Assessing the accuracy of OpenET satellite-based evapotranspiration data to support water resource and land management applications

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 15th, 2024

Remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data offer strong potential to support data-driven approaches for sustainable water management. However, practitioners require rob

Remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data offer strong potential to support data-driven approaches for sustainable water management. However, practitioners require robust and rigorous accuracy assessments of such data. The OpenET system, which includes an ensemble of six remote sensing models, was developed to increase access to field-scale (30 m) ET data for the contiguous United States. Here we compare OpenET outputs against data from 152 in situ stations, primarily eddy covariance flux towers, deployed across the contiguous United States. Mean absolute error at cropland sites for the OpenET ensemble value is 15.8 mm per month (17% of mean observed ET), mean bias error is −5.3 mm per month (6%) and r2 is 0.9. Results for shrublands and forested sites show higher inter-model variability and lower accuracy relative to croplands. High accuracy and multi-model convergence across croplands demonstrate the utility of a model ensemble approach, and enhance confidence among ET data practitioners, including the agricultural water resource management community.

Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 14th, 2022

Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain sn

Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain snowpacks worldwide, altering snowmelt magnitude and timing. Here the global warming level leading to widespread and persistent mountain snowpack decline, termed low-to-no snow, is estimated for the world’s most latitudinally contiguous mountain range, the American Cordillera. We show that a combination of dynamical, thermodynamical and hypsometric factors results in an asymmetric emergence of low-to-no-snow conditions within the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Low-to-no-snow emergence occurs approximately 20 years earlier in the southern hemisphere, at a third of the local warming level, and coincides with runoff efficiency declines (8% average) in both dry and wet years. The prevention of a low-to-no-snow future in either hemisphere requires the level of global warming to be held to, at most, +2.5 °C.

August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

The August 2024 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interi

The August 2024 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year (CY) 2025. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2025. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program. The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,575 feet and at or above 3,525 feet and the Lake Mead elevation to be at or above 1,025 feet. Consistent with Section 6.C.1 of the Interim Guidelines, and Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the operational tier for Lake Powell in WY 2026 is the Mid-Elevation Release Tier and the water year release volume from Lake Powell is projected to be 7.48 maf. Given the hydrologic variability of the Colorado River System, the actual water year 2026 operations, and being consistent with Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the projected release from Lake Powell in water year 2026 may be less than 7.48 maf. The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin DCP Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program. The 2026 operational tier determinations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead will be documented in the 2026 AOP, which is currently in development. Related scenarios: August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study

August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DR

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA), Reclamation has conducted additional model runs in August to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The Probable Minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90% of the time. The Most Probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50% of the time. The Probable Maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10% of the time. There is approximately an 80% probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Related scenarios: August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study

August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DR

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA), Reclamation has conducted additional model runs in August to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The Probable Minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90% of the time. The Most Probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50% of the time. The Probable Maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10% of the time. There is approximately an 80% probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Related scenarios: August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study  

Building water resilience in the face of cascading wildfire risks

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | September 15th, 2023

California forest die-off linked to multi-year deep soil drying in 2012–2015 drought

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 1st, 2019

Widespread episodes of recent forest die-off have been tied to the occurrence of anomalously warm droughts, although the underlying mechanisms remain inadequately

Widespread episodes of recent forest die-off have been tied to the occurrence of anomalously warm droughts, although the underlying mechanisms remain inadequately understood. California’s 2012–2015 drought, with exceptionally low precipitation and warmth, and widespread conifer death, provides an opportunity to explore the chain of events leading to forest die-off. Here, we present the spatial and temporal patterns of die-off and moisture deficit during California’s drought, based on field and remote sensing observations. We found that die-off was closely tied to multi-year deep-rooting-zone drying, and that this relationship provides a framework with which to diagnose and predict mortality. Marked tree death in an intensively studied Sierra Nevada forest followed a four-year moisture overdraft, with cumulative 2012–2015 evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation by ~1,500 mm, and subsurface moisture exhaustion to 5–15-m depth. Observations across the entire Sierra Nevada further linked tree death to deep drying, with die-off and moisture overdraft covarying across latitude and elevation. Unusually dense vegetation and warm temperatures accelerated southern Sierran evapotranspiration in 2012–2015, intensifying overdraft and compounding die-off by an estimated 55%. Climate change is expected to further amplify evapotranspiration and moisture overdraft during drought, potentially increasing Sierran tree death during drought by ~15–20% °C−1.

California Hydraulic Mining under the Caminetti Act

Scientific American | July 21st, 1900

The gold deposits of California are, for a large part, contained in gravel beds once the channel of rivers which formed the drainage of the west slope of th

The gold deposits of California are, for a large part, contained in gravel beds once the channel of rivers which formed the drainage of the west slope of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. In the course of ages new rivers were formed, leaving the ancient gravel beds elevated often hundreds of feet above the river beds of the present. The depth of the gravel in the old channels is often several hundred feet and the width across them frequently one-half mile, while their courses may be traced for thirty or forty miles in length in detached sections, which are the remnants of once continuous beds. Denudation and the cutting down of the present streams has removed parts of the ancient channels and they often disappear below the surface for several miles underneath coverings of lava which have been spread over them ...  Hydraulic mining became an immense industry. At the time when it had reached its greatest development it was estimated that more than one hundred millions of dollars had been invested in the construction of water supplies, mining plant, tunnels, and flumes, and more than two million dollars have been spent in the equipment of a single mine. Everything was upon an immense scale, and the amounts of gravel removed were in proportion. So large, in fact, that the material washed into the streams caused blockages over spreading agricultural lands in the Sacramento Valley, obstructing and raising the beds of the navigable rivers which enter San Francisco Bay, causing inundations at times of flood, and generally making its influence noticeable 200 miles from the seat of mining. In 1880 it was estimated that in the bed of the Yuba River alone there were stored more than one hundred and forty million cubic yards of accumulations, and the bed of the river had spread over a width of two and one-half miles between the side levees built to confine the spread of the deposits.

California Water Plan 2013: Mountain Counties Regional Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 30th, 2014

As the State works to solve the water crisis in California, the potential for redirected impacts in the Mountain Counties Area is acute. It is critical that the State rec

As the State works to solve the water crisis in California, the potential for redirected impacts in the Mountain Counties Area is acute. It is critical that the State recognize the significance and importance of the Sierra Nevada mountain range to the local communities, the environment, the Delta, and all of California, now and for future generations. Water resource managers are working with elected officials, governmental agencies, businesses, farmers and conservationists on innovative programs for watershed management, water use efficiency, conservation, reuse, and recycling. Water managers and others in the region are actively balancing the water supplies that support both a vibrant economy and a healthy environment. They are also continually improving the management of surface and groundwater sources to sustain this important balance for this region and California. Statewide Significance Water is the number one resource exported from the Sierra Nevada, and the 16-county Mountain Counties Area is the primary source for most of that exported water. The Mountain Counties Area is over 15,700 square miles and represents 9.9 percent of the state. More than 40 percent of California’s developed water supply originates in the Mountain Counties area serving end users throughout the state. -The reservoirs in the region produce hydroelectricity to supply homes and businesses in the western United States. Mountain Counties has more hydroelectric generation facilities than any other region in California. - Agriculture in this region feeds the state and the world and is an economic driver for California’s economy. Recreation and tourism in the Sierra Nevada mountains help communities thrive economically as guests come from all over the world to hike, ski, fish, raft, and boat. Water stored behind designated reservoirs in the ten major watershed areas have dedicated in-stream flow releases designed to meet the many beneficial uses for the environment, agriculture, and urban users and provides storage to reduce the magnitude of flood flows.

California's Rivers and Streams

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | January 26th, 2026