Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2019

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant eco

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three- fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 12th, 2015

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fractional increases between 50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.

Earthquakes and High Water as Levee Hazards in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | September 30th, 2016

Ecologically Functional Floodplains: Connectivity, Flow Regime, and Scale

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | March 31st, 2010

This paper proposes a conceptual model that captures key attributes of ecologically functional floodplains, encompassing three basic elements: (1) hydrologic connectivity

This paper proposes a conceptual model that captures key attributes of ecologically functional floodplains, encompassing three basic elements: (1) hydrologic connectivity between the river and the floodplain, (2) a variable hydrograph that reflects seasonal precipitation patterns and retains a range of both high and low flow events, and (3) sufficient spatial scale to encompass dynamic processes and for floodplain benefits to accrue to a meaningful level. Although floodplains support high levels of biodiversity and some of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, they are also among the most converted and threatened ecosystems and therefore have recently become the focus of conservation and restoration programs across the United States and globally. These efforts seek to conserve or restore complex, highly variable ecosystems and often must simultaneously address both land and water management. Thus, such efforts must overcome considerable scientific, technical, and socioeconomic challenges. In addition to proposing a scientific conceptual model, this paper also includes three case studies that illustrate methods for addressing these technical and socioeconomic challenges within projects that seek to promote ecologically functional floodplains through river‐floodplain reconnection and/or restoration of key components of hydrological variability.

Economic consequence analysis of the ARkStorm scenario

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | November 1st, 2016

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from l

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic consequence analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajectory. The methodology serves as a template for assessing the macroeconomic consequences of disasters and the influence of resilience in reducing BI losses.

Effects of vegetation on methylmercury concentrations and loads in a mercury contaminated floodplain

Science of The Total Environment (Elsevier) | August 3rd, 2023

The Yolo Bypass (YB) is a large flood conveyance system designed to protect the city of Sacramento, California, USA from flooding when the Sacramento River approaches flo

The Yolo Bypass (YB) is a large flood conveyance system designed to protect the city of Sacramento, California, USA from flooding when the Sacramento River approaches flood stage. The Sacramento River watershed and YB are a source of methylmercury (MeHg) to downstream habitat as a result of historic mercury (Hg) and gold mining practices. In the dry season, the YB is extensively farmed and grazed. However, depending on the water year, the floodplain may remain inundated for months. Our experiments focused on the role of pasture land and decomposing vegetation as a source of MeHg during extensive periods of floodplain flooding. Decomposing vegetation, rather than sediment, was identified as the principal source of filter passing MeHg (fMeHg) within the floodplain. The decomposing vegetation provided a substrate for microbial methylation of inorganic Hg contained within the plants. In replicated flooded mesocosm experiments, MeHg concentrations increased from 2.78 to 31.0 ng g− 1 dw and 3.41 to 56.8 ng g− 1 dw in decomposing vegetation. In field collections, the concentrations of MeHg in vegetation increased from preflood levels of 2.78 to 45.4 ng g− 1dw after 17 weeks of flooding. The importance of vegetation was shown in laboratory experiments where there was a positive correlation between the amount of fMeHg in water and the amount of vegetation added. These results also provide Hg concentration data for an important functional type of vegetation, grasses, and fill a data gap that contributed to uncertainties with regards to the role of vegetation in Hg cycling.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 7th, 2017

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty i

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Elevated Grand Canyon groundwater recharge during the warm Early Holocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 2nd, 2023

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods

Summer rainfall is an important contributor to water budgets in western North American deserts, where intense rainfall sustains ecosystems while also causing flash floods and damaging erosion. A better understanding of Grand Canyon palaeoclimate and the long-term history of the summer monsoon from summer-sensitive palaeoclimate records will improve our ability to project future hydroclimatic changes under warmer conditions. Here we show multi-proxy evidence for an intensification of the Early Holocene (11,700–8,200 years ago) hydrological cycle linked to a stronger and expanded summer North American Monsoon from calcite oxygen and uranium isotopes in a uranium-series precisely dated stalagmite from a Grand Canyon cave. Our results suggest that subsurface infiltration was greater in the Early Holocene than today at Grand Canyon. A data–model comparison with an isotope-enabled climate model suggests that enhanced infiltration was due to an Early Holocene monsoon intensification associated with rising atmospheric temperature. Projections of a future increase in precipitation intensity or more frequent and expanded North American monsoon rain events may paradoxically result in increased subsurface infiltration at Grand Canyon and other high-altitude plateaus, even within the context of western North American aridification in a hotter climate.

Elevation and Opportunity in the Delta: Restoring the Right Thing in the Right Place

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | May 31st, 2022

A future Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (“Delta” herein) that supports healthy ecosystems and native species, while also meeting flood risk reduction,

A future Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (“Delta” herein) that supports healthy ecosystems and native species, while also meeting flood risk reduction, water supply, water quality, carbon sequestration, economic, and cultural objectives, requires that appropriate restoration and management actions be taken in the right place at the right time. Geographic setting affects the potential opportunities available—not all actions are suitable everywhere. Physical factors determining what types of activities are appropriate now and in the future include a site’s elevation, degree of tidal and fluvial influence, salinity, soil type, and local effects of climate change, which all vary spatially across the Delta. While there has been considerable progress over the last several decades, continued acceleration of the pace and scale of enhancement actions appropriate to landscape position is needed. Understanding the physical template is necessary for developing strategies that move beyond opportunistic restoration, support resilience over time, and have the potential to connect and magnify benefits across the larger landscape.

Emergency Response To Flood Threats in California

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 8th, 2011

An explanatory memo on the Flood Operations Branch, Department of Water Resources, Division of Flood Management During the flood season, a number of public agencies co

An explanatory memo on the Flood Operations Branch, Department of Water Resources, Division of Flood Management During the flood season, a number of public agencies combine their efforts to provide high water warnings and minimize flood damage in California. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) is responsible for coordinating local, State and federal flood operations. The State-Federal Flood Operations Center, located on El Camino Avenue in Sacramento, is the focal point of this effort. State, federal and local flood operations on the North Coast streams are coordinated through the DWR Eureka Flood Center in Humboldt County.