V) during drought in small headwater catchments, using observations from 31 USGS streamflow gauges and 54 SNOTEL stations. A linear regression approach is used to evaluate forecast skill under different historical climatologies used for model fitting, as well as with different forecast dates. Experiments are constructed in which extreme hydrological drought years are withheld from model training, that is, years with AMJJ-V below the 15th percentile. Subsets of the remaining years are used for model fitting to understand how the climatology of different training subsets impacts forecasts of extreme drought years. We generally report overprediction in drought years. However, training the forecast model on drier years, that is, below-median years (P15, P57.5], minimizes residuals by an average of 10%in drought year forecasts, relative to a baseline case, with the highest median skill obtained in mid- to late April for colder regions. We report similar findings using a modified National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) procedure in nine large Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) basins, highlighting the importance of the snowpack–streamflow relationship in streamflow predictability. We propose an “adaptive sampling” approach of dynamically selecting training years based on antecedent SWE conditions, showing error reductions of up to 20% in historical drought years relative to the period of record. These alternate training protocols provide opportunities for addressing the challenges of future drought risk to water supply planning.

Klamath/San Joaquin/Sacramento Hydroclimatic Reconstructions from Tree Rings

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | February 7th, 2014

This is a draft final report for Agreement Number 4600008850, “Klamath/San Joaquin/Sacramento Hydroclimatic Reconstructions”, signed October 13, 2010.  Work includes

This is a draft final report for Agreement Number 4600008850, “Klamath/San Joaquin/Sacramento Hydroclimatic Reconstructions”, signed October 13, 2010.  Work includes developing new and updated tree-ring chronologies, reconstructing specified streamflow and/or precipitation records in the Klamath, San Joaquin and Sacramento River Basins, and analyzing the time series properties of the reconstructions. These reconstructions allow assessment of hydrologic variability over centuries to millennia and give context for assessing recent drought events. Tasks on this project included field collections; laboratory work in sample preparation, dating and measurement; and statistical work in chronology development, reconstruction, and analysis of those reconstructions. The interpretation of the reconstructions includes five main components : 1) place instrumental-period flow statistics in a long-term context, 2) quantify droughts and wet periods, 3) identify cycles in wetness and dryness, 4) check consistency with other paleoclimatic data, and 5) assess reconstructed flow variations in the context of expected scenarios of climate. A total of 16 different hydroclimatic series – 11 flow records and 5 precipitation records, were reconstructed. This report summarizes the research project products and results. The Data and Methods section of this report describes the field collections and development of tree-ring chronologies, reconstruction modeling, and methods of analyzing reconstructions. The Results section focuses on the interpretation of selected key reconstructions for the Klamath, Sacramento, and San Joaquin basins. Annual time series of the 16 reconstructions are included as products in an appendix and in a digital spreadsheet.

Land use and land cover influence on water quality in the last free-flowing river draining the western Sierra Nevada, California

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | November 10th, 2005

Land use and land cover across 28 sub-basins within the Cosumnes Watershed, CA (1989 km2) were correlated to nitrate-N and total suspended solids (TSS) loading between w

Land use and land cover across 28 sub-basins within the Cosumnes Watershed, CA (1989 km2) were correlated to nitrate-N and total suspended solids (TSS) loading between water years 1999 and 2001. The impact of human development on stream water quality was evident as both agricultural area and population density predicted TSS loading in a linear mixed effects model. In contrast to the TSS model, the nitrate-N loading model was more complex with agriculture, grassland, and the presence or absence of waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) all contributing. The lack of correlation between population density and nitrate-N loading indicates that human habitation of the landscape does not impact stream nitrate levels until a WWTP is built within the sub-basin. During dry water years the models predict a linear reduction in TSS loading but the correlations to agriculture and population density remain positive. In contrast, nitrate is positively correlated to grasslands during average water years and negatively correlated during dry water years. Analysis of constituent fluxes from the upper watershed versus the lower watershed indicates that silica is derived primarily from the uplands and that during dry water years the upper watershed is an important source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate. The lower watershed contributes the majority of the sediment and nutrients during both dry and average water years, the one caveat being that during dry years the lower basin becomes a nitrate sink.

Landscape Patterns and Processes of the McCormack-Williamson Tract and Surrounding Area: A framework for restoring a resilient and functional landscape

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | March 25th, 2013

This report uses a reconstruction of the historical (early 19th century) Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta landscape in concert with contemporary data to elucidate restoration

This report uses a reconstruction of the historical (early 19th century) Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta landscape in concert with contemporary data to elucidate restoration opportunities and constraints at the McCormack-Williamson Tract and within the surrounding Delta setting. Historical ecology encourages a landscape-level perspective of restoration through improved understanding of how physical processes created and maintained habitat mosaics in the recent past. This perception of landscapes can be used to evaluate current conditions and develop future restoration scenarios. We used the recently completed study of the historical Delta landscape (Whipple et al. 2012) to explore opportunities for the McCormack-Williamson Tract (MWT), a 1,645 acre (6.6 km2) tract along the Mokelumne River (Figure 1 and Figure 2). This site exemplifies the need to balance contemporary constraints to restoration (including existing infrastructure and flood protection concerns) with the goals of landscape-scale restoration. To explore some of the strategies and opportunities available to advance the landscape-scale restoration in the MWT area, three general concepts emerged: increasing landscape complexity, connectivity, and resilience. To understand how to interpret and improve these attributes, we developed conceptual models that placed the site within the larger landscapes of the historical Delta, relating local habitat features to regional controlling physical gradients. This aided interpretation of the contemporary physical landscape and allowed identification of opportunities and constraints to both short-term and long-term landscape-scale restoration. The historical record reveals features such as floodplain lakes, forests on natural river levees, and tidal channels in the study area. These and other features could be strategically incorporated into a restoration vision, or an “operational landscape unit” for this part of the Delta (Verhoeven et al. 2008). This type of perspective can help focus restoration targets, including the relative proportion and placement of different habitat types and landscape elements within project design constraints, maximizing the site’s ecological potential. The landscape-scale approach also identifies opportunities to improve ecological connectivity and long-term adaptability to sea level rise and other environmental changes. Some of these opportunities may be critical to the ecological function and resilience of the area, but may not be able to be addressed in the immediate MWT project design. Thus, a central component of translating a historical landscape perspective to site-scale design is envisioning an adaptable restoration process that spans short-term restoration actions that are possible within the site’s bounds, while maintaining a longer-term vision of what is needed at the landscape scale.

Landslide-channel feedbacks amplify channel widening during floods

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 24th, 2025

Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 17th, 2020

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogen

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.