A Marsh Transformed: Historical Ecology and Landscape Change in Suisun Marsh

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | December 30th, 2024

A Marsh Transformed: Historical Ecology and Landscape Change in Suisun Marsh is a report for managers to inform landscape-scale, collaborative adaptation planning in the

A Marsh Transformed: Historical Ecology and Landscape Change in Suisun Marsh is a report for managers to inform landscape-scale, collaborative adaptation planning in the Suisun Marsh. Using historical documents such as archival maps, photographs, and narrative accounts, SFEI pieced together a complete picture of landscape conditions in Suisun Marsh in the early 1800s, before European-American colonizers began to transform the land. A Marsh Transformed provides the historical and present-day context that can form the foundation of science-based conservation goals for Suisun. SFEI has undertaken similar efforts in San Francisco Bay and the Delta that led to collaborative regional goals for those ecosystems. SFEI’s aim is for the next stage of work in Suisun to use the content of A Marsh Transformed to run a collaborative process with resource managers, landowners, marsh visitors, and Tribes to crystallize goals for Suisun.

A Measure of Snow: A Report Based on Case Studies of The Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) | November 1st, 2008

Snow depth and snow water content data have been collected and disseminated throughout the Western United States for over 100 years. Early snow survey and water s

Snow depth and snow water content data have been collected and disseminated throughout the Western United States for over 100 years. Early snow survey and water supply data were gathered through the efforts of university scientists, beginning with the work of Dr. James E. Church. In 1935, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS), now the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), established a formal cooperative Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting (SS-WSF) Program. The Agency was charged with responsibility for “conducting snow survey and water supply forecasts and the forecasting of irrigation water supplies.” The new Program would also develop consistent methods for measuring snow and reliable models for accurate water supply forecasting. Administered by NRCS, the SS-WSF Program has grown into a network of more than 1,200 manually-measured snow courses and over 750 automated Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) weather stations in 13 Western States, including Alaska. (See map on page 4.) The SS-WSF Program provides manual snow course data collected by NRCS conservation professionals, automated SNOTEL data, and modeled water supply/streamflow volume data as well as issues streamflow forecasts for over 740 locations in the West. The data and the related reports and forecasts, are made available—in near real time for the automated SNOTEL sites—to private industry; to Federal, State, and local government entities; and to private citizens through an extensive Internet delivery system and other distribution channels. With 50-80 percent of the water supply in the West arriving in the form of snow, data on the snowpack provides critical information to decision-makers and water managers throughout the West. The basic data become even more valuable when used in concert with partner organizations to provide water supply forecasting tailored to meet end-user needs. According to researchers from multiple U.S. and international agencies, research centers, and academia, changes in the world’s climate have resulted in a loss of predictability in weather, precipitation, and water transport and accumulation patterns. It is anticipated that the value the SS-WSF Program provides to society will increase over time as climate variability increases. Recently a study was done to see who uses SS-WSF data, how the data are used, and the value of the data. Users of the data were interviewed and specific events and activities were analyzed. This publication is based on that study.

A Measure of Snow: Case Studies of the Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting Program

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) | September 1st, 2010

Snow depth and snow water content data have been collected and disseminated throughout the W estern United States for over 100 years. Early Snow Survey and Wate

Snow depth and snow water content data have been collected and disseminated throughout the W estern United States for over 100 years. Early Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting data were gathered through the efforts of university scientists. In 1935, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) was given $36,000 to establish a formal cooperative Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting (SSWSF) Program. The agency was charged with the responsibility for “conducting Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecast s and forecasting of irrigation water supplies.” The new program would also develop consistent methods for measuring snow and reliable models for water supply forecasting. Using a case study approach, this report assesses the various uses of data gathered and published by the SSWSF Program and estimates the value of those data in terms of both the market and non-market values of the information. Additionally, it evaluate s the relative merits of maintaining the program as a publicly funded program as opposed to privatizing the program. This study finds that the SSWSF Program is generating both market and non-market benefits to the U.S. economy and to U.S. society as a whole that are worth significantly more than the cost of the program. Should climate variability increase — as is expected by many of those interviewed in the course of completing this study, and as current climate research strongly suggests — the value of the information provided by the SSWSF Program will increase accordingly.

