Variable vertical land motion and its impacts on sea level rise projections

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | January 29th, 2025

Coastal vertical land motion (VLM), including uplift and subsidence, can greatly alter relative sea level projections and flood mitigations plans. Yet, current projection

Coastal vertical land motion (VLM), including uplift and subsidence, can greatly alter relative sea level projections and flood mitigations plans. Yet, current projection frameworks, such as the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, often underestimate VLM by relying on regional linear estimates. Using high-resolution (90-meter) satellite data from 2015 to 2023, we provide local VLM estimates for California and assess their contribution to sea level rise both now and in future. Our findings reveal that regional estimates substantially understate sea level rise in parts of San Francisco and Los Angeles, projecting more than double the expected rise by 2050. Additionally, temporally variable (nonlinear) VLM, driven by factors such as hydrocarbon and groundwater extraction, can increase uncertainties in 2050 projections by up to 0.4 meters in certain areas of Los Angeles and San Diego. This study highlights the critical need to include local VLM and its uncertainties in sea level rise assessments to improve coastal management and ensure effective adaptation efforts.

Water Temperature Modeling Platform Mid-Term Review

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | October 21st, 2021

Water: Science, Policy, and Management: Challenges and Opportunities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 1st, 2003

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 16. From the local to the global scale, water use and sustainabilit

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 16. From the local to the global scale, water use and sustainability are issues of pressing importance. Never before has water science needed to inform water policy so much, and never before have we seen how challenging it is to advance that relationship. How rapidly is the demand for water growing? What climate- or pollution-imposed limits to water supplies exist, and how can we best manage them? Will privatization benefit water management, resource development, and the environment? How can science work more closely with the policy and engineering communities to perfect knowledge-based water planning? Water: Science, Policy, and Management discusses these issues, and more. Scientists in water research and geography, water policy experts, water managers and engineers, lawyers grappling with water issues, and environmentalists concerned with the state of water internationally will find this book a significant resource now and in the coming years.

Wildfires, Floods, and Climate Variability

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) | May 10th, 2018

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how clim

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network. The study identifies opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. The second chapter analyzes National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data to quantify the economic impacts of flooding across the western United States from 1978 to 2007. The study compares National Flood Insurance Program data to National Weather Service measures of total damages, and presents a spatial and temporal analysis of daily claims and loss data over this period. The NFIP data reveals that a small number winter-season extreme hydrologic events, covering wide spatial areas, are responsible for a large proportion of total losses. In coastal southern California and across the southwest, El Niño conditions have had a strong effect in producing more frequent and higher magnitudes of insured losses while La Niña conditions significantly reduce both the frequency and magnitude losses. In the Pacific Northwest, the opposite pattern appears, though the effect is somewhat weaker, and less spatially coherent. The third chapter quantifies the economic impacts of flooding due to atmospheric river (AR) events in the western United States from 1978 to 2007, using NFIP claims and loss data. The study confirms that AR-related flood events cause significant economic damages and form the primary source of insurance claims and insured flood losses in the western coastal states. It provides spatial and temporal characterizations of damages as a function of integrated vapor transport (IVT) and antecedent hydrologic conditions. As the magnitude and frequency of wildfire and flood events change in response to anthropogenic climate change, and as economic and demographic contributions to vulnerability increase over time, public policy must adapt to respond. The results in these papers may be used to inform policies to mitigate losses and respond to future disaster scenarios, and may be of interest to policy makers and applied climate researchers alike.