Reduced Moisture Transport Linked to Drought Propagation Across North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 24th, 2019

Droughts reduce the availability of water, which affects communities and ecosystems worldwide. Recent studies have shown that droughts may travel up to thousands of kilom

Droughts reduce the availability of water, which affects communities and ecosystems worldwide. Recent studies have shown that droughts may travel up to thousands of kilometers across continents, but it is still unclear what are the reasons behind these observed drought displacements. While there may be several reasons, we study one particular way in which droughts may be able to travel across continents. Our idea is that a drought in one area may decrease evaporation locally, which will reduce water vapor in the air. As the wind blows, it will transport drier air, which may lead to less precipitation downwind. We find links between droughts that take place in different regions across North America, suggesting that droughts may travel in this way, for example, from the U.S. Southwest to the U.S. Midwest. We also show that the lower evaporation that took place over the western United States, likely due to droughts in the region in 2012, increased the severity of the drought in the U.S. Midwest that year. Our study highlights the importance of sustainable land use management and the need for coordination between communities in upwind and downwind regions to reduce drought risks. It may also help improve future drought predictions.

Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | October 5th, 2016

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

Remote linkages to anomalous winter atmospheric ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 24th, 2017

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has previously been linked to the persistence of atmospheric high atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Ocean (nickname

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has previously been linked to the persistence of atmospheric high atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Ocean (nicknamed the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge”), which prevented winter storms from reaching the coast over several consecutive years. There has been much discussion regarding why this high‐pressure system has been so persistent—and some scientists have previously suggested that unusual ocean temperature patterns in the Pacific, reductions in Arctic sea ice, or random weather variations may have played a role. In this study, we investigate relationships between atmospheric high pressure over the North Pacific and possible links to ocean conditions using both real‐world observations and climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent atmospheric high pressure similar to that which occurred during California's 2013–2016 drought can be partially linked to unusual Pacific Ocean temperatures and that knowledge of such ocean conditions may offer foresight regarding the potential for future droughts in this region.

Report on the Delta Drought Response Pilot Program for Water Year 2023

Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Conservancy | July 24th, 2024

This report describes the 2023 Delta Drought Response Pilot Program (DDRPP/Program), provides an analysis of the Program’s effectiveness, and describes the Program outc

This report describes the 2023 Delta Drought Response Pilot Program (DDRPP/Program), provides an analysis of the Program’s effectiveness, and describes the Program outcomes, including findings and recommendations for application in future agricultural water conservation programs. The DDRPP launched in January 2022 as a response to the continuing risk of drought in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Watershed. This report focuses on the results of the 2023 Program, with a brief analysis comparing both years of the Program. For detailed information on the 2022 Program and 2022 analysis, see the 2022 DDRPP Final Report (Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Conservancy, 2023).

Report on Voluntary Diversion Reduction Program Among in-Delta Riparian Water Right Claimants

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | March 11th, 2016

Facing a fourth consecutive year of drought in 2015 and consequential threat of curtailments, farmers in the Delta proposed a voluntary program to significantly reduce th

Facing a fourth consecutive year of drought in 2015 and consequential threat of curtailments, farmers in the Delta proposed a voluntary program to significantly reduce their surface water diversions during the critical summer growing season. This is a report describing the context, origin, objectives, regulatory framework, implementation and results of that program.

Review of the Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | December 18th, 2020

Spurred by an ongoing multi-year drought, decreasing system storage, and growing demands for Colorado River Water, in December 2007, Secretary of the Interior (Se

Spurred by an ongoing multi-year drought, decreasing system storage, and growing demands for Colorado River Water, in December 2007, Secretary of the Interior (Secretary) Kempthorne approved the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and the Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (Guidelines) (U.S. Department of the Interior [Department], 2007). The Guidelines, which are anticipated to be in place for an interim period through 2026, provide operating criteria for Lake Powell and Lake Mead including provisions designed to provide a greater degree of certainty to water users about timing and volumes of potential water delivery reductions, and additional operating flexibility to conserve and store water in the system. The interim nature of the Guidelines provided the opportunity to gain valuable experience for the management of Lake Powell and Lake Mead under modified operations and improve the basis for making future operational decisions, whether during the interim period or after. The requirement to document this experience is set forth in Section XI.G.7.D. of the ROD: “Beginning no later than December 31, 2020, the Secretary shall initiate a formal review for purposes of evaluating the effectiveness of these Guidelines. The Secretary shall consult with the Basin States in initiating this review” (7.D. Review). In December 2019, Secretary Bernhardt directed the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to begin a review of the Guidelines in early 2020. This Report is the culmination of that process. This Report documents Reclamation’s operational experience and provides a retrospective evaluation of whether operations and actions specified by the Guidelines have adhered to common themes and been effective with respect to the purpose stated in the ROD. The results of this evaluation are not intended to imply correctness of any particular operational provision or recommend future policies or actions. Reclamation anticipates that this Report will be a valuable source of information during upcoming activities in support of post-2026 operations – but expects this Report to be only one of many sources of information that will be available to guide that process and inform upcoming decisions on operations. Reclamation recognizes there are other areas of interest beyond the scope of this Report that should be considered in future discussions. These topics include but are not limited to the impacts to environmental, recreational, hydropower, and water quality resources, how to meaningfully engage perspectives from a diverse group of partners and stakeholders, and other recommendations from tribes, states and other stakeholders. Reclamation anticipates that additional studies and activities will be undertaken and used to inform discussions related to future operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Click here for Final Report, Appendix A – Operational Documentation for Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations Under the Colorado River 2007 Interim Guidelines Years 2008 to 2019

Running Dry: Weathering the Great California Drought

Harvard University | December 1st, 2016

Essays include: "Physical Mechanisms of the California Drought" - Richard Seager "Droughts and the Global Economy: Lessons from California" - Jay R. Lund

Essays include: "Physical Mechanisms of the California Drought" - Richard Seager "Droughts and the Global Economy: Lessons from California" - Jay R. Lund "Addressing Variability: Adaptation and Innovation in California’s Water Systems" - Laila Kasuri "The California Case: Managing Groundwater in Irrigated Agriculture" - Josué Medellín-Azuara "The Hidden Health Consequences of Drought" - Rory Stewart & Erika Eitland "California’s Unconventional Energy-Water Nexus" - Jonathan Buonocore, Don Kriens, Susan Cahalan, Drew Michanowicz, Alexandra Gast, Kate Konschnik "The 2 R’s: What Brazil Can Teach Us About California’s Drought" -  Luis Augusto Bertoni Strengari "Carlsbad Desalination: A Leap in Water Prices, for the Better?" - Aldís Elfarsdóttir

San Luis Obispo Coastkeeper v. Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District

United States District Court, Central District of California | September 23rd, 2022

Science and Decision Making: Water Management and Tree‐Ring Data in the Western United States

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | October 5th, 2009

Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prom

Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree‐ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree‐ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in‐depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree‐ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree‐ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science‐policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers.

Securing Color River Supplies - An Urban-Agriculture Partnership in the Palo Verde Valley

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | March 16th, 2022