A Menu of Fire Response Water Quality Monitoring Options and Recommendations for Water Year 2019 and Beyond

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 2nd, 2018

In October 2017, the Tubbs Fire and the Nuns Fire burned 93,400 acres of the Mark West Creek and Santa Rosa Creek watersheds, killing 22 people, and incinerating approxim

In October 2017, the Tubbs Fire and the Nuns Fire burned 93,400 acres of the Mark West Creek and Santa Rosa Creek watersheds, killing 22 people, and incinerating approximately 7,000 structures. After the fires, many agencies worked together to deploy water and sediment related best management practices (BMPs) in the burn area (e.g., waddles, emergency hydroseeding, and filter systems on storm drains) and worked on removing contaminated debris and soil from burned properties. The City of Santa Rosa conducted water quality sampling to verify that the BMPs were working. Water quality samples were collected at selected sites before and after flow interacted with the BMP; the City was generally pleased with the results. Subsequently, the North Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board (Water Board) developed a preliminary monitoring design for WY 2018 to measure potential water quality impacts of the fires in relation to beneficial uses. Selected streams were sampled for parameters that could be compared to regulatory water quality criteria. The attachment contains a summary of the results for WY 2018. Based on this initial dataset, the apparent early success of the BMP program, and the soil clean-ups that have occurred, the focus going forward should be on monitoring larger-scale and longer-term impacts. This document outlines monitoring options for consideration for WY 2019 and beyond for four categories: Water Chemistry, Hydromodification, Geomorphic Response, and Ecology. 

A multi-city COVID-19 forecasting model utilizing wastewater-based epidemiology

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | January 15th, 2025

A multi-isotope (B, Sr, O, H, and C) and age dating (3H–3He and14C) study of groundwater from Salinas Valley, California: Hydrochemistry, dynamics, and contamination processes

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2002

The chemical and isotope (11B/10B, 87Sr/86Sr, 18O/16O, 2H/H, 13C/12C, 14C, and 3He/3H) compositions of groundwater from the upper aquifer system of the Salinas Valley in

The chemical and isotope (11B/10B, 87Sr/86Sr, 18O/16O, 2H/H, 13C/12C, 14C, and 3He/3H) compositions of groundwater from the upper aquifer system of the Salinas Valley in coastal central California were investigated in order to delineate the origin and processes of groundwater contamination in this complex system. The Salinas Valley has a relatively deep, confined ‘‘400- foot’’ aquifer, overlain by a ‘‘180-foot’’ aquifer and a shallower perched aquifer, all made up of alluvial sand, gravel and clay deposits. Groundwater from the aquifers have different 14C ages: fossil (14C = 21.3 percent modern carbon (pmc) for the 400-foot aquifer and modern (14C = 72.2–98.2 pmc) for the 180-foot aquifer. Fresh groundwater in all aquifers is recharged naturally and artificially through the Salinas River. The two modes of recharge can be distinguished chemically.We identified several different saline components with distinguishable chemical and isotopic fingerprints. Saltwater intrusion in the northern basin has C1 concentrations up to 1700 mg/L, a Na/Cl ratio less than seawater, a marine Br/Cl ratio, a Ca/Cl ratio greater than seawater, d11B between +17 and +38% and 87Sr/86Sr between 0.7088 and 0.7096. Excess dissolved Ca, relative to the expected concentration for simple dilution of seawater, correlates with 87Sr/86Sr ratios, suggesting base exchange reaction with clay materials. (2) Agriculture return flow is high inNO3 and SO4, with a 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7082,d11B = 19% and d13C between 23 and 17%. The 3H–3He ages (5–17 years) and 14C data suggest vertical infiltration rates of irrigation water of 3–10 m/yr. (3) Nonmarine saline water in the southern part of the valley has high total dissolved solids up to 3800 mg/L, high SO4, Na/Cl ratio >1, d11B between +24 and +30%, and 87Sr/86Sr = 0.70852. This groundwater may have acquired its geochemical signature from leaching of sedimentary rocks associated with the Coast Range marine deposits of Mesozoic to early Cenozoic age. The combination of different geochemical and isotopic fingerprints enables us to delineate the impact of salt sources in different areas of the valley and to reconstruct the origin of the SO4-enriched NO3-depleted saline plume that is located west of the city of Salinas. We suggest that the latter is derived from a mixture of different natural saline waters rather than from anthropogenic contamination.

