Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 14th, 2010

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, parti- cularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and per- sist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were re- markably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Future extreme precipitation amplified by intensified mesoscale moisture convergence

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 18th, 2025

Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with

Extreme precipitation events are driven by complex multiscale atmospheric dynamic interactions, fuelled by available moisture. They are expected to intensify with climate change, posing increasing risks to human communities and ecosystems. However, current low-resolution climate models struggle to accurately represent key extreme precipitation-generating phenomena, limiting our ability to generate robust and reliable future projections. Here we present an ensemble of climate simulations with a 10-to-25-km resolution and an improved representation of mesoscale convective systems to assess future changes in daily extreme precipitation and its drivers. Our high-resolution simulations more realistically capture the observed spatial distribution and intensity of daily extreme precipitation over the historical period than the 100-km resolution counterparts. In a future scenario with high carbon dioxide emissions, daily extreme precipitation over land could increase by about 41% by 2100, mainly as a result of increased mesoscale moisture convergence. The impact of this dynamical contribution to extreme precipitation is underestimated by a factor of three in the low-resolution model. These results highlight the crucial role of high-resolution climate modelling in constraining future extremes and informing more effective climate risk assessments and adaptation strategies. Click here for a Science news article on the model and its evolution.  

Future land-use related water demand in California

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | May 18th, 2019

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use r

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters (+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

Generalized Streamflow Relations of the San Bernardino and Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 19th, 1972

Geohydrology and ground-water-flow simulation of the Surprise Spring Basin aquifer system, San Bernardino, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 24th, 1991

Geohydrology and Numerical Model Analysis of Ground-Water Flow in the Goose Lake Basin, Oregon and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 15th, 1988

From the early 1970s until 1981, ground-water development in the Goose Lake basin underwent rapid growth. The number of new wells constructed and total State-perm

From the early 1970s until 1981, ground-water development in the Goose Lake basin underwent rapid growth. The number of new wells constructed and total State-permitted ground-water withdrawals for irrigation reflect the increase in ground-water development that occurred during this period. A strong agricultural economy spurred much of the development by providing incentives to expand irrigated acreage and modernize irrigation methods (from gravity to sprinkler systems). The drought of 1976-77 also encouraged farmers to develop ground water as a supplemental source to less reliable surface-water supplies used in the past. A preliminary assessment of the basin by OWRD staff (R. B. Almy, Oregon Department of Water Resources, written commun., 1981) concluded that, based on rates of water-level decline and increases in withdrawals, further and more detailed study of the basin was warranted. Between 1975 and 1982, water-level declines in some OWRD observation wells ranged from 0.5 to 3 feet per year, while permitted ground- water withdrawals increased at an average rate of 4,000acre-feetperyear(acre-ft/yr). Similarwater-level declines and increases in withdrawals occurred near Davis Creek on the California side of the basin during this period. This prompted a 1982 assessment of ground-water conditions by the California Department of Water Resources (California Department of Water Resources, 1982). At the time of OWRD's assessment it was felt that too little information on the actual rates of ground-water use, recharge, and the geohydrology of the aquifer system was available to allow proper management of the resource. If the rates of water-level decline and ground-water withdrawal that existed prior to 1981 had continued, issuance of new permits for ground-water use potentially could have been halted in order to determine if the Goose Lake basin should be designated as a "criticalground-water area." Sucha designation would allow the State of Oregon to limit the use of ground-water resources in the area. However, overdraft of the ground-water resource became a less urgent issue after 1982, when a downturn in the agricultural economy, combined with rising costs of electrical power (and thus pumping), resulted in a widespread reversion to dryland farming and low-water-use crops. Adverse agricultural market conditions halted the growth of ground-water development in the basin; these trends could conceivably reverse in the future to spur growth again. In recognition of this potential and the need to build an understanding of the basin in order to properly manage future ground-water development, OWRD entered into a joint program of study with the U.S.Geological Survey. The first of a proposed series of ground-water basin assessments, this 1-year study was started in 1986 with the goals of characterizing the nature, extent, and properties of water-bearing rocks within the basin and describing and quantifying the components of recharge to, and discharge from, the basin. Additionally, this study was designed toe valuate the adequacy of available and readily collectable information to quantitatively describe the geohydrology of the basin. If this information was found to be inadequate, the study would also identify the data needed to better describe, understand, and manage the ground-water resource.

Geohydrology and Simulated Response to Ground-Water Pumpage in Carson Valley, A River-Dominated Basin in Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 2nd, 1986

This investigation of the ground-water hydrology in Carson Valley was conducted from 1980 through 1985 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Douglas County.

This investigation of the ground-water hydrology in Carson Valley was conducted from 1980 through 1985 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Douglas County. The purpose of the study was to: (1) collect, compile, and analyze hydrologic data to quantify the hydrology of the valley and to enhance the understanding of the valley's geohydrologic system; and (2) develop a ground-water model that would simulate the response of the hydrologic system to applied stresses and that could be used to estimate the probable hydrologic effects of various development alternatives. This report presents the results of the investigation. Work began with a gravity survey in 1980 to determine the depth to bedrock in Carson Valley; the results are discussed in detail in a separate publication (Maurer, 1986). From 1981 to 1983, work included: (1) measurement of water-level fluctuations and surface-water runoff, (2) drilling of additional observation wells, (3) collection of ground-water pumpage data and measurement of pump efficiencies, and (4) compilation of existing data reports and drillers 1 logs to obtain estimates of geohydrologic characteristics of the ground-water reservoir. Development of a water budget and initial estimates of hydraulic conductivities and specific yield were accomplished in 1983. From 1983 to 1985, the ground-water model was developed and calibrated, and simulations of possible ground-water development were made. The model, which represents a compilation of all available data, was used to (1) test estimates of the geohydrologic characteristics of the ground-water reservoir, (2) evaluate the components of the water budget for the basin, (3) enhance the understanding of the hydrologic flow system in the basin, and (4) simulate the effect of various possible developmental alternatives on Carson River outflow, evapotranspiration, ground-water levels, and ground-water storage in the valley.