Climate Change and the Delta

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | October 1st, 2016

Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic

Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. Future precipitation changes are less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporation and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include sea level rise, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflow, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision-making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

Climate Change and the Delta: A Synthesis (Public Review Draft)

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | March 23rd, 2018

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providin

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providing a more reliable water supply for California and protecting, restoring, and enhancing the Delta ecosystem (Water Code Section 85000). In the time since the Plan was adopted in 2013, a significant shift in State planning for Delta ecosystem protection, restoration, and enhancement has occurred, prompting review of the Delta Plan to  examine whether its strategies are still suited to achieve the ecological goals of the Delta Reform Act. As such, the Delta Stewardship Council (Council) is developing an amendment of the Plan’s Chapter 4, Protect, Restore, and Enhance the Delta Ecosystem. Council staff are reviewing the best-available science to inform amendment of Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan. To support this effort, Council staff have developed three science  synthesis papers. This paper focuses on the effects of climate change in the Delta and is accompanied by two other papers focused on the Delta ecosystem (terrestrial and  aquatic resources) and restoration. Climate change is of interest for the Chapter 4  amendment given recent rapid advancements in research on climate change and its  effects on the Delta ecosystem that have occurred since the Delta Plan was adopted in  2013 (Dettinger et al. 2016). Climate change has the potential to significantly affect the Delta ecosystem by raising  air and water temperatures, changing the timing and volume of flows into and through  the Delta, increasing tidal inundation with sea-level rise (SLR), and increasing salinity  intrusion into the Delta. Climate change is recognized as a global stressor in Chapter 4 of the 2013 Delta Plan, but the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems are  discussed only briefly and with limited consideration of management strategies that address the issue. Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan identifies five key stressors to the Delta  ecosystem and core strategies for addressing each. Climate change has interrelated  effects on all five core strategy areas: Delta flows, habitat, water quality, non-native 28 species, and hatcheries and harvest management. The Delta Reform Act specifies consideration of “the future impact of climate change and sea-level rise” (Water Code Section 85066), and identifies a restoration timeline horizon of 2100 (Water Code Section 85302). More generally, Executive Order B-30-15, signed by Governor Brown in April 2015, requires that State agencies incorporate climate change into planning and investment decisions, and that they prioritize natural infrastructure and actions for climate preparedness.

Climate change and variability drive increasing exposure of marine heatwaves across US estuaries

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 6th, 2025

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are among the greatest threats to marine ecosystems, and while substantial advances have been made in oceanic MHWs, little is known about estuarin

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are among the greatest threats to marine ecosystems, and while substantial advances have been made in oceanic MHWs, little is known about estuarine MHWs. Utilizing a temperature dataset spanning over two decades and 54 stations distributed across 20 estuaries in the United States National Estuarine Research Reserve System, we present a comprehensive analysis of estuarine MHW characteristics and trends. Long-term climate-change-driven warming is driving more frequent MHWs along the East Coast, and if trends continue, this region will be in a MHW state for ~ 1/3 of the year by the end of the century. In contrast, the vast majority of the West Coast showed no trends, highlighting the potential for future thermal refugia. The West Coast was more strongly influenced by climate variability through the enhancement/suppression of MHWs during different phases of climate modes, suggesting long-term predictability potential. These results can provide guidance for management actions and planning in these critical environments.

Climate Change Impacts to Water and Sanitation for Frontline Communities in the United States Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change in the United States Series, Part 1

Pacific Institute | January 15th, 2024

Climate change is among the most urgent, wide-ranging crises we face. It poses significant challenges and is already resulting in severe impacts to drinking water and san

Climate change is among the most urgent, wide-ranging crises we face. It poses significant challenges and is already resulting in severe impacts to drinking water and sanitation access. This is true for both those currently living without access and for communities where forces like drought, flooding, sea level rise, wildfires, and intensifying storms threaten backsliding by degrading or stripping basic water and sanitation services from the people. Access to sufficient, safe, acceptable, physically accessible, and affordable water and sanitation is essential for human health and wellbeing, as well as economic prosperity—and climate change will inevitably make ensuring all have access more challenging. Without water and sanitation access, people do not have water to drink, cannot clean, shower, or wash their hands, and cannot safely dispose of human waste. They may have to travel long distances to purchase and haul water back to their homes. Without access to water, they also have less ability to cool their homes, protect themselves from wildfires, and work or go to school. An economic assessment by DigDeep found that for every household in the United States without access to water and sanitation, the domestic economy loses $15,800 annually in extra health care costs, time and money spent on bottled water, lost educational or work opportunities, and premature death (DigDeep 2022). This is part one  in the Pacific Institute's three-part Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change in the United States series. Click here for part two and here for part three.

Climate Change Scenarios for Air and Water Temperatures in the Upper San Francisco Estuary: Implications for Thermal Regimes and Delta Smelt

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 10th, 2024

Climatic regulation of the neurotoxin domoic acid

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | January 9th, 2017

Domoic acid is a potent neurotoxin produced by certain marine microalgae that can accumulate in the foodweb, posing a health threat to human seafood consumers a

Domoic acid is a potent neurotoxin produced by certain marine microalgae that can accumulate in the foodweb, posing a health threat to human seafood consumers and wildlife in coastal regions worldwide. Evidence of climatic regulation of domoic acid in shellfish over the past 20 y in the Northern California Current regime is shown. The timing of elevated domoic acid is strongly related to warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Oceanic Niño Index, an indicator of El Niño events. Ocean conditions in the northeast Pacific that are associated with warm phases of these indices, including changes in prevailing currents and advection of anomalously warm water masses onto the continental shelf, are hypothesized to contribute to increases in this toxin. We present an applied domoic acid risk assessment model for the US West Coast based on combined climatic and local variables. Evidence of regional- to basin-scale controls on domoic acid has not previously been presented. Our findings have implications in coastal zones worldwide that are affected by this toxin and are particularly relevant given the increased frequency of anomalously warm ocean conditions.

Closing the gap between micro- and nano plastics science and policy

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 25th, 2026

Coagulant and Sorbent Efficacy in Removing Mercury from Surface Waters in the Cache Creek Watershed, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 25th, 2019

Cache Creek drains part of northern California’s Coast Ranges and is an important source of mercury (Hg) to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Cache Creek is c

Cache Creek drains part of northern California’s Coast Ranges and is an important source of mercury (Hg) to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Cache Creek is contaminated with Hg from several sources, including historical Hg and gold mines, native Hg in the soils, and active mineral springs. In laboratory experiments in a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the use of coagulants and sorbents to immobilize Hg in water samples from high- concentration sources in the Cache Creek watershed was investigated. Three sites were selected for the collection of surface-water samples containing high and low concentrations of particulate-associated Hg. The high-particulate Hg samples were collected from Cache Creek Settling Basin duringstormflow conditions. The low-particulate Hg samples werecollected from two geochemically contrasting sites duringbase-flow conditions (downstream from a geothermal springand at the emergence point of a connate-water spring). Three coagulants were chosen for laboratory testing with the high-particulate sample— (1) ChitoVanTM HV 1.5 percent (shell based), (2) FerralyteTM 8131 (ferric sulfate based), and (3) UltrionTM 8186 (aluminum based). Each coagulant was tested at various dose amounts to determine the optimum dose rate for the high-particulate sample. The low-particulate source samples were passed through three sorbents— (1) chitosan flakes, (2) coconut shell-based activated carbon,and (3) coal-based activated carbon. In-line columns were packed with each material, and the untreated sample waspassed through each column at three different flow rates (0.1,0.5, and 1.0 liter per minute, L/min). For dose rates used in this study, ChitoVanTM reduced turbidity of the particulate sample by 85–91 percent, FerralyteTM reduced turbidity by 54–93 percent, and UltrionTMreduced turbidity by greater than 90 percent. At the lowest dose rate, ChitoVanTM achieved a 59- to 61-percent reduction in whole-water methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations and a 71- to 75-percent decrease in whole-water total mercury  (THg) concentrations. FerralyteTM achieved a 37- to 48-percent decrease in whole-water MeHg concentrations and a 37- to 48-percent reduction in whole-water THg concentrations. UltrionTM achieved a greater than 90-percent decrease in whole-water MeHg and THg concentrations. Mercury removal from the low-particulate samples was less efficient for the sorbent materials compared to the coagulants; less than 30 percent of THg was removed from any 500-milliliter aliquot using sorbent materials. The coal-based sorbent was the most versatile of the sorbents, removing THg to a similar extent from both low-particulatesource waters. The chitosan sorbent was the most effective atremoving THg from the low-particulate stream sample, but less effective for the low-particulate connate-spring sample. The Hg removal efficiency of the coconut sorbent decreasedquickly compared to the other two sorbents, indicating that sorption may be limited by the short contact times evaluated in this study.

Coastal wetland deposition of cathode metals from the world’s largest lithium-ion battery fire

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 26th, 2025

Comments on and Protest of Temporary Urgency Change Petition Regarding Delta Water Quality

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | February 17th, 2023