A multi-predator trophic database for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 27th, 2023

A multi-scale approach for identification of potential pesticide use sites impacting vernal pool critical habitat in California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | October 17th, 2022

Spatially explicit ecological risk assessment (ERA) requires estimating the overlap between chemical and receptor distribution to evaluate the potential impacts of exposu

Spatially explicit ecological risk assessment (ERA) requires estimating the overlap between chemical and receptor distribution to evaluate the potential impacts of exposure on nontarget organisms. Pesticide use estimation at field level is prone to error due to inconsistencies between ground-reporting and geospatial data coverage; attempts to rectify these inconsistencies have been limited in approach and rarely scaled to multiple crop types. We built upon a previously developed Bayesian approach to combine multiple crop types for a probabilistic determination of field-crop assignments and to examine co-occurrence of critical vernal pool habitats and bifenthrin application within a 5-county area in California (Madera, Merced, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties). We incorporated a multi-scale repeated sampling approach with an area constraint to improve the delineation of field boundaries and better capture variability in crop assignments and rotation schemes. After comparing the accuracy of the spatial probabilistic approach to USDA Census of Agriculture crop acreage data, we found our approach allows more specificity in the combination of crop types represented by the potential application area and improves acreage estimates when compared to traditional deterministic approaches. In addition, our multi-scale sampling scheme improved estimates of bifenthrin acreage variability for co-occurrence analysis and allowed for estimates of crop rotations that were previously uncaptured. Our approach could be leveraged for more realistic, spatially resolved exposure and effects models both in and outside of California.

A Multidataset Assessment of Climatic Drivers and Uncertainties of Recent Trends in Evaporative Demand across the Continental United States

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | April 1st, 2022

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in drivin

Increased atmospheric evaporative demand has important implications for humans and ecosystems in water-scarce lands. While temperature plays a significant role in driving evaporative demand and its trend, other climate variables are also influential and their contributions to recent trends in evaporative demand are unknown. We address this gap with an assessment of recent (1980–2020) trends in annual reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its drivers across the continental United States based on five gridded datasets. In doing so, we characterize the structural uncertainty of ETo trends and decompose the relative influences of temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity. Results highlight large and robust changes in ETo across much of the western United States, centered on the Rio Grande region where ETo increased 135–235 mm during 1980–2020. The largest uncertainties in ETo trends are in the central and eastern United States and surrounding the Upper Colorado River. Trend decomposition highlights the strong and widespread influence of temperature, which contributes to 57% of observed ETo trends, on average. ETo increases are mitigated by increases in specific humidity in non-water-limited regions, while small decreases in specific humidity and increases in wind speed and solar radiation magnify ETo increases across the West. Our results show increases in ETo across the West that are already emerging outside the range of variability observed 20–40 years ago. Our results suggest that twenty-first-century land and water managers need to plan for an already increasing influence of evaporative demand on water availability and wildfire risks. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Increased atmospheric thirst due to climate warming has the potential to decrease water availability and increase wildfire risks in water-scarce regions. Here, we identified how much atmospheric thirst has changed across the continental United States over the past 40 years, what climate variables are driving the change, and how consistent these changes are among five data sources. We found that atmospheric thirst is consistently emerging outside the range experienced in the late twentieth century in some western regions with 57% of the change driven by temperature. Importantly, we demonstrate that increased atmospheric thirst has already become a persistent forcing of western landscapes and water supplies toward drought and will be an essential consideration for land and water management planning going forward.

A multiscale model for El Niño complexity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 11th, 2022

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscal

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits diverse characteristics in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution. Here we develop a three-region multiscale stochastic model to show that the observed ENSO complexity can be explained by combining intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal processes. The model starts with a deterministic three-region system for the interannual variabilities. Then two stochastic processes of the intraseasonal and decadal variation are incorporated. The model can reproduce not only the general properties of the observed ENSO events, but also the complexity in patterns (e.g., Central Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific events), intensity (e.g., 10–20 year reoccurrence of extreme El Niños), and temporal evolution (e.g., more multi-year La Niñas than multi-year El Niños). While conventional conceptual models were typically used to understand the dynamics behind the common properties of ENSO, this model offers a powerful tool to understand and predict ENSO complexity that challenges our understanding of the twenty-first century ENSO.