U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) | January 1st, 2012
Summary
The San Francisco Bay estuary is highly vulnerable to climate - related changes including increased water temperatures, changes in precipitation and winds, and sea leve
The San Francisco Bay estuary is highly vulnerable to climate - related changes including increased water temperatures, changes in precipitation and winds, and sea level rise. Impacts such as increased inundation of coastal wetlands, changes in water availability and quality, and altered patterns of sedimentation and erosion are increasingly interacting with other human stressors such as extractive water uses and land use changes. Thus it is essential that estuary managers become ‘climate-ready’ by:
assessing the vulnerability of natural resources to climate change;
considering strategic choices among adaptation strategies in the near term;
and engaging in longer term planning based on a range of plausible scenarios of future change.
In an era of shrinking budgets coupled with increasingly complex decision-making needs—often taking place in a context of uncertainty and incomplete information— managing natural resources in the face of climate change will be challenging. There is a need for assessment methods that take advantage of existing scientific expertise to help identify robust adaptation strategies, weigh difficult trade-offs, and justify strong action, all in a timely and efficient manner.
The purpose of this project was to carry out a pilot vulnerability assessment for the San Francisco Estuary Partnership’s (SFEP) natural resources using expert judgment, the results of which could be linked to adaptation planning. To this aim, EPA’s Office of Research and Development collaborated with SFEP and the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission on a novel expert elicitation exercise for ‘rapid’ vulnerability assessment.
A trial exercise was carried out during a two-day workshop in which two groups of seven experts each focused on two key ecosystem processes: sediment retention in salt marshes and community interactions of shorebirds with their predators and prey (see Figure ES - 1). The exercise, which was based on formal expert elicitation techniques but tailored specifically for qualitative analysis of ecosystem processes, was designed to glean expert information on the sensitivities of ecosystem process components under future climate scenarios . This was followed by group discussions of the implications of the results for management in light of climate change, as well as feedback on the exercise itself.