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State of the Estuary 2019 Update

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | October 22nd, 2019

Summary

The San Francisco Estuary is a large and diverse system. Hundreds of miles of coastline stretch from the wide valleys of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers to the stee

The San Francisco Estuary is a large and diverse system. Hundreds of miles of coastline stretch from the wide valleys of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers to the steep headlands of the Golden Gate, with vast agricultural fields in the Delta and urbanized shorelines in Silicon Valley and many of the region’s cities. The complexity and scale of this system means it can take years to detect and assess changes. This interim State of the Estuary Report checks in on a few indicators of health and explores where the assessment should head over time. In the four years since the 2015 State of the Estuary Report, two issues have emerged as critical to how we assess the health of the estuarine ecosystem at the heart of the Bay Area and the Delta. First, the health of the Estuary and of the people who live near it and depend on it are inextricably linked. We need a healthy Bay and Delta to protect our shorelines from sea level rise, help keep our waters clean, provide food and habitat for fish and wildlife, and give people a place to enjoy nature. We also need to think more about human communities as we assess the health of natural communities. This focus means addressing environmental injustices that are deeply embedded in our culture and patterns of development. The second critical issue to emerge is the need for a greater focus on landscape resilience—how well the Bay and the Delta are equipped to respond to change—so that people and wildlife can thrive as climate change progresses. Taking these two ideas together, this report focuses on the nexus of social and ecological resilience as we look toward the future. The first section of the Report updates indicators of ecological health that span the entire extent of the San Francisco Estuary (Bay and Delta). Recent data show continued progress along the trajectories of the past decade. Tidal marsh restoration is proceeding at a brisk pace in the Bay and gaining traction in the Delta, while urban water conservation continues to meet mandated benchmarks, even during the drought. On the other hand, flows through the Estuary and across its floodplains continue to be well below levels that could increase and restore ecosystem health. Freshwater flows are a lynchpin of ecosystem processes that sustain physical habitats, fuel the food web, and regulate water quality. Creative approaches to using and re-using fