Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study for the City of Los Angeles

University of Southern California Sea Grant Program | December 31st, 2013

Climate change is expected to usher in an era of higher temperatures, increased precipitation and/or severe drought, and increased rates of sea level rise around

Climate change is expected to usher in an era of higher temperatures, increased precipitation and/or severe drought, and increased rates of sea level rise around the world. According to the National Research Council (NRC), global sea level has risen at an increasing rate since the late 19th / early 20th Century, when global temperatures first started to rise. Climate researchers believe sea level rise will drive storm surge and wave run-up higher than current conditions, thereby causing more extensive and frequent coastal, storm-driven flooding. Sea level rise in Los Angeles is expected to match global projections over the next century with anincrease of 0.1 - 0.6 meters (m), or 0.3 - 2.0 feet (ft), from 2000 - 2050 and 0.4 - 1.7 m (or 1.3 - 5.6 ft) from 2000 - 2100 (NRC 2012). Tides, wave-driven run-up, and storm surge play critical roles in coastal flooding in Southern California, especially when big wave storms occur at or near peak high tides. Sea level rise will potentially exacerbate the damage from these events.

Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it is not well established how single events and their structures change with warming. Here we use regional storm-resolving simulations to investigate climate change impact on western US winter storms. Under a high-emissions scenario, precipitation volume from the top 20% of winter storms is projected to increase by up to 40% across the region by mid-century. The average increase in precipitation volume (31%) is contributed by 22% from increasing area coverage and 19% from increasing storm intensity, while a robust storm sharpening with larger increase in storm centre precipitation compared with increase in storm area reduces precipitation volume by 10%. Ignoring storm sharpening could result in overestimation of the changes in design storms currently used in infrastructure planning in the region.

Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 28th, 2025

Small Water Systems and Rural Communities Drought and Water Shortage Contingency Planning and Risk Assessment, Part 1

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 25th, 2021

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42, which directs the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small wate

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42, which directs the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water suppliers and rural communities that may be at risk of drought and water shortage vulnerability, and to propose recommendations and information in support of improving their drought preparedness. The report is published in two parts: Part 1 deals with drought and water shortage contingency planning recommendations, and Part 2 presents a methodology of drought and water shortage vulnerability assessment and risk scoring. Additionally, below are links for Part 1 appendices. Appendix 1: Literature Review Appendix 2: Proposed Water Shortage Contingency Plan Components for Small Water Systems Serving 1,000 to 2,999 Service Connections Appendix 3: Proposed Umbrella Water Shortage Contingency Plan Components Appendix 4: Indian Health Service Template for a Drought Contingency Plan for a Tribal Public Water System Appendix 5: County Drought Advisory Group General Funding and Financing Issues

Small Water Systems and Rural Communities Drought and Water Shortage Contingency Planning and Risk Assessment, Part 2

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 25th, 2021

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42 which directs California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water sup

This report is submitted pursuant to California Water Code (CWC) Section 10609.42 which directs California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to identify small water suppliers and rural communities that may be at risk of drought and water shortage vulnerability and propose recommendations and information in support of improving the drought preparedness of small water suppliers and rural communities. The report is published in two parts: Part 1 dealing with drought and water shortage contingency planning recommendations, and Part 2 presenting a methodology and results of drought and water shortage vulnerability assessment and risk scoring. Additionally, below are links for Part 2 appendices. Appendix 1: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: California’s Small Water Supplier and Self-Supplied Communities Appendix 2: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: Risk Score Results of Small Water Suppliers Appendix 3: Drought and Water Shortage Risk Scoring: Risk Score Results of Self-Supplied Communities

Snow-eater heat waves of the western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 5th, 2026

Abrupt snowmelt, triggered by rain-on-snow events or “snow-eater heat waves,” can cause flooding, initiate or accelerate snow drought, and affect water availability.

