Conceptual and Numerical Models of Dissolved Solids in the Colorado River, Hoover Dam to Imperial Dam, and Parker Dam to Imperial Dam, Arizona, California, and Nevada

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 28th, 2018

Conceptual and numerical models were developed to understand and simulate monthly flow-weighted dissolved-solids concentrations in the Colorado River at Imperial

Conceptual and numerical models were developed to understand and simulate monthly flow-weighted dissolved-solids concentrations in the Colorado River at Imperial Dam. The ability to simulate dissolved-solids concentrations at this location will help the Bureau of Reclamation satisfy the binational agreement on the volume and salinity of Colorado River water delivered to Mexico. A robust spatial- and temporal-resolution dataset that consists of river discharge and dissolved-solids concentration and load information between January 1990 and September 2016 for 10 sites on canals, drains, tributaries, and the main stem of the Colorado River between Hoover and Imperial Dams was generated. Daily mean dissolved-solids concentrations were estimated and monthly mean dissolved-solids loads were computed for each site. Spatial and temporal load patterns, and historical and current controls on loads and concentrations, were analyzed in order to develop a conceptual model of dissolved- solids transport between Hoover and Imperial Dams. Two numerical models describing the relations between dissolved- solids concentrations and components controlling dissolved-solidsconcentrations and loads were developed, calibrated, and verified. Between January 1990 and September 2016, there was a 98.8-million-acre-feet loss of water and a 57.0-million-ton loss of dissolved-solids load from the Colorado River between Hoover and Imperial Dams. Between Hoover and Parker Dams, about 69.0 million acre-feet of water was lost and 51.1 million tons of dissolved solids were lost; between Parker and Imperial Dams, about 29.8 million acre-feet of water was lost and 5.9 million tons of dissolved solids were lost. Water was removed from the river at a relatively consistent rate over the 25-year study period through water transfers to California and Arizona, evapotranspiration from crop irrigation, transpiration processes of riparian vegetation, and evaporation from the river main stem. Dissolved solids were removed from the river between Hoover and Parker Dams at a relatively constant rate through water transfers to California and Arizona, and water pumped from the river for irrigation within the Mohave Valley. A small amount of dissolved solids are gainedby the river from inflow from the Bill Williams River. Between Parker and Imperial Dams, however, dissolved solids were not removed from the river at a consistent rate over the study period. Dissolved solids were generally removed from the river from 1990 to 2012, then gained by the river from 2012 to 2015, and then removed from the river from 2015 through 2016. Dissolved solids are assumed to be removed from the river and accumulated within the floodplain sediments and aquifers during irrigation processes; some dissolved solids may also be removed from the river through uptake by crops and riparian vegetation. Dissolved solids accumulated on the landscape and in the floodplain aquifer during irrigation are transported to the river during periods when the hydraulic gradient between the floodplain aquifer and the river is increased, causing a gain in dissolved solids in the river. Dissolved-solids gains in the river occur during periods of relatively low river discharge, such as during the winter months and during drier climatic conditions. Two numerical models were developed and coefficientswere estimated by using data from a May 2008-September 2016 calibration period. One model simulates concentrations at Imperial Dam based on the Colorado River system downstream from Parker Dam, and the other model simulates concentrations at Imperial Dam based on the Colorado River system downstreamfrom Hoover Dam. Both models simulated monthly flow-weighted concentrations of dissolved solids for the Colorado River at Imperial Dam, which corresponded well with observed concentrations for the entire study period. The models are more sensitive to input variables of monthly discharge of the ColoradoRiver below Parker Dam and monthly flow-weighted dissolved-solids concentrations of the Colorado River below Hoover Dam and Parker Dam than to the rate of change in concentration with respect to time and the combined discharge of the Colorado River Indian Reservation Main Canal and the Palo Verde Canal. The calibrated models can be used to run scenarios of future monthlyflow-weighted dissolved-solids concentrations in the ColoradoRiver at Imperial Dam. Although the models are expected to provide concentration estimates within 18 milligrams per liter (Parker Dam to Imperial Dam model) to 22 milligrams per liter (Hoover Dam to Imperial Dam model), 95 percent of the time, the error of future scenarios increases as uncertainty in the estimated future input variables increases.

Conceptual model for salinity in the Central Valley and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Central Valley Drinking Water Policy Workgroup | July 13th, 2007

This report examines the state of knowledge about the causes of salinity increase in the system and opportunities to improve the Delta as a source of municipal and agricu

This report examines the state of knowledge about the causes of salinity increase in the system and opportunities to improve the Delta as a source of municipal and agricultural water supply. It begins with background information about salinity, its measurement, and its impacts. Following that, we present observed salinity in the Bay-Delta system. The conceptual models section, the core of this report, then seeks to explain the forces and processes (drivers) that cause the salinity patterns we observe. The computational models section introduces some of the tools available to assist with salinity management and planning. The last chapter explores the implications of the conceptual model for monitoring and management of salinity.

