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System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Appendix A: Forecast-Based Operations Analysis

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 29th, 2014

Summary

The System Reoperation Study (“Reoperation Study”) is investigating changes in operations and other strategies that may result in improved system performance in terms

The System Reoperation Study (“Reoperation Study”) is investigating changes in operations and other strategies that may result in improved system performance in terms of additional water supply, flood hazard reduction, and ecosystem protection and restoration. It is recognized that existing reservoir operations are typically based on meeting all or some of these three objectives. As such, the Reoperation Study focuses on modifications to existing operations and expansion of these benefits. The Reoperation Study team has developed several reoperation components to evaluate at select river/reservoir systems to quantify benefits and improve understanding of the trade-offs involved. MBK Engineers is providing technical, strategic, and coordination support for the Reoperation Study. An analysis of Forecast-Based Operation (F-BO) is part of that support. The following report summarizes this effort. F-BO can be applied to any reservoir with a traditional water supply and flood control space allocation paradigm. The incorporation of weather forecasts allows for greater flexibility in the management of the reservoir’s space (flood control versus conservation) and inherently increases the opportunities for gaining additional water supply and flood control benefits through its implementation. System reoperation is informed by historical flood patterns and utilizes records of inflow, outflow, and storage in the reservoirs to develop modified rules for flood releases. Changes to historical operations of the reservoirs is expected to reveal potential for additional water supply storage. With improvements to many of the reservoir facilities, such as increased release capacity, operations are no longer required to be as conservative as they once were. By reducing outflow and allowing an increase in water storage, significant improvements in water supply can be achieved. However, care must be taken so that sufficient water can still be evacuated in the event of a significant forecasted flood. RELATED DOCUMENTS: System Reoperation Study, Phase 1: Plan of Study System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Strategy Formulation and Refinement System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Appendix A: Forecast?Based Operations Analysis System Reoperation Study, Phase 2: Appendix B: Tradeoff Analysis System Reoperation Study, Phase 3 Report: Assessment of Reoperation Strategies System Reoperation, Phase 3: Appendix C: State Water Project and Central Valley Project Integrated Operations Analysis System Reoperation, Phase 3 Appendix D: Ecosystem Evaluation

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The 2010/2011 snow season in California’s Sierra Nevada: Role of atmospheric rivers and modes of large-scale variability

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 17th, 2013

Summary

The anomalously snowy winter season of 2010/2011 in the Sierra Nevada is analyzed interms of snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies and the role of atmospheric rivers (AR

The anomalously snowy winter season of 2010/2011 in the Sierra Nevada is analyzed interms of snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies and the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs)—narrow channels of enhanced meridional water vapor transport between the tropics and extratropics. Mean April 1 SWE was 0.44 m (56%) above normal averaged over 100 snow sensors. AR occurrence was anomalously high during the period, with 20 AR dates during the season and 14 in the month of December 2010, compared to the mean occurrence of nine dates per season. Fifteen out of the 20 AR dates were associated with the negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Analysis of all winter ARs in California during water years 1998–2011 indicates more ARs occur during the negative phase of AO and PNA, with the increase between positive and negative phases being90% for AO, and50% for PNA. The circulation pattern associated with concurrent negative phases of AO and PNA, characterized by cyclonic anomalies centered northwest of California, provides a favorable dynamical condition for ARs. The analysis suggests that the massive Sierra Nevada snowpack during the 2010/2011 winter season is primarily related to anomalously high frequency of ARs favored by the joint phasing of AO and PNA, and that a secondary contribution is from increased snow accumulation during these ARs favored by colder air temperatures associated with AO, PNA, and La Nina.

