West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments: Irrigation Demand and Reservoir Evaporation Projections

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | February 5th, 2015

Section 9503 of the SECURE Water Act, Subtitle F of Title IX of P.L. 111-11 (2009) (SECURE Water Act), authorizes the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to evaluate the

Section 9503 of the SECURE Water Act, Subtitle F of Title IX of P.L. 111-11 (2009) (SECURE Water Act), authorizes the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to evaluate the risks and impacts of climate change in each of the eight major Reclamation river basins identified in the Act, and to work with stakeholders to identify climate adaptation strategies. Reclamation implements Section 9503 of the SWA through the Department of Interior’s WaterSMART Program1, which is working to achieve a sustainable water strategy to meet the Nation’s water needs now and for the future. Through Basin Studies, part of WaterSMART, Reclamation works with State and local partners to evaluate the ability to meet future water demands within a river basin and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies of the potential impacts of climate change. Through another activity, West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments (WWCRA), Reclamation is working to provide projections of future changes in water supplies, water demands, and river system operations that could result from changes in climate. As part of WWCRA, Reclamation has conducted an analysis of the potential changes in crop irrigation demand in eight major river basins in the West and projections of evaporation for 12 reservoirs within those river basins when considering observed and projected impacts of climate change. This report contains the results of that analysis. The findings presented in this report are intended to be used for future basin-specific WWCRA impact assessments and Basin Studies conducted under WaterSMART if the teams conducting those studies elect to do so. This technical assessment report provides: (1) an analysis of changes in irrigation demand, and (2) an analysis of changes in evaporation for selected reservoirs across the major Reclamation river basins with respect to presently observed and projected future impacts of global climate change. The analysis involved developing irrigation demand and reservoir evaporation projections associated with World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project3 (WCRP CMIP3) climate projections that have been bias-corrected and spatially downscaled (BCSD) and served at the following Web site: http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/dcpInterface.html. For the purposes of this study, CMIP3 climate projections were used because they represented the best available collection of climate projections at the onset of this effort (summer 2011 which was begun prior to the release of CMIP5). Although the CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections are considered equally likely potential climate futures at this time, there is significant variability in the two sets of projections. This is especially true with regard to precipitation projections, and it is significant to note the potential impact of this variability on future irrigation demand and net evaporation estimates. Changes to irrigation demand (model, described below) were analyzed for five climate change scenarios (warm-dry, warm-wet, hot-dry, hot-wet, and central tendency – ensemble median) that were informed by 112 BCSD-CMIP3 projections at three future periods: 2020s (years 2010-2039), 2050s (years 2040–2069), and 2080s (2070-2099) with 1950–1999 as the baseline period. The reservoir evaporation modeling (described below) was performed as transient simulations using the individual 112 BCSD-CMIP3 projections. Both the irrigation demands modeling and the reservoir evaporation modeling used observed data from weather stations representative of irrigated land areas and reservoir sites in a secondary bias correction step to account for local scale climate conditions in the climate change scenarios. Although it would be ideal to calculate future irrigation demands for all 112 projections using the transient method as was done for the future reservoir evaporation estimates, such calculations were not feasible given the multiple crops and numerous locations modeled.

Yolo Bypass Salmon Habitat Restoration and Fish Passage Analytical Tool Review

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | October 1st, 2017

NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) have issued a Biological Opinion (BiOp) on the long-term operat

NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) have issued a Biological Opinion (BiOp) on the long-term operations of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP) that includes Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPA) designed to alleviate jeopardy to listed species and adverse modification of critical habitat. NMFS’ RPA requires the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to increase juvenile flood plain rearing habitat and improve adult fish passage for ESA-listed salmonids and sturgeon. The BiOp requires seventy-three (73) habitat restoration actions, five of which are specific to the Yolo Bypass. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and Reclamation have developed project alternatives for the Draft Yolo Bypass Fish Passage and Habitat Restoration EIS/EIR focused on the following two Yolo Bypass actions, which are the subject of this review:  - Increase seasonal floodplain inundation in the lower Sacramento River Basin  - Improve fish passage throughout the Yolo Bypass Alternatives The alternatives developed to address these two actions consist of a notch in the Fremont Weir, with alternative locations and configurations (width and weir-crest elevations), designed to increase the frequency and duration of hydraulic connectivity between the main-stem Sacramento River and the Yolo Bypass and to improve fish passage. Six alternative locations / configurations for a notch were identified.