Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2023

Ecological winners and losers of extreme drought in California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 20th, 2018

An unprecedented era of climatic volatility is altering ecosystems across our planet. The potential scale, pace and consequences of this global change have been m

An unprecedented era of climatic volatility is altering ecosystems across our planet. The potential scale, pace and consequences of this global change have been modelled extensively, yet little empirical research has quantified the impacts of extreme climate events on the composition of contemporary ecological communities. Here, we quantified the responses of 423 sympatric species of plants, arthropods, birds, reptiles and mammals to California’s drought of 2012–2015—the driest period in the past 1,200 years for this global biodiversity hotspot. Plants were most responsive to one-year water deficits, whereas vertebrates responded to longer-term deficits, and extended drought had the greatest impact on carnivorous animals. Locally rare species were more likely to increase in numbers and abundant species were more likely to decline in response to drought, and this negative density dependence was remarkably consistent across taxa and drought durations. Our system-wide analysis reveals that droughts indirectly promote the long-term persistence of rare species by stressing dominant species throughout the food web. These findings highlight processes that shape community structure in highly variable environments and provide insights into whole-community responses to modern climate volatility.

Economic and Environmental Implications of California Crop and Livestock, Adaptation to Climate Change

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Effects of montane watershed development on vulnerability of domestic groundwater supply during drought

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | April 1st, 2020

Climate change is expected to reduce recharge to montane aquifers in the western United States, but it is unclear how this will impact groundwater resources in waters

Climate change is expected to reduce recharge to montane aquifers in the western United States, but it is unclear how this will impact groundwater resources in watersheds where intensive surface-water development has disrupted the natural hydrologic regime. To better understand sources of recharge and associated vulnerabilities of groundwater supply in this setting, we made a detailed geochemical survey of domestic wells finished in fractured bedrock throughout the Yuba and Bear River watersheds (Sierra Nevada foothills, northern California) during historic drought (2015–2016). Stable isotopes of water and noble gas recharge temperatures closely tracked atmospheric lapse rates across a broad elevation gradient (100–2000 m), indicating groundwater inputs are dominated by local precipitation that rapidly recharges fractured bedrock during the winter wet-season. However, nearly one-quarter of wells had water isotopes that were fractionated by evaporation and warm recharge temperatures, indicative of mixing with dry-season recharge by surface water. Monte Carlo mixing models suggest evaporation-impacted groundwater samples are mixtures of local rain with an average of 28% ± 13% from diverted surface water that can recharge bedrock aquifers during the dry-season by either irrigation return flow or seepage from extensive distribution infrastructure. Wells that received recharge subsidies from diverted surface water had elevated levels of nitrate and coliform bacteria compared to those replenished exclusively by local precipitation, which are more vulnerable to supply shortage during drought. It is important to consider the impacts of increased surface-water development on the quantity and quality of groundwater recharge in rapidly developing montane watersheds.

Effects of more extreme precipitation regimes on maximum seasonal snow water equivalent

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 31st, 2012

This study demonstrates how more extreme precipitation regimes (MEPR) under a changed climate might affect seasonal snow water resources.

This study demonstrates how more extreme precipitation regimes (MEPR) under a changed climate might affect seasonal snow water resources.

Effects of Snow Water Storage on Hydrologic Partitioning Across the Mountainous, Western United States

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 12th, 2023

The retention of snow water storage and subsequent release of stored water in summer months resulted in increased hydrologic partitioning to streamflow. If the Snow Stora

The retention of snow water storage and subsequent release of stored water in summer months resulted in increased hydrologic partitioning to streamflow. If the Snow Storage Index (SSI) decreases with future warming, the volume of water partitioned streamflow will decrease non-uniformly across the western U.S. with substantial implications for ecosystemsand agricultural, industrial, and domestic water supplies.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 7th, 2017

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty i

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Elevated Grand Canyon groundwater recharge during the warm Early Holocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 2nd, 2023

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods and damaging erosion. A better understanding of Grand Canyon palaeoclimate and the long-term history of the summer monsoon from summer-sensitive palaeoclimate records will improve our ability to project future hydroclimatic changes under warmer conditions. Here we show multi-proxy evidence for an intensification of the Early Holocene (11,700–8,200 years ago) hydrological cycle linked to a stronger and expanded summer North American Monsoon from calcite oxygen and uranium isotopes in a uranium-series precisely dated stalagmite from a Grand Canyon cave. Our results suggest that subsurface infiltration was greater in the Early Holocene than today at Grand Canyon. A data–model comparison with an isotope-enabled climate model suggests that enhanced infiltration was due to an Early Holocene monsoon intensification associated with rising atmospheric temperature. Projections of a future increase in precipitation intensity or more frequent and expanded North American monsoon rain events may paradoxically result in increased subsurface infiltration at Grand Canyon and other high-altitude plateaus, even within the context of western North American aridification in a hotter climate.

Emergency Drought Barriers

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 26th, 2022

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 25th, 2024

Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationar

Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends