Increasing importance of 2021 temperature as a driver of streamflow drought spatial extent

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | February 9th, 2021

Widespread streamflow droughts can pose substantially greater societal challenges than spatially less extensive events because of the complex realities of trans-regional

Widespread streamflow droughts can pose substantially greater societal challenges than spatially less extensive events because of the complex realities of trans-regional water management. In a warming climate, drought spatial extent may change along with changes in underlying hydro-meteorological contributors. Here, we assess changes in streamflow drought spatial extent over the period 1981–2018 across the conterminous United States, and how the importance of potential hydro-meteorological contributors has changed over time. We first derive a monthly time series of drought spatial extent and look at trends in streamflow drought spatial extent. We then determine the spatial percentage 'overlap' of precipitation droughts, temperature anomalies, snow-water-equivalent deficits, and soil moisture deficits with the area under streamflow drought to look at the changing influence of these contributors on spatial extent. Our results show that (1) the spatial extent of droughts has increased, mainly because of increases in the extent of small droughts; (2) streamflow drought extents overall substantially overlap with soil moisture deficits and the relationship of drought to precipitation and temperature anomalies varies seasonally; and (3) the importance of temperature as a contributor to drought extent has increased over time. We therefore conclude that continued global warming may further increase drought extents, requiring adaptation of regional drought management strategies.

Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 23rd, 2018

Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-yea

Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 21st, 2015

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

United States Congress | August 6th, 2022

Click "get document" for the entire bill. Scroll below to see its drought relief amendment.

Click "get document" for the entire bill. Scroll below to see its drought relief amendment.

Integrated approaches to understanding and reducing drought impact on food security across scales

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability (Elsevier) | October 1st, 2019

Understanding the cross-scale linkages between drought and food security is vital to developing tools to reduce drought impacts and support decision making. This study re

Understanding the cross-scale linkages between drought and food security is vital to developing tools to reduce drought impacts and support decision making. This study reviews how drought hazards transfer to food insecurity through changes in physical processes and socio-environmental systems across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. We propose a multi-scale, integrated framework leveraging modeling advances (e.g. drought and crop monitoring, water-food-energy nexus, decision making) and increased data availability (e.g. satellite remote sensing, food trade) through the lens of the coupled human–natural system to support multidisciplinary approaches and avoid potential policy spillover effects. We discuss current scale-dependent challenges in tackling drought-induced food security whilst minimizing water use conflicts and environmental impacts. 

Intensification of hydrological drought in California by human water management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 25th, 2017

Is climate change implicated in the 2013-2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 21st, 2015

California has experienced severe drought in 2012–2014 (which appears to be continuing into 2015), with especially low winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in wi

California has experienced severe drought in 2012–2014 (which appears to be continuing into 2015), with especially low winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in winter 2013–2014. However, the extent to which climate change is implicated in the drought, if at all, is not clear. By applying modeling and statistical approaches, we construct a historical record of California snowpack, runoff, and other hydrological variables of almost 100 years in length and use the reconstructed records to analyze climate trends in the Sierra Nevada and their impact on extreme drought events in the historic record. We confirm a general warming trend and associated decreasing trends in spring snowpack and runoff. We find that the warming may have slightly exacerbated some extreme events (including the 2013–2014 drought and the 1976–1977 drought of record), but the effect is modest; instead, these drought events are mainly the result of variability in precipitation.

Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 17th, 2020

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogen

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.

Learning from Crises to Build Urban Water Security

Rand Corporation (Rand) | January 15th, 2025

In this report, the authors examine the experiences of five cities — Cape Town, South Africa; Melbourne, Australia; São Paulo, Brazil; and Las Vegas, Nevada, and New O

In this report, the authors examine the experiences of five cities — Cape Town, South Africa; Melbourne, Australia; São Paulo, Brazil; and Las Vegas, Nevada, and New Orleans, Louisiana, in the United States — facing severe or catastrophic water supply risks to identify steps that could be taken ahead of time to mitigate those risks and build urban water security.

Left Out in Drought: California Fish Impacts of the California Drought on Freshwater Ecosystems

Pacific Institute | September 7th, 2022

California is deep into the third year of another major drought. Rural and urban areas again face water use restrictions and financial losses. Less water and hotter tempe

California is deep into the third year of another major drought. Rural and urban areas again face water use restrictions and financial losses. Less water and hotter temperatures also stress ecosystems, increasing the prevalence of wildfires, air pollution, dry streambeds, and loss of wildlife. Impacts to rural and urban areas frequently mask the disproportionate ecological impacts of the drought and the related policy and management responses that have exacerbated those impacts. The lack of acknowledgement and de- prioritization of ecosystem water needs during drought has led to insufficient actions taken to protect the natural systems on which we all depend.