Past and Projected Future Droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 29th, 2024

Past Groundwater Drought in the North American Cordillera

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 11th, 2024

Piloting a Water Rights Information System for California

Center for Law, Energy, and the Environment (CLEE) | July 15th, 2021

California’s complex water management challenges are growing and intensifying. Systemic stressors like the more frequent and severe droughts and floods driven by climat

California’s complex water management challenges are growing and intensifying. Systemic stressors like the more frequent and severe droughts and floods driven by climate change are only making it harder to respond. Accordingly, California needs to dramatically improve the ability of local, regional, and State entities to make agile and effective water management decisions. We believe doing so will require enhanced understanding of our water resources and how they align with the needs of a range of agencies and stakeholders. Water rights data provide a crucial opportunity for advancing this understanding. We find that modernizing water rights data is feasible, affordable, and can increase transparency and clarity for better decision-making.

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | July 28th, 2022

With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas

With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A sharp increase in petroleum prices has led to discussions about expanding oil production and renewable energy sources. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on environmental issues conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California from July 8 to 15, 2022.

Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 21st, 2017

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. Whil

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climatemodels increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K−1 globally, 4–5% K−1 over land and 2–4% K−1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

Preparing for California’s Next Drought—Changes Since 1987-92

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 19th, 2000

Preparation of this report was initiated in response to the unusually dry conditions experienced through January 2000. California was in the second year of a La Niña eve

Preparation of this report was initiated in response to the unusually dry conditions experienced through January 2000. California was in the second year of a La Niña event, typically characterized by dryer than normal conditions in the southern part of the State. December 1999 was one of the driest Decembers on record. Snowpack levels in early January in the northern Sierra, the source of much of California’s developed water supply, were only some 20 percent of seasonal average. Given that California had previously experienced a record five consecutive wet years, it seemed probable that 2000 would not be another wet year.  Subsequently, climatic conditions demonstrated the great variability typical of California. Substantial precipitation and snowpack accumulation brought Northern California to near average water conditions before the end of February. A dry 2000 would not have constituted a drought for most Californians, especially not with storage in the State’s major reservoirs at above average levels as a consequence of the past five wet years. It was recognized, however, that planning should begin for actions to be taken in the event that the following year was also dry. In response to the substantial public interest created by the dry weather conditions, the Department evaluated water supply conditions, changed circumstances since the last drought, and other factors that would affect drought readiness in 2001. The purpose of this report is to review items that the Department should consider in near-term drought planning, putting California’s conditions today into perspective with experiences gained in the 1987-92 drought. The report begins with an overview of California hydrology and water supply, then describes conditions encountered in the 1987-92 drought. Changed conditions since that drought are summarized, and their implications discussed. The report concludes with a list of actions that the Department could take to respond to future drought conditions. It is essential that California prepare for the return of very dry conditions. On June 9, 2000 Governor Davis and Interior Secretary Babbitt announced a “Framework for Action” as the completion of a five-year planning program to implement specific actions of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program. The Framework included a recommendation that Governor Davis appoint a panel to develop a Drought Contingency Plan by the end of 2000. This report will be used to brief the panel on drought actions considered to date, with the expectation that further and more focused actions/programs may be included in the Governor’s Drought Contingency Plan.

Priorities for California's Water: Responding to the Changing Climate

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 18th, 2021

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-mo

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-moving drought—coming on the heels of the record-breaking 2012–16 drought—is a stark reminder that we must accelerate preparation for the disruptive changes underway. Californians have taken steps to address major threats to our water resources. But a recent IPCC report underscored that the climate is changing faster than anticipated, and that many of these changes are already locked in. Rising temperatures are making our winters shorter and our droughts more intense, outpacing our ability to manage water supplies and the natural environment. We need to act with urgency to adapt to these changes. And we need to rethink how we store water. This brief examines how the current drought and a changing climate are affecting California’s ability to manage water and lays out priority actions to address major challenges—including some urgent short-term actions should the drought continue into next year.

Priorities for California’s Water: Are We Ready for Climate Change?

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 12th, 2024

California faces many immediate challenges around water management, but as the record-breaking heat of 2024 makes clear, temperatures are rising—and Californians are co

California faces many immediate challenges around water management, but as the record-breaking heat of 2024 makes clear, temperatures are rising—and Californians are contending with the consequences. In a PPIC poll earlier this year, residents named climate change, forest fires and wildfires, and water supply and drought as the most important environmental issues facing the state. 

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 28th, 2015

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated mi

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satel- lite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.