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The Evaporative Demand Drought Index. Part I: Linking Drought Evolution to Variations in Evaporative Demand

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | March 1st, 2016

Summary

Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analys

Many operational drought indices focus primarily on precipitation and temperature when depicting hydroclimatic anomalies, and this perspective can be augmented by analyses and products that reflect the evaporative dynamics of drought. The linkage between atmospheric evaporative demand E0 and actual evapotranspiration (ET) is leveraged in a new drought index based solely on E0—the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). EDDI measures the signal of drought through the response of E0 to surface drying anomalies that result from two distinct land surface–atmosphere interactions: 1) a complementary relationship between E0 and ET that develops under moisture limitations at the land surface, leading to ET declining and increasing E0, as in sustained droughts, and 2) parallel ET and E0 increases arising from increased energy availability that lead to surface moisture limitations, as in flash droughts. To calculate EDDI from E0, a longterm, daily reanalysis of reference ET estimated from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) standardized reference ET equation using radiation and meteorological variables from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) is used. EDDI is obtained by deriving empirical probabilities of aggregated E0 depths relative to their climatologic means across a user-specific time period and normalizing these probabilities. Positive EDDI values then indicate drier-than-normal conditions and the potential for drought. EDDI is a physically based, multiscalar drought index that that can serve as an indicator of both flash and sustained droughts, in some hydroclimates offering early warning relative to current operational drought indices. The performance of EDDI is assessed against other commonly used drought metrics across CONUS in Part II.

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The Future Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin

Utah State University | August 31st, 2020

Summary

Long-range planning of the water supply provided by the Colorado River requires realistic assessments of the impact of a continuation of the current drought that began in

Long-range planning of the water supply provided by the Colorado River requires realistic assessments of the impact of a continuation of the current drought that began in 2000, the impact of potentially extreme future droughts, and the long-term and progressive decline in watershed runoff that is caused by a warming climate. Water-supply managers want to know the maximum plausible stresses to water users so that plans for conservation, reservoir operations, and/or construction of new infrastructure can be properly developed. River managers want to know the implications of various water-supply plans on the flow-regime and water-quality characteristics of the Colorado River and its headwater branches in order to develop natural resource management plans that maintain desired attributes of river ecosystems. Although it is relatively easy to qualitatively describe scenarios of drought or water abundance, it is much harder to quantitatively estimate likely future conditions. In the white paper, we developed methods to make such quantitative estimates, thereby providing an approximate answer to the question, “How dry might future conditions in the Colorado River watershed become?” It is difficult to assign a probability to this assessment, and our analysis is guided by the principle that what has happened in the past might happen again in the future.

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The growing importance of oceanic moisture sources for continental precipitation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 24th, 2020

Summary

The precipitation that falls on the continents defines the extent and nature of terrestrial ecosystems and human activity in them, all of which are adapted to a

The precipitation that falls on the continents defines the extent and nature of terrestrial ecosystems and human activity in them, all of which are adapted to and maintained by present-day precipitation. In essence, precipitation is supplied by moisture that either comes directly from the ocean, or is subsequently recycled from the continents themselves. Both the processes that control evaporation and the main mechanisms of moisture transport clearly differ between the ocean and the continent, thus within the context of a changing climate, it may be expected that the relationship between precipitation of oceanic and terrestrial origin varies globally and regionally, as will the influence of these two basic components of total precipitation on global and regional precipitation trends, especially in tropical regions. We describe an approach based on a Lagrangian technique for estimating the precipitation in a target region given the proportions of moisture transported from the two sources (ocean and continent) to reveal that the percentage of precipitation of oceanic origin has increased globally in the current climate (1980–2016). The greatest observed rate of increase is in the tropical regions; furthermore, the trends of precipitation in these regions are controlled by trends in precipitation for which the source of moisture is the ocean.

