Estimating Historical California Precipitation Phase Trends Using Gridded Precipitation, Precipitation Phase, and Elevation Data

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 18th, 2014

Climate change projections for California indicate reduction in the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow, and increase in the percentage that falls as rain, due

Climate change projections for California indicate reduction in the percentage of precipitation that falls as snow, and increase in the percentage that falls as rain, due to warmer temperatures in the future. Previous work has shown overall decreases in rainfall / snowfall ratios for the western US over the last 60 years. Of interest in this study is the quantification of snow/rain ratios for smaller regions, specifically in California. Estimating cumulative precipitation phase ratios for specific regions is difficult due to large differences in local precipitation. In California, the high relief of the surface topography makes such estimates particularly difficult. The low spatial resolution of suitable precipitation/snow water equivalent monitoring stations contributes to the difficulty in quantifying the trends for sub-state sized regions of interest in this study. The present exploratory study develops and describes a methodology that uses readily available research data sets to produce gridded estimates of historical rainfall as a fraction of total precipitation for areas comprising the major water-supply watersheds of California. Using this methodology, statistically significant increases in the ratio of annual liquid to total precipitation are seen for large areas in the northern part of the State and northern Sierra over the water year. No significant annual trends are seen for regions in the central and southern portions of the Sierra. Future work extending the analysis to distinct elevation ranges and seasonality would provide more refined conclusions.

Estuary News, August 2001

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | August 15th, 2001

Estuary News, February 2008

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | February 15th, 2008

Estuary News, June 1994

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | June 15th, 1994

Estuary News, October 2001

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | October 15th, 2001

Evaluation of Geohydrologic Framework, Recharge Estimates, and Ground-Water Flow of the Joshua Tree Area, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 7th, 2005

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water b

Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water basin in the southern Mojave Desert. The Joshua Basin Water District (JBWD) supplies water to the community from the underlying Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin. The JBWD is concerned with the long-term sustainability of the underlying aquifer. To help meet future demands, the JBWD plans to construct production wells in the adjacent Copper Mountain ground-water subbasin. As growth continues in the desert, there may be a need to import water to supplement the available ground-water resources. In order to manage the ground-water resources and to identify future mitigating measures, a thorough understanding of the ground-water system is needed. The purpose of this study was threefold: (1) improve the understanding of the geohydrologic framework of the Joshua Tree and Copper Mountain ground-water subbasins, (2) determine the distribution and quantity of recharge using field and numerical techniques, and (3) develop a ground-water flow model that can be used to help manage the water resources of the region.

Evaluation of the Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Floods Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in Coastal Western U.S. Watersheds

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | May 27th, 2021

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month) is a critical lead time for proactive mitigation of flood disasters. The NOAA Climate Testbed Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a research-to-operations project with almost immediate availability of forecasts. It has produced a reforecast database that facilitates evaluation of flood forecasts at these subseasonal lead times. Here, we examine the SubX-driven forecast skill of AR-related flooding out to 4-week lead using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), with particular attention to the role of antecedent soil moisture (ASM), which modulates the relationship between meteorological and hydrological forecast skill. We study three watersheds along a transect of the U.S. West Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. We find that the SubX-driven flood forecast skill drops quickly after week 1, during which there is relatively high deterministic forecast skill. We find some probabilistic forecast skill relative to climatology as well as ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) in week 2, but minimal skill in weeks 3–4, especially for annual maximum floods, notwithstanding some probabilistic skill for smaller floods in week 3. Using ESP and reverse-ESP experiments to consider the relative influence of ASM and SubX reforecast skill, we find that ASM dominates probabilistic forecast skill only for small flood events at week 1, while SubX reforecast skill dominates for large flood events at all lead times.

Examining the Contribution of the Observed Global Warming Trend to the California Droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 30th, 2014

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy se

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy season on record (1895–2014), while the 2012/13 season registered as the 45th warmest and 38th driest (Vose et al. 2014). The 2013 January–December calendar year was the driest on record (Water CA 2014). These consecutive below-normal seasons conspired with warm temperatures to reduce California’s snowpack to the second lowest level since 1960, when recording began, with snowpack at 24% of normal (Water CA 2014). Between January 2013 and January 2014, satellite observations documented dramatic snowpack-related land cover change (NASA Earth Observatory 2014): in 2014, the Cascade, Sierra Nevada, and Coastal ranges were almost completely devoid of snow. In February and March of 2014, air temperatures were extremely warm (NOAA NCDC 2014; HPRC 2014), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observations indicated extreme or moderate hydrologic drought (USGS 2014) and high levels of vegetation stress (VegDRI 2014). The state declared a drought emergency (NIDIS 2014). While it is too soon to assess the full impact of the 2012/13 and 2013/14 California droughts, they seem likely to substantially impact the state’s ability to generate hydrologic power, support agriculture, reduce the risk of forest and bush fires, and protect fragile ecosystems (Huffington Post 2014). *Chapter 4, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9)

Executive Order N-10-19

State of California | April 29th, 2019

Exploring scientific and management implications of upper trophic level food webs in the Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 17th, 2024

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has complex and evolving ecosystems characterized by multiple food webs that vary in time and space. Here, food webs are defi

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) has complex and evolving ecosystems characterized by multiple food webs that vary in time and space. Here, food webs are defined as the network of species interactions (competition, predation) and interactions with their environment that are related through the flow of energy through the ecosystem (e.g., Paine 1980). Physical modifications, in addition to the introduction of non-native species and the changing climate, have significantly altered the structure and energetic pathways of the food webs for decades. The science clearly suggests that predicting the impacts of habitat restoration, fisheries, changes in environmental drivers (e.g., climate, changes in nutrient loading, invasive species) on the ecological carrying capacity and productivity of the Delta, as well as the bioaccumulation of contaminants on species or the ecosystem, requires an understanding of food web processes.