Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 5th, 2017

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter st

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Future precipitation increase from very high resolution ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 15th, 2020

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often i

Precipitation extremes will likely intensify under climate change. However, much uncertainty surrounds intensification of high-magnitude events that are often inadequately resolved by global climate models. In this analysis, we develop a framework involving targeted dynamical downscaling of historical and future extreme precipitation events produced by a large ensemble of a global climate model. This framework is applied to extreme “atmospheric river” storms in California. We find a substantial (10 to 40%) increase in total accumulated precipitation, with the largest relative increases in valleys and mountain lee-side areas. We also report even higher and more spatially uniform increases in hourly maximum precipitation intensity, which exceed Clausius- Clapeyron expectations. Up to 85% of this increase arises from thermodynamically driven increases in water vapor, with a smaller contribution by increased zonal wind strength. These findings imply substantial challenges for water and flood management in California, given future increases in intense atmospheric river-induced precipitation extremes.

Generalized Streamflow Relations of the San Bernardino and Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 19th, 1972

Geohydrology and ground-water-flow simulation of the Surprise Spring Basin aquifer system, San Bernardino, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 24th, 1991

Geohydrology and Numerical Model Analysis of Ground-Water Flow in the Goose Lake Basin, Oregon and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 15th, 1988

From the early 1970s until 1981, ground-water development in the Goose Lake basin underwent rapid growth. The number of new wells constructed and total State-perm

From the early 1970s until 1981, ground-water development in the Goose Lake basin underwent rapid growth. The number of new wells constructed and total State-permitted ground-water withdrawals for irrigation reflect the increase in ground-water development that occurred during this period. A strong agricultural economy spurred much of the development by providing incentives to expand irrigated acreage and modernize irrigation methods (from gravity to sprinkler systems). The drought of 1976-77 also encouraged farmers to develop ground water as a supplemental source to less reliable surface-water supplies used in the past. A preliminary assessment of the basin by OWRD staff (R. B. Almy, Oregon Department of Water Resources, written commun., 1981) concluded that, based on rates of water-level decline and increases in withdrawals, further and more detailed study of the basin was warranted. Between 1975 and 1982, water-level declines in some OWRD observation wells ranged from 0.5 to 3 feet per year, while permitted ground- water withdrawals increased at an average rate of 4,000acre-feetperyear(acre-ft/yr). Similarwater-level declines and increases in withdrawals occurred near Davis Creek on the California side of the basin during this period. This prompted a 1982 assessment of ground-water conditions by the California Department of Water Resources (California Department of Water Resources, 1982). At the time of OWRD's assessment it was felt that too little information on the actual rates of ground-water use, recharge, and the geohydrology of the aquifer system was available to allow proper management of the resource. If the rates of water-level decline and ground-water withdrawal that existed prior to 1981 had continued, issuance of new permits for ground-water use potentially could have been halted in order to determine if the Goose Lake basin should be designated as a "criticalground-water area." Sucha designation would allow the State of Oregon to limit the use of ground-water resources in the area. However, overdraft of the ground-water resource became a less urgent issue after 1982, when a downturn in the agricultural economy, combined with rising costs of electrical power (and thus pumping), resulted in a widespread reversion to dryland farming and low-water-use crops. Adverse agricultural market conditions halted the growth of ground-water development in the basin; these trends could conceivably reverse in the future to spur growth again. In recognition of this potential and the need to build an understanding of the basin in order to properly manage future ground-water development, OWRD entered into a joint program of study with the U.S.Geological Survey. The first of a proposed series of ground-water basin assessments, this 1-year study was started in 1986 with the goals of characterizing the nature, extent, and properties of water-bearing rocks within the basin and describing and quantifying the components of recharge to, and discharge from, the basin. Additionally, this study was designed toe valuate the adequacy of available and readily collectable information to quantitatively describe the geohydrology of the basin. If this information was found to be inadequate, the study would also identify the data needed to better describe, understand, and manage the ground-water resource.

Geohydrology and Simulated Response to Ground-Water Pumpage in Carson Valley, A River-Dominated Basin in Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 2nd, 1986

This investigation of the ground-water hydrology in Carson Valley was conducted from 1980 through 1985 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Douglas County.