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The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2014

Summary

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

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The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2014

Summary

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We

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The Key Role of Heavy Precipitation Events in Climate Model Disagreements of Future Annual Precipitation Changes in California

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 6th, 2013

Summary

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over Cal- ifornia, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt

Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over Cal- ifornia, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This dis- agreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (.60 mm day21) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that pre- cipitation frequency will decrease by the 2060s, with a mean reduction of 6–14 days yr21. This reduces Cal- ifornia’s mean annual precipitation by about 5.7%. Partly offsetting this, 16 of the 25 projections agree that daily precipitation intensity will increase, which accounts for a model average 5.3% increase in annual pre- cipitation. Between these conflicting tendencies, 12 projections show drier annual conditions by the 2060s and 13 show wetter. These results are obtained from 16 global general circulation models downscaled with dif- ferent combinations of dynamical methods [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Regional Spectral Model (RSM), and version 3 of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3)] and statistical methods [bias cor- rection with spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and bias correction with constructed analogs (BCCA)], although not all downscaling methods were applied to each global model. Model disagreements in the projected change in occurrence of the heaviest precipitation days (.60 mm day21) account for the majority of disagreement in the projected change in annual precipitation, and occur preferentially over the Sierra Nevada and Northern California. When such events are excluded, nearly twice as many projections show drier future conditions.

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The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California’s watersheds

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | February 12th, 2015

Summary

Process-based models that link climate and hydrology permit improved assessments of climate change impacts among watersheds. We used the Basin Characterization Model (BCM

Process-based models that link climate and hydrology permit improved assessments of climate change impacts among watersheds. We used the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model to (1) ask what is the magnitude of historical and projected future change in the hydrology of California’s watersheds; (2) test the spatial congruence of watersheds with the most historical and future hydrologic change; and (3) identify watersheds with high levels of hydrologic change under drier and wetter future climates. We assessed change for 5135 watersheds over a 60-year historical period and compared it to 90-year future projections. Watershed change was analyzed for climatic water deficit, April 1st snowpack, recharge, and runoff. Watersheds were ranked by change for the historical and twofuture scenarios. We developed a normalized index of hydrologic change that combined the four variables, and identified which watersheds show the most spatial congruence of large historical change and continued change under the two futures. Of the top 20%of all watersheds (1028), 591 in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and Northwestern eco-regions have high spatial congruence across all time periods. Among watersheds where change accelerates in the future, but not historically, a majority are congruent between both climate models, predominantly in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Ranges and the Northwestern eco-regions. This congruence of impacts in watersheds under drier or wetter scenarios is driven by snowpack, but in areas with low snowpack, hydrologic change varied spatially depending on projected precipitation and temperature, with 151 watersheds in Northwestern California showing high levels of drying under the drier scenario, while 103 watersheds in Central western and Southwestern California show increasing hydrologic activity under the wetter scenario. In some regions, the loss of snowpack allows the cycle of runoff and recharge to function without delay represented by springtime snow melt, causing these watersheds to become more immediately hydrologically responsive to changing climate. The study also found watersheds with low rainfall that have already passed through their highest response to changing climate, and show less future change. The methods used here can also be used to identify watersheds resilient to changing climate.

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The Relationship between California Rainfall and ENSO Events

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 1989

Summary

This paper examines the annual rainfall over California during 11 ENSO events within the period 1950 to 1982. During six of these, unusually wet conditions prevailed thro

This paper examines the annual rainfall over California during 11 ENSO events within the period 1950 to 1982. During six of these, unusually wet conditions prevailed throughout California; conditions were near normal during five events; and in one extreme drought occurred statewide. A comparison with the ENSO classification scheme of Fu et al, based on SST patterns in the Pacific, shows an excellent correspondence. Type 1 years, with large positive temperature anomalies east of the date line and lasting well into winter, are invariably events that enhance California rainfall. Normal years coincide with Type 2 ENSO events (moderate warming over a broad sector); the dry year is the sole Type 3 year, with weak anomalies confined to the eastern Pacific. This study also shows that the response to ENSO is regionally specific. Although throughout the state most years with extremely wet conditions are ENSO years, the tendency for an ENSO event to increase rainfall is greatest in Southern California, where 9 of 11 events produced above-normal rainfall and 8 of the 10 wettest years was an ENSO year. The pattern is more complex in central California; there ENSO years are almost invariably ones with highly abnormal rainfall, but they may be either wet or dry. The areas least influenced by ENSO are the Sierra Nevada and Northern California. The reasons for the geographical pattern of response become apparent when the seasonality and causes of rainfall in the various regions are evaluated.

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