Projected Changes in California’s Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) | August 15th, 2018

Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of hydroclimati

Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of hydroclimatic extremes (e.g., rainfall, streamflow, etc.) do not change significantly over time. However, during the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere. Consequently, infrastructure and natural slopes will likely face more severe climatic conditions, with potential human and socioeconomic consequences. Here, we outline a framework for quantifying climate change impacts on natural and man-made infrastructure using bias-corrected multi-model simulations of historical and projected precipitation extremes. The approach evaluates changes in rainfall intensity-duration- frequency (IDF) curves and their uncertainty bounds using a non-stationary model based on Bayesian inference. We show that highly populated areas across California may experience extreme precipitation that is more intense and twice as frequent, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation. Since IDF curves are widely used for infrastructure design and risk assessment, the proposed framework offers an avenue for assessing infrastructure resilience and landslide hazard in a warming climate.

Projected Changes in Precipitation, Temperature, and Drought across California’s Hydrologic Regions

Climate (MDPI) | April 23rd, 2018

This study investigates potential changes in future precipitation, temperature, and drought across 10 hydrologic regions in California. The latest climate model p

This study investigates potential changes in future precipitation, temperature, and drought across 10 hydrologic regions in California. The latest climate model projections on these variables through 2099 representing the current state of the climate science are applied for this purpose. Changes are explored in terms of differences from a historical baseline as well as the changing rate (trend slope). Results indicate that warming is expected throughout the 21st Century across all regions in all temperature projections. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 warm about the same amount by mid-21st Century, but thereafter the higher rate of warming produces greater increases in temperature under RCP 8.5. There is no such consensus in precipitation, with projections ranging from -25 percent to +50 percent different from the historical baseline. There is no statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend in historical precipitation and in a majority of the projections of precipitation. On average, projected precipitation changes are small compared to the natural variability observed in historical precipitation. Compared to wet regions, dry regions are projected to have higher increases in temperature and more severe droughts. Droughts are increasingly extreme in the late 21st Century, especially in RCP 8.5 simulations. The study also shows that the coolest North Lahontan region tends to have the highest increases in both minimum and maximum temperature. The region is also projected to experience increases in wet season precipitation. For the driest region, the Colorado River region, all projections consistently show higher increasing trends in temperature and drought risk compared to their historical counterparts. Overall, these findings are meaningful from both scientific and practical perspectives. From a scientific perspective, these findings provide useful information that can be utilized to improve the current flood and water supply forecasting models or develop new predictive models. From a practical perspective, these findings can help decision-makers in making better-informed adaptive strategies for different regions to address adverse impacts posed by those potential changes.

Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 6th, 2018

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville Dam crisis in California. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how such rain-on-snow (ROS) flood risk may respond to climate change. Here, daily ROS events with flood-generating potential are simulated over western North America for a historical (2000–2013) and future (forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) period with the Weather Research and Forecasting model; 4 km resolution allows the basin-scale ROS flood risk to be assessed. In the warmer climate, we show that ROS becomes less frequent at lower elevations due to snowpack declines, particularly in warmer areas (for example, the Pacific maritime region). By contrast, at higher elevations where seasonal snowcover persists, ROS becomes more frequent due to a shift from snowfall to rain. Accordingly, the water available for runoff increases for 55% of western North American river basins, with corresponding increases in flood risk of 20–200%, the greatest changes of which are projected for the Sierra Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Thus, flood control and water resource planning must consider ROS to fully quantify changes in flood risk with anthropogenic warming.

Promoting atmospheric-river and snowmelt fueled biogeomorphic processes by restoring river-floodplain connectivity in California’s Central Valley

Springer | April 30th, 2015

Potential biogeomorphic benefits from intentional levee breaks and weir overflow on the managed floodplain-river system of California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin River

Potential biogeomorphic benefits from intentional levee breaks and weir overflow on the managed floodplain-river system of California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin River watershed (Central Valley) are discussed here. Prior to the nineteenth century, the system was characterized by natural levees alongside complex multichanneled rivers and tributaries, and geomorphic processes such as channel migration and avulsion, typical in lowland floodplain-river systems globally, dominated. Today, the floodplain-river system has been heavily modified with infrastructure such as levee embankments that disconnect floodplains from channels and diminish key processes of floodplain-river ecology. Unintentional levee breaks in river systems where floodplains have been developed for agriculture or urban uses still occur regularly (in a quarter of twentieth century years) and are sometimes catastrophic. Floodplain inundation, erosion, and sedimentation, the dominant geomorphic processes that occur during unintentional levee breaks, are flood risks in such embanked river systems. Climate and flood variability still dictate the frequency of unintentional levee breaks despite many decades of engineering. Of particular consequence are the so-called atmospheric-river (AR) storms. Since 1951, 81 % of breaks have occurred as a result of AR storms and flooding, while most of the rest occurred during snowmelt floods. Intentional levee breaks or planned weir overflows that are designed for floodplain restoration can facilitate a return towards more natural and dynamic biogeomorphic processes. In areas where room for flood-driven geomorphic processes is available on floodplains, local sediment scour and deposition near a levee break promote topographic diversity that enhances vegetation establishment and floodplain habitat. This chapter summarizes our current understanding of climate processes and flood variability that govern unintentional levee breaks or weir overflow. We also review examples of alternative flood management approaches in the Central Valley that promote processes necessary to restore or sustain lowland floodplain biogeomorphology. Future climate-driven changes in flood regime, such as enhanced flooding during winter months or more frequent atmospheric rivers, could be accommodated by additional intentional levee breaks or planned weir overflow for restoration. Implementation of these alternatives could be used to improve restoration policy and management of floods in embanked river floodplains.

Protocol for Closure of Delta Waterways

Office of Emergency Services | November 21st, 1997

This protocol describes the process for placing restrictions on vessel traffic on the San Joaquin/Sacramento Delta waterways during periods of high water levels and flood

This protocol describes the process for placing restrictions on vessel traffic on the San Joaquin/Sacramento Delta waterways during periods of high water levels and flood events that involve conditions of disaster or extreme peril to the safety of persons and property. Restrictions will provide for flood fight priorities and control of vessel wakes that may exacerbate levee erosion or overtopping.

Quantifying Erosion Rates by Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning at Malakoff Diggins State Historic Park, Nevada County, California, 2014–17

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 31st, 2019

The abandoned hydraulic mine pit at Malakoff Diggins near Grass Valley, California, can produce large volumes of eroded sediment transportable by storm runoff. Sediment-l

The abandoned hydraulic mine pit at Malakoff Diggins near Grass Valley, California, can produce large volumes of eroded sediment transportable by storm runoff. Sediment-laden water discharged from the pit is a major source of heavy metals to Humbug Creek and the South Yuba River. To develop a comprehensive sediment budget for the Malakoff Diggins mine pit and identify sources of sediment and metals within the pit that can become entrained as suspended sediment in runoff discharged from the pit, the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources, the California Department of Parks and Recreation, and the Nevada Irrigation District, used terrestrial laser scanning technology to quantify eroded volumes and erosion rates of sedimentary units exposed in the pit walls. The results for eroded volumes and rates reported here are part one of a three-part study. High-resolution terrestrial laser scanning surveys were repeated annually from 2014 through 2017, including before and after dry and wet winters, measuring centimeter-scale topographic changes to quantify the volume of sediment eroded from outcrops at Malakoff Diggins State Historic Park, located on the western slope of the northern Sierra Nevada about 17 kilometers northeast of Grass Valley, California. Terrestrial laser scanning enabled construction of three-dimensional maps of the complex outcrop surfaces, which could not be mapped non-destructively or in sufficient detail with traditional surveying techniques. Net eroded volumes from discrete sedimentary units were calculated at four study sites (numbered 1, 2, 4, and 5) throughout the mine pit for the December 2014 to August 2017 period. Net eroded volumes at the four study sites during the 32-month study ranged from 288 plus or minus (±) 13 cubic meters (m3) of sediment at site 1 to 8,517±145 m3 at site 4. Annual erosion rates at the four study sites ranged from 0.06±0.01 cubic meters per square meter per year (m3/m2/yr) at site 4 to 0.14±0.01 m3/m2/yr at site 2. The total net eroded volume documented with terrestrial laser scanning at all four study sites from December 2014 to August 2017 was 12,934±334 m3 of sediment, and the average annual erosion rate for the four study sites was 0.10±0.04 m3/m2/yr. Maps of horizontal retreat indicate that a variety of erosional processes were responsible for the eroded sediment volume. These included areally broad and smaller-scale processes such as persistent dry ravel, periodic sheet wash, and frost heave and more localized and larger-scale processes such as coalescing rill and gully erosion, debris flows, rotational landslides, and block-fall failures.

Quantifying the Relationship Between Atmospheric River Origin Conditions and Landfall Temperature

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 11th, 2022

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface ru

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface runoff and flooding, less water availability via low snow accumulations and enhanced snowmelt, and greater challenges for storm forecasting and reservoir operations. Based on case studies, ARs with subtropical origin locations and warm origin conditions are assumed to be associated with warmer landfall temperatures—though, to date, this has not yet been demonstrated systematically. We analyze North Pacific ARs that made landfall along the West Coast of North America from 1980 to 2017. We find that ARs originating over the subtropical Pacific Ocean near Hawaii (“Pineapple Express”-type ARs) are indeed 1.5°C warmer and 2 kg/m2 moister in winter than ARs originating elsewhere. We extend this analysis for the full study population of ARs by quantifying AR origin conditions, including the spatial distribution of origin temperature, moisture content, and integrated vapor transport (IVT). We use fixed effects multivariate regression to quantify the relative influence of the origin conditions on landfall temperature. Our regression models show that AR origins with lower latitudes, longer AR lifetimes, and stronger IVT are associated with warmer landfall temperatures and that ARs that start warm generally stay warm. We also find that the phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation does not exhibit a consistent relationship with AR landfall temperature. Overall, our results partially affirm—yet also complicate—common assumptions about the role of different origin conditions in landfalling AR temperature.

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Rapid vegetation redistribution in Southern California during the early 2000s drought

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 31st, 2012

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Veg

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Vegetation growing near its low-elevation range limit may prove especially vulnerable to mortality and decline. We investigated the altitudinal pattern of conifer mortality that occurred from 2002 to 2004 in Southern California’s San Jacinto Mountains. We found that conifer mortality was focused in the lower portion of the midmontane conifer range, which drove the midmontane conifer distribution upslope. We investigated past reports of conifer mortality in Southern California by searching historical newspaper accounts. We found evidence of previous episodes of conifer mortality that coincided with past droughts, and which may have caused vegetation redistribution in the past. We interpret the early2000s mortality and associated vegetation redistribution as a response to natural decadal tocentennial climate variability. Moreover, we hypothesize this response mode will dominatethe early impact of global climate change on semi-arid forest, which, in turn, may complicate efforts to distinguish between ecological changes attributable to natural climate variability and those attributable to global climate change.

Recent warming of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the west coast of the United States

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 30th, 2019

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often generate extreme precipitation, with AR temperature strongly influencing hydrologic impacts by altering the timing and magni

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often generate extreme precipitation, with AR temperature strongly influencing hydrologic impacts by altering the timing and magnitude of runoff. Long‐term changes in AR temperatures therefore have important implications for regional hydroclimate—especially in locations where a shift to more rain‐dominated AR precipitation could affect flood risk and/or water storage in snowpack. In this study, we provide the first climatology of AR temperature across five US West Coast sub‐regions. We then assess trends in landfalling AR temperatures for each sub‐region from 1980 to 2016 using three reanalysis products. We find AR warming at seasonal and monthly scales. Cool‐season warming ranges from 0.69°C to 1.65°C over the study period. We detect monthly‐scale warming of >2°C, with the most widespread warming occurring in November and March. To understand the causes of AR warming, we quantify the density of AR tracks from genesis to landfall, and analyze along‐track AR temperature for each month and landfall region. We investigate three possible influences on AR temperature trends at landfall: along‐track temperatures prior to landfall, background temperatures over the landfall region, and AR temperature over the coastal ocean adjacent to the region of landfall. Generally, AR temperatures at landfall more closely match coastal and background temperature trends than along‐track AR temperature trends. The seasonal asymmetry of the AR warming and the heterogeneity of influences have important implications for regional water storage and flood risk—demonstrating that changes in AR characteristics are complex, and may not be directly inferred from changes in the background climate. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric river (AR) storms are well known for their ability to accumulate snowpack, provide drought relief, and generate extreme precipitation and flooding along the West Coast of the United States. AR temperature is an important variable for determining the water resource impacts of a given event, such as the ratio of rain to snow delivered by an individual storm. As a result, changes in AR temperature have implications for both water storage and flood risk. We find substantial warming in ARs at both the seasonal and monthly scales, as well as seasonal and regional variations in the amount of warming along the US West Coast. To understand the warming of ARs at the landfall regions, we compare these monthly temperature trends with trends in temperature along the AR tracks, background temperature over the landfall region, and temperature over the coastal ocean adjacent to the landfall region. The most robust warming occurs in November and March, which has important implications for increased regional flood risk and decreased water storage, and motivates further investigation in other AR‐prone regions around the globe.