Abrupt snowmelt, triggered by rain-on-snow events or “snow-eater heat waves,” can cause flooding, initiate or accelerate snow drought, and affect water availability. However, the characteristics (e.g., area, duration, and frequency), impacts, and trends of snow-eater heat waves have received little attention. To address this gap, we developed a method to identify snow-eater heat waves and estimate their melt potential using 20th Century Reanalysis version 3 air temperature data, the TempestExtremes algorithm, and an operational snowmelt model (SNOW-17) across 1850–2015. Melt season snow-eater heat waves typically last 3 to 5 days, with three to five events, doubling snowmelt rates. Seven of 11 spring superfloods are shown to coincide with snow-eater heat waves. Since the 1850s, snow-eater heat waves have increased in area and frequency, decreased in duration, and shifted earlier in the melt season. Incorporating snow-eater heat-wave impacts into SNOW-17 enhances extreme melt estimates, improving water management support tools.

Socio-economic and ecological trade-offs of flood management

European Geosciences Union (EGU) | February 20th, 2019

In light of climate change and growing numbers of people inhabiting riverine floodplains, worldwide demand for flood protection is increasing, typically through engineeri

In light of climate change and growing numbers of people inhabiting riverine floodplains, worldwide demand for flood protection is increasing, typically through engineering approaches such as more and bigger levees. However, the well-documented “levee effect” of increased floodplain use following levee construction or enhancement often results in increased problems, especially when levees fail or are compromised by big flood events. Herein, we argue that there are also unintended socio-economic and ecological consequences of traditional engineering solutions that need to be better considered, communicated and weighed against alternative solutions. Socio-economic consequences include reduced aesthetic and recreational values as well as increased downstream flooding risk and reduced ecosystem services. Ecological consequences include hydraulic decoupling, loss of biodiversity and increased risk of contamination during flooding. In addition, beyond river losses of connectivity and natural riparian vegetation created by levees, changes in groundwater levels and increased greenhouse gas emissions are likely. Because flood protection requires huge financial investments and results in major and persistent changes to the landscape, more balanced decisions that involve all stakeholders and policymakers should be made in the future. This requires a transdisciplinary approach that considers alternative solutions such as green infrastructure and places emphasis on integrated flood management rather than on reliance on technical protection measures.

Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land‐Surface Processes

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 9th, 2020

Floods often affect large regions and cause adverse societal impacts. Regional flood hazard and risk assessments therefore require a realistic representation of spa

Floods often affect large regions and cause adverse societal impacts. Regional flood hazard and risk assessments therefore require a realistic representation of spatial flood dependencies to avoid the overestimation or underestimation of risk. However, it is not yet well understood how spatial flood dependence, that is, the degree of co‐occurrence of floods at different locations, varies in space and time and which processes influence the strength of this dependence. We identify regions in the United States with seasonally similar flood behavior and analyze processes governing spatial dependence. We find that spatial flood dependence varies regionally and seasonally and is generally strongest in winter and spring and weakest in summer and fall. Moreover, we find that land‐surface processes are crucial in shaping the spatiotemporal characteristics of flood events. We conclude that the regional and seasonal variations in spatial flood dependencies must be considered when conducting current and future flood risk assessments.

State Investments in Delta Levees: Key Issues For Updating Priorities

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | January 9th, 2015

This paper outlines 15 issues that will need to be considered as the Council updates the Delta Plan’s 36 provisions regarding State investment in the Delta’s levees.

This paper outlines 15 issues that will need to be considered as the Council updates the Delta Plan’s 36 provisions regarding State investment in the Delta’s levees. It summarizes background information 37 about these issues, provides references for further information, and highlights key points that will need 38 to be addressed over the coming months.

State of California Sea Level Guidance

California Ocean Protection Council (COPC) | May 31st, 2024

This report updates and replaces the previous 2018 ‘State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance’ and marks the fourth iteration of statewide guidance since 2010 for s

This report updates and replaces the previous 2018 ‘State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance’ and marks the fourth iteration of statewide guidance since 2010 for state and local decision-makers to incorporate best available science on sea level rise into planning, design, permitting, investments, and other decisions.