Conceptual Model of the Great Basin Carbonate and Alluvial Aquifer System

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | September 20th, 2011

Conceptual Model Review of Napa Valley Groundwater Model

Napa County | November 15th, 2010

The purpose of this technical memorandum is to provide a general review of the Napa Valley Groundwater model (groundwater model) produced by DHI Water & Environment (

The purpose of this technical memorandum is to provide a general review of the Napa Valley Groundwater model (groundwater model) produced by DHI Water & Environment (DHI) as part of the 2005 Napa County Baseline Data Report (2005 BDR) (Jones & Stokes et al., 2005). This memorandum is not intended to be a full peer-review in which model code, input/output files, and output results would be analyzed. Opinions stated herein are based solely on a review of the 2006 Final BDR Technical Appendix (DHI, 2006a), which presents the model code, model construction, calibration, and application of modeling efforts introduced in Chapters 15, 16, and 17 of the BDR. Further information on the groundwater model was reviewed from the 2005 BDR and a 2007 technical memorandum Modeling Analysis in Support of Vineyard Development Scenarios Evaluation (DHI, 2007) in which the groundwater model was updated/expanded and applied in evaluating various vineyard development scenarios. The scope of Luhdorff & Scalmanini, Consulting Engineers’ (LSCE) work, described herein, included a review of the conceptual model developed by DHI from which the inputs to the groundwater model were based. In addition, information provided on the model code, construction, and development of the groundwater model and model calibration were also reviewed. The focus of LSCE’s work was to assess whether the information provided in the reviewed documents was complete and whether the model can be used for the stated purpose for which it was developed.

Conceptual Model to Support PCB Management and Monitoring in the San Leandro Bay Priority Margin Unit, Phase One

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 1st, 2018

The goal of RMP PCB special studies over the next few years is to inform the review and possible revision of the PCB TMDL and the reissuance of the Municipal Regional P

The goal of RMP PCB special studies over the next few years is to inform the review and possible revision of the PCB TMDL and the reissuance of the Municipal Regional Permit for Stormwater, both of which are tentatively scheduled to occur in 2020. Conceptual model development for a set of four representative priority margin units will provide a foundation for establishing an effective and efficient monitoring plan to track responses to load reductions, and will also help guide planning of management actions. The Emeryville Crescent was the first PMU to be studied in 2015-2016. The San Leandro Bay PMU is second (2016-2017), Steinberger Slough in San Carlos is third (2017), and Richmond Harbor will be fourth (2018). The conceptual model reports for these four PMUs will be developed and presented using a consistent framework, and will build on each other to form an integrated assessment of these four areas. The lessons learned from these analyses will also be more generally applicable to similar contaminated sites on the margins of the Bay.

Contribution of Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Extreme Temperature Trends

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 24th, 2015

Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme wea

Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis, we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979–2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990–2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns.

Contributions of Climate Change and ENSO Variability to Future Precipitation Extremes Over California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 14th, 2023

Coupling a spatiotemporally distributed soil water budget with stream-depletion functions to inform stakeholder-driven management of groundwater-dependent ecosystems

Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union | November 12th, 2013

Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater-dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semiarid and

Groundwater pumping, even if only seasonal, may significantly impact groundwater-dependent ecosystems through increased streamflow depletion, particularly in semiarid and arid regions. The effects are exacerbated, under some conditions, by climate change. In social sciences, the management of groundwater-dependent ecosystems is generally considered a “wicked” problem due to the complexity of affected stakeholder groups, disconnected legal frameworks, and a divergence of policies and science at the cross road between groundwater and surface water, and between ecosystems and water quality. A range of often simplified scientific tools plays an important role in addressing such problems. Here we develop a spatiotemporally distributed soil water budget model that we couple with an analytical model for stream depletion from groundwater pumping to rapidly assess seasonal impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow during critical low flow periods. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool for the Scott Valley in Northern California, where protected salmon depend on summer streamflow fed by cool groundwater. In this example, simulations suggest that increased recharge in the period immediately preceding the critical low streamflow season, and transfer of groundwater pumping away from the stream are potentially promising tools to address ecosystem concerns, albeit raising difficult infrastructure and water trading issues. In contrast, additional winter recharge at the expense of later spring recharge, whether intentional or driven by climate may reduce summer streamflows. Comparison to existing detailed numerical groundwater model results suggests that the coupled soil water mass balance—stream depletion function approach provides a viable tool for scenario development among stakeholders, to constructively inform the search for potential solutions, and to direct more detailed, complex site-specific feasibility studies. The tool also identifies important field monitoring efforts needed to improve the understanding and quantification of site-specific groundwater-stream interactions.

Cumulative effects of fire and drought in Mediterranean ecosystems

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | August 18th, 2017

The occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilien

The occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilience. The effects of interacting disturbances on ecosystems are, however, not well understood. We use a model system based on Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) to examine how the interplay between vegetation regeneration traits andcompound, stochastic disturbances modulate ecosystem dynamics. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model including two tree species with contrasting regeneration strategies (seeder vs. resprouter) and a shrub-land formation. We aim to assess potential compositional switches under contrasted scenarios of compound fire–drought regimes, and to characterize the cumulative effects of fire–drought(synergism vs. antagonism) relative to the effects of individual disturbance regimes. Our simulation results indicate that interaction between moderate fire and sporadic drought recurrence—as opposed to chronic dryness—can act as a strong mechanism generating highly heterogeneous landscapes in which different regeneration types coexist, as observed in MTEs. Resprouters dominated under individual, moderate disturbance regimes of fire or drought, whereas the interaction of the two disturbances promoted the long-term coexistence of both tree regeneration strategies. However, shrub-land expansion and persistence at the expanse of forests was favored by increases in drought recurrence and associated fire–drought interactions, highlighting the potential for important vegetation changes in MTEs under climate change. Overall, the cumulative effects of fire and drought can lead to distinct landscape configurations under moderate disturbance regimes that are otherwise only attained under high frequency of individual disturbances. At the ecosystem level, however, we suggest that disturbance-induced vegetation dynamics can modify vegetation sensitivity and resilience to further disturbances precluding the prevalence of synergistic effects of the two disturbances.

Cuyama Valley, California Hydrologic Study: An Assessment of Water Availability

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | May 29th, 2015