Water Supply Damage, Recovery, and Lifeline Interaction in an Earthquake Sequence

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | September 7th, 2017

Earthquake damage to water supply systems profoundly affects society, potentially costing the economy tens of billions of dollars. Water agencies for 22% of the U.S. popu

Earthquake damage to water supply systems profoundly affects society, potentially costing the economy tens of billions of dollars. Water agencies for 22% of the U.S. population face high seismic risks. Computer models can help operators manage that risk. In recent research, the University of Colorado (CU) developed a stochastic model of water-supply pipeline damage and restoration. It offers some new capabilities: time-varying repair resources, multiple earthquake perils, lifeline interaction, avoiding hydraulic analysis, and no black-box software. CU exercised the model for the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) and the San Jose Water Company, considering a hypothetical large Hayward Fault earthquake. EBMUD staff peer reviewed the methodology and results and find them credible and consistent with past earthquakes. EBMUD is using the results as part of its resilience program. Possible uses include prioritizing additional hardening or redundancy, identifying repair priorities, estimating resource needs, and informing earthquake exercises.

Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change in the United States Series, Part 2

Pacific Institute | October 15th, 2024

In the United States, federal, tribal, state, and local laws and policies exist to govern the provision of water and sanitation services to communities and homes. The law

In the United States, federal, tribal, state, and local laws and policies exist to govern the provision of water and sanitation services to communities and homes. The laws are designed to ensure the protection of public health and the environment; deliver sufficient, safe water for drinking, bathing, cooking, and other household needs; and remove and treat domestic (i.e., household) waste. People without complete plumbing or safe water live within the “water access gap.” As explored in the first report in this series, climate change—from extreme temperatures to droughts, floods, extreme storms, and wildfires—is making it hard to close this gap and keep it from growing. Water and sanitation systems in frontline communities already feel the disproportionate “first and worst” impacts of climate change to these systems and to their access to water and sanitation. Laws and policies should help anticipate and plan  or the incremental and catastrophic impacts of climate change and protect those most harmed by the effects. Unfortunately, in most cases, the climate is changing faster than the law can respond, thereby leaving frontline communities’ water and sanitation systems vulnerable to damage or destruction. This is part two in the three-part Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change in the United States series. Click here for part one and here for part three.

Why People Adopt Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors: Integrated Model of Risk Communication and Results from Hurricanes, Floods, and Wildfires

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 2022

With climate change, weather and climate disaster risks are increasing. At-risk individuals can take climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction behaviors to mitigate

With climate change, weather and climate disaster risks are increasing. At-risk individuals can take climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction behaviors to mitigate and prepare for disaster risks, reduce costs from damage, and save their lives. However, previous fragmented studies have not provided an integrated model to directly compare the factors and identify factors that are most influential in at-risk community members’ behaviors. I present the Integrated Model of Risk Communication by consolidating major theories. This study uses structural equation modeling of quantitative surveys to simultaneously test the impacts of 15 factors on 15 adaptation behaviors for the two most common federally declared disasters (wildfires and hurricanes with floods) in three disaster-prone U.S. states (California, Florida, and Texas) (N = 3,468). Specifically, this study examines 15 behaviors including preparedness, nonstructural mitigation, structural mitigation, insurance purchase, and adaptation policy support. Social norms perceptions, self-efficacy, response efficacy, and resource constraints strongly affect behaviors. Response efficacy strongly affects policy support. Risk perception, knowledge, and climate change perception—commonly argued to be key drivers—are insignificant or weak. The models explain 55%–86% of the variance in adaptation behaviors. Results suggest that the focus of adaptation efforts may need to shift from risk perception and climate change perception to efficacy and social norms.

Why the St. Francis Dam Collapsed

Scientific American | June 1st, 1928

St. Francis dam was constructed on the San Francisquito fault, a geological feature known for a number of years and made the subject of publication illustrated by map

St. Francis dam was constructed on the San Francisquito fault, a geological feature known for a number of years and made the subject of publication illustrated by maps, chief among these being that published several years ago by the Seismological Society of America, which shows the major faults of  California. This statement, made March 22nd by Harry R. Johnson, consulting geologist of Los Angeles, speaking in San Francisco before the delegates to the convention of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, created a profound impression, accompanied as it was by an analysis of the condition of the fault at that particular place. Mr. Johnson prefaced his report by saying that the advisability of making it had been discussed with other delegates, and that it had been decided that such a public report was advisable in view of the fact that "the public mind had been deluged by the wildest assortment of theories as to the cause of the catastrophe."

Wildfires, Floods, and Climate Variability

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) | May 10th, 2018

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how clim

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network. The study identifies opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. The second chapter analyzes National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data to quantify the economic impacts of flooding across the western United States from 1978 to 2007. The study compares National Flood Insurance Program data to National Weather Service measures of total damages, and presents a spatial and temporal analysis of daily claims and loss data over this period. The NFIP data reveals that a small number winter-season extreme hydrologic events, covering wide spatial areas, are responsible for a large proportion of total losses. In coastal southern California and across the southwest, El Niño conditions have had a strong effect in producing more frequent and higher magnitudes of insured losses while La Niña conditions significantly reduce both the frequency and magnitude losses. In the Pacific Northwest, the opposite pattern appears, though the effect is somewhat weaker, and less spatially coherent. The third chapter quantifies the economic impacts of flooding due to atmospheric river (AR) events in the western United States from 1978 to 2007, using NFIP claims and loss data. The study confirms that AR-related flood events cause significant economic damages and form the primary source of insurance claims and insured flood losses in the western coastal states. It provides spatial and temporal characterizations of damages as a function of integrated vapor transport (IVT) and antecedent hydrologic conditions. As the magnitude and frequency of wildfire and flood events change in response to anthropogenic climate change, and as economic and demographic contributions to vulnerability increase over time, public policy must adapt to respond. The results in these papers may be used to inform policies to mitigate losses and respond to future disaster scenarios, and may be of interest to policy makers and applied climate researchers alike.

Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | August 12th, 2022

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, result- ing in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.

Workshop report—Earthquakes and High Water as Levee Hazards in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | September 30th, 2016

Yuba-Feather FIRO Final Viability Assessment

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 14th, 2025

This Yuba-Feather Final Viability Assessment (FVA) evaluates whether improved precipitation and runoff forecasts can reduce flood risk downstream of New Bullards Bar (NBB

This Yuba-Feather Final Viability Assessment (FVA) evaluates whether improved precipitation and runoff forecasts can reduce flood risk downstream of New Bullards Bar (NBB), owned and operated by Yuba Water Agency (Yuba Water), and Lake Oroville (ORO), owned and operated by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). These reservoirs are in the Yuba-Feather watersheds in the Sierra Nevada and eastern Sacramento Valley of Northern California (Figure ES-1 and ES-2). Each reservoirs’ flood risk reduction operations are regulated by United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) through Water Control Manuals (WCMs).  Reducing flood risk by making reservoir releases ahead of storms creates additional temporary flood storage space for anticipated inflows but requires confidence and skill in forecasted conditions.