This investigation of the ground-water hydrology in Carson Valley was conducted from 1980 through 1985 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Douglas County. The purpose of the study was to: (1) collect, compile, and analyze hydrologic data to quantify the hydrology of the valley and to enhance the understanding of the valley's geohydrologic system; and (2) develop a ground-water model that would simulate the response of the hydrologic system to applied stresses and that could be used to estimate the probable hydrologic effects of various development alternatives. This report presents the results of the investigation. Work began with a gravity survey in 1980 to determine the depth to bedrock in Carson Valley; the results are discussed in detail in a separate publication (Maurer, 1986). From 1981 to 1983, work included: (1) measurement of water-level fluctuations and surface-water runoff, (2) drilling of additional observation wells, (3) collection of ground-water pumpage data and measurement of pump efficiencies, and (4) compilation of existing data reports and drillers 1 logs to obtain estimates of geohydrologic characteristics of the ground-water reservoir. Development of a water budget and initial estimates of hydraulic conductivities and specific yield were accomplished in 1983. From 1983 to 1985, the ground-water model was developed and calibrated, and simulations of possible ground-water development were made. The model, which represents a compilation of all available data, was used to (1) test estimates of the geohydrologic characteristics of the ground-water reservoir, (2) evaluate the components of the water budget for the basin, (3) enhance the understanding of the hydrologic flow system in the basin, and (4) simulate the effect of various possible developmental alternatives on Carson River outflow, evapotranspiration, ground-water levels, and ground-water storage in the valley.

Geohydrology, Simulation of Regional Groundwater Flow, and Assessment of Water-Management Strategies, Twentynine Palms Area, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 28th, 2011

The Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center (MCAGCC) Twentynine Palms, California, overlies the Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins of the Morongo gr

The Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center (MCAGCC) Twentynine Palms, California, overlies the Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins of the Morongo groundwater basin in the southern Mojave Desert. Historically, the MCAGCC has relied on groundwater pumped from the Surprise Spring subbasin to provide all of its potable water supply. Groundwater pumpage in the Surprise Spring subbasin has caused groundwater levels in the subbasin to decline by as much as 190 feet (ft) from 1953 through 2007. Groundwater from the other subbasins contains relatively high concentrations of fluoride, arsenic, and (or) dissolved solids, making it unsuitable for potable uses without treatment. The potable groundwater supply in Surprise Spring subbasin is diminishing because of pumping-induced overdraft and because of more restrictive Federal drinking-water standards on arsenic concentrations. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the MCAGCC, completed this study to better understand groundwater resources in the area and to help establish a long-term strategy for regional water-resource development. The Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins are filled with sedimentary deposits of Tertiary age, alluvial fan deposits of Quaternary-Tertiary age, and younger alluvial and playa deposits of Quaternary age. Combined, this sedimentary sequence reaches a maximum thickness of more than 16,000 ft in the Deadman and Mesquite subbasins. The sedimentary deposits of Tertiary age yield a small amount of water to wells, and this water commonly contains high concentrations of fluoride, arsenic, and dissolved solids. The alluvial fan deposits form the principal water-bearing unit in the study area and have a combined thickness of 250 to more than 1,000 ft. The younger alluvial and playa deposits are unsaturated throughout most of the study area. Lithologic and downhole geophysical logs were used to divide the Quaternary/ Tertiary alluvial fan deposits into two aquifers (referred to as the upper and the middle aquifers) and the Tertiary sedimentary deposits into a single aquifer (referred to as the lower aquifer). In general, wells perforated in the upper aquifer yield more water than wells perforated in the middle and lower aquifers. The study area is dominated by extensive faulting and moderate to intense folding that has displaced or deformed the pre-Tertiary basement complex as well as the overlying Tertiary and Quaternary deposits. Many of these faults act as barriers to the lateral movement of groundwater flow and form many of the boundaries of the groundwater subbasins. The principal recharge to the study area is groundwater underflow across the western and southern boundaries that originates as runoff in the surrounding mountains. Groundwater discharges naturally from the study area as spring flow, as groundwater underflow to downstream basins, and as water vapor to the atmosphere by transpiration of phreatophytes and direct evaporation from moist soil. The annual volume of water that naturally recharged to or discharged from the groundwater flow system in the study area during predevelopment conditions was estimated to be 1,010 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr). About 90 percent of this recharge originated as runoff from the Little San Bernardino and the Pinto Mountains to the south, and the remainder originated as runoff from the San Bernardino Mountains to the west. Evapotranspiration by phreatophytes near Mesquite Lake (dry) was the primary form of predevelopment groundwater discharge. From 1953 through 2007, approximately 139,400 acre-feet (acre-ft) of groundwater was pumped by the MCAGCC from the Surprise Spring subbasin. A regional-scale numerical groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW–2000 for the Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins. The aquifer system was simulated by using three model layers representing the upper, middle, and lower aquifers. Measured groundwater levels for predevelopment conditions (before 1953) and for the period 1953 through 2007 were used to calibrate the groundwater- flow model. The simulated steady-state (predevelopment) recharge was about 980 acre-ft/yr; about 90 percent of the recharge was in the Mesquite subbasin. Most of the simulated steady-state discharge occurred as evapotranspiration at the Mesquite Lake (dry). A total of about 145,450 acre-ft of groundwater was simulated as being pumped from the model domain during the transient simulation period (1953–2007); about 139,400 acre-ft of the total was extracted from the Surprise Spring subbasin. The transient simulation indicates that almost all of the groundwater pumped in the Surprise Spring subbasin comes from groundwater storage, which is consistent with the measured long-term declines in groundwater levels. The calibrated groundwater model was used to evaluate the potential effects on water levels and aquifer conditions in the Surprise Spring, Deadman, Mesquite, and Mainside subbasins for water-management strategies being considered by the MCAGCC to meet the projected water demand at the base for 2008–2017. One of the main objectives of the water-management strategies is to reduce pumpage from the Surprise Spring subbasin. Reducing groundwater pumpage in the Surprise Spring subbasin by about 38 percent (about 1,345 acre-ft/yr) substantially decreased or reversed simulated hydraulic-head declines in the subbasin. Redistributing about 15 percent of the 2007 groundwater pumpage (about 550 acre-ft/yr) from the Surprise Spring to the Mainside subbasin resulted in more than 60 ft of simulated declines in hydraulic head in the Mainside subbasin by 2017; however, redistributing about 22 percent of the 2007 pumpage (about 800 acre-ft/yr) from the Surprise Spring subbasin to the Deadman subbasin resulted in 5–10 ft of simulated hydraulic-head decline in the Deadman subbasin. The water-management scenarios simulated for this study demonstrate how the calibrated regional model can be utilized to evaluate the hydrologic effects of a water-management strategy.

