The Role of Snowpack, Rainfall, and Reservoirs in Buffering California Against Drought Effects

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 1st, 2016

California’s vast reservoir system, fed by annual snow and rainfall, plays an important part in providing water to the State’s human and wildlife population. There ar

California’s vast reservoir system, fed by annual snow and rainfall, plays an important part in providing water to the State’s human and wildlife population. There are almost 1,300 reservoirs throughout the State, but only approximately 200 of them are considered storage reservoirs, and many of the larger ones are critical components of the Federal Central Valley Project and California State Water Project. Storage reservoirs, such as the ones shown in figure 1, capture winter precipitation for use in California’s dry summer months. In addition to engineered reservoir storage, California also depends on water “stored” in the statewide snowpack, which slowly melts during the course of the summer, to augment the State’s water supply.

The seven Colorado River Basin states letter to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, 5/22/23

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | May 22nd, 2023

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 17th, 2017

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (averag

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906–1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively −20% by midcentury and −35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding −30% at midcentury and −55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.

The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 17th, 2017

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15‐year drought on record. At least one‐sixth to one‐half (

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15‐year drought on record. At least one‐sixth to one‐half (average at one‐third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906–1999 average), confirming model‐based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model‐based temperature projections indicate that continued business‐as‐usual warming will drive temperature‐induced declines in river flow, conservatively −20% by midcentury and −35% by end‐century, with support for losses exceeding −30% at midcentury and −55% at end‐century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.

The unequal burdens of water scarcity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

Curtailing water use during drought is costly, but those costs are not evenly distributed. Socio–hydrological modelling shows how water burdens fall more heavily on poo

Curtailing water use during drought is costly, but those costs are not evenly distributed. Socio–hydrological modelling shows how water burdens fall more heavily on poor households in response to water conservation policies.

The Well Fixer's Warning

The Atlantic | August 17th, 2021

The well fixer and I were standing at the edge of an almond orchard in the exhausted middle of California. It was late July, and so many wells on the farms of Madera Co

The well fixer and I were standing at the edge of an almond orchard in the exhausted middle of California. It was late July, and so many wells on the farms of Madera County were coming up dry that he was running out of parts to fix them. In this latest round of western drought, desperate voices were calling him at six in the morning and again at midnight. They were puzzled why their pumps were coughing up sand, the water’s flow to their orchards now a trickle.

The West Wide Drought Tracker: Drought Monitoring at Fine Spatial Scales

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 1st, 2017

 The western United States has seen increases in population and water use over the past century. Total water use has remained relatively unchanged over the past several

 The western United States has seen increases in population and water use over the past century. Total water use has remained relatively unchanged over the past several decades due to water conservation efforts. However, water scarcity has become more acute across much of this semiarid region during recent decades due to long-term declines in water storage juxtaposed with the region’s notable hydroclimatic variability. Observed declines in mountain snowpack and increases in atmospheric demands tied to long-term warming trends have further exacerbated water scarcity and increased the importance of monitoring efforts given the array of social, economic, and ecosystem sectors dependent upon the already stressed water supply. The recent severe drought in California and protracted drought across much of the southwestern United States over the past couple decades have prompted demand for accessible drought decision-making information at appropriate spatial scales across the western United States. 

Thirstwaves: Prolonged Periods of Agricultural Exposure to Extreme Atmospheric Evaporative Demand for Water

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 20th, 2025

Global atmospheric evaporative demand has increased, impacting agricultural productivity and water use. Traditionally, trend assessments have been limited to total evapor