Geologic Analysis, Ventura River Watershed

Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) | March 3rd, 2020

 This memorandum summarizes geologic analysis performed for the Ventura River Watershed (VRW) by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) in support of nume

 This memorandum summarizes geologic analysis performed for the Ventura River Watershed (VRW) by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates, Inc. (DBS&A) in support of numerical model development. The geologic analysis presented herein will be used, in conjunction with other information as described in the project Study Plan (Geosyntec and DBS&A, 2019), to assign three-dimensional model layer geometry, initial model hydraulic properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity), and the presence of boundary conditions. This geologic analysis is based on data available to DBS&A at the time the analysis was conducted. We anticipate that development of the VRW geologic conceptual model may be revised as additional data becomes available and as numerical model development proceeds. 

Geology, Ground-Water Hydrology, Geochemistry, and Ground-Water Simulation of the Beaumont and Banning Storage Units, San Gorgonio Pass Area, Riverside County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 14th, 2006

Ground-water has been the only source of potable water supply for residential, industrial, and agricultural users in the Beaumont and Banning storage units of the San Gor

Ground-water has been the only source of potable water supply for residential, industrial, and agricultural users in the Beaumont and Banning storage units of the San Gorgonio Pass area, Riverside County, California. Ground-water levels in the Beaumont area have declined as much as 100 feet between the early 1920s and early 2000s, and numerous natural springs have stopped flowing. In 1961, the San Gorgonio Pass Water Agency (SGPWA) entered into a contract with the California State Department of Water Resources to receive 17,300 acre-feet per year of water to be delivered by the California State Water Project (SWP) to supplement natural recharge. Currently (2005), a pipeline is delivering SWP water into the area, and the SGPWA is artificially recharging the ground-water system using recharge ponds located along Little San Gorgonio Creek in Cherry Valley with the SWP water. In addition to artificial recharge, SGPWA is considering the direct delivery of SWP water for the irrigation of local golf courses and for agricultural supply in lieu of ground-water pumpage. To better understand the potential hydrologic effects of different water-management alternatives on ground-water levels and movement in the Beaumont and Banning storage units, existing geohydrologic and geochemical data were compiled, new data from a basin-wide ground-water level and water-quality monitoring network were collected, monitoring wells were installed near the Little San Gorgonio Creek recharge ponds, geohydrologic and geochemical analyses were completed, and a ground-water flow simulation model was developed. The San Gorgonio Pass area was divided into several storage units on the basis of mapped or inferred faults. This study addresses primarily the Beaumont and Banning storage units. The geologic units in the study area were generalized into crystalline basement rocks and sedimentary deposits. The younger sedimentary deposits and the surficial deposits are the main water-bearing deposits in the San Gorgonio Pass area. The water-bearing deposits were divided into three aquifers: (1) the perched aquifer, (2) the upper aquifer, and (3) the lower aquifer based on lithologic and downhole geophysical logs. Natural recharge in the San Gorgonio Pass area was estimated using INFILv3, a deterministic distributed- parameter precipitation-runoff model. The INFILv3 model simulated that the potential recharge of precipitation and runoff in the Beaumont and Banning storage units was about 3,710 acre-feet per year and that the potential recharge in 28 sub-drainage basins upstream of the storage units was about 6,180 acre-feet per year. The water supply for the Beaumont and Banning storage units is supplied by pumping ground water from wells in the Canyon (Edgar and Banning Canyons), Banning Bench, Beaumont, and Banning storage units. Total annual pumpage from the Beaumont and Banning storage units ranged from about 1,630 acre-feet in 1936 to about 20,000 acre-feet in 2003. Ground-water levels declined by as much as 100 feet in the Beaumont storage unit from 1926–2003 in response to ground-water pumping of about 450,160 acre-feet during this period. Since ground-water development began in the San Gorgonio Pass area, there have been several sources of artificial recharge to the basin including return flow from applied water on crops, golf courses, and landscape; septic-tank seepage; and infiltration of storm runoff diversions and imported water into recharge ponds. Return flow from applied water and septic-tank seepage was estimated to reach a maximum of about 8,100 acre-feet per year in 2003. Owing to the great depth of water in much of study area (in excess of 150 feet), the return flow and septic-tank seepage takes years to decades to reach the water table. Stable-isotope data indicate that the source of ground-water recharge was precipitation from storms passing through the San Gorgonio Pass as opposed to runoff from the higher altitudes of the San Bernardino Mountains. In addition, these data indicate that little if any of the ground water in the fractured crystalline rocks flows across the Banning Fault into the Beaumont storage unit. Tritium concentrations indicate that little to no recharge has reached the water table since 1952 in most areas of the Beaumont and Banning storage units. In general, the uncorrected carbon-14 ages of ground water sampled from wells in the Beaumont, Banning, and surrounding storage units ranged from about 400 to 17,500 years before present. The older water was sampled in southeastern part of Beaumont storage unit and in the Banning storage unit, and ranged from 1,900 to 17,500 years before present. To better understand the dynamics of ground-water flow and the potential effects of water-level changes resulting from artificial recharge in the San Gorgonio Pass area, a regional-scale, numerical ground-water flow model was developed using MODFLOW-96. This model will be used by water managers to help manage the ground-water resources in the San Gorgonio Pass area. Results of the steady-state simulation indicate that the total inflow rate, or recharge, was about 6,590 acre-feet per year with about 3,710 acre-feet per year from areal recharge, about 2,670 acre-feet per year from mountain-front recharge, and about 210 acre-feet per year from the surrounding older sedimentary deposits. The simulated water budget for 1926–2003 indicates that of the total simulated volume of water pumped from the aquifer (450,160 acre-feet), about 50 percent was derived from depletion of ground-water storage (222,660 acre-feet), about 21 percent was derived from the reduction of underflow to the Cabazon and San Timoteo storage units (about 96,280 acre-feet), about 19 percent was derived from a reduction of ground-water outflow to the stream channels draining the San Timoteo storage unit (about 86,030 acre-feet), about 8 percent was derived from irrigation return flows and septic-tank seepage (about 36,780 acre-feet), and about 2 percent was derived from an increase in ground-water underflow from the surrounding older sedimentary deposits (about 8,410 acre-feet). The calibrated ground-water flow model was used to simulate the effects of four water-management scenarios being considered by SGPWA for the period 2004–13. In general, the results of the water-management scenarios indicate that artificial recharge in the Little San Gorgonio Creek recharge ponds primarily benefits the area north of the Cherry Valley Fault. For the scenario that used SWP water in lieu of ground water for golf course irrigation and for agricultural use, hydraulic heads increased by about 50 feet. None of the water-management scenarios significantly benefited the Banning storage unit.