Global atmospheric evaporative demand has increased, impacting agricultural productivity and water use. Traditionally, trend assessments have been limited to total evaporative demand, overlooking shifts in daily extremes, which are meaningful for agrohydrological outcomes yet largely unknown. Here, using a fully physical metric of evaporative demand, that is, standardized short crop reference evapotranspiration, we introduce the concept of thirstwaves—prolonged periods of extremely high evaporative demand—and analyze their characteristics during 1981–2021 growing seasons for the conterminous US. Findings show that long-term mean spatial patterns demonstrated by thirstwave characteristics do not follow that of total or mean evaporative demand. Weighted for cropland area harvested, thirstwave intensity, duration, and frequency have increased by 0.06 mm d−1 decade−1, 0.10 days decade−1, and 0.39 events decade−1, respectively during 1981–2021. Statistically significant trends appear across 17%, 7%, and 23% of cropland area for intensity, frequency, and duration. Not only have thirstwaves increased in severity, but the likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased. Our work proposes a novel metric to describe periods of extremely elevated evaporative demand and presents a systematic analysis of such conditions historically for US croplands.

Time-lagged impacts of extreme, multi-year drought on tidal salt marsh plant invasion

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | June 11th, 2020

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme drought events, which can have dramatic consequences for ecosystems. Extreme drought may interact with o

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme drought events, which can have dramatic consequences for ecosystems. Extreme drought may interact with other stressors such as invasion by non-native species, yet little research has explored these dynamics. Here, we examine the physical mechanisms and temporal scale underlying a dieback of an invasive non-native plant, Lepidium latifolium, in tidal salt marshes of the San Francisco Bay, California, USA, during an extreme, multi-year drought occurring from 2012 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), we explored the relationship between eight years of estuarine salinity data and five years of L. latifolium density data from three marshes spanning a gradient of salinity across the San Francisco Bay. We found a significant time-lagged (3 yr) effect of estuarine salinity on L. latifolium density, with high salinities preceding reductions in L. latifolium densities and low salinities preceding increases. The most dramatic change in stem density, a 54% reduction in 2015, was preceded by a salinity increase of 43% from 2011 to 2012. We found the L. latifolium decline was driven by impacts on mature, rather than young, plants. Additionally, we tested the importance of local precipitation in driving L. latifolium densities in a one-season rain exclusion experiment. We found 100% exclusion of precipitation during one rainy season (January–mid-May) did not have a significant impact on densities of mature stands of L. latifolium. Our finding that estuarine salinity was a key driver of L. latifolium invasion dynamics suggests sea level rise, like extreme drought, may hinder L. latifolium invasion, as it will also raise estuarine salinities. Further, our study highlights the importance of temporal lags in understanding climate change impacts on biological invasions, which has received very little study to date.

Toward a better understanding of freshwater fish responses to an increasingly drought-stricken world

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries (Springer) | January 8th, 2019

Drought is a constant and important consequence of natural climatic processes and most freshwater fishes have adaptations to counter its effects. However, a changing glob

Drought is a constant and important consequence of natural climatic processes and most freshwater fishes have adaptations to counter its effects. However, a changing global climate coupled with increasing human demand for water is reducing the availability of fresh water to fishes and contributing to more frequent and intense drought around the globe. A clear understanding of how fishes, fish habitat, and fisheries are affected by extended drought is needed to help resolve conflicts over water. We therefore identify key questions and research themes to promote the conservation of freshwater fishes as drought increases in length, frequency and severity. (1) How does drought affect fish habitat? (2) What is drought tolerance in fishes? (3) What are drought refuges for fishes? (4) What kills fish during drought? (5) What is the nature of species succession in drought-stricken waters? (6) What are the long-term consequences of drought to fishes? (7) How does climate change affect drought-fish interactions? (8) How does drought influence fisheries? Our limited ability to provide answers to these questions indicates that fish diversity and abundance worldwide is threatened by drought. Planning, including collection of long-term data, is necessary so that conservation and water re-allocation strategies can be implemented in a timely manner to maintain habitats necessary to support biodiversity during drought periods. Without increased understanding of physiological and behavioural factors that determine the tolerance of fishes to drought, it will not be possible to establish realistic targets for management and restoration of populations and species confronting increasing drought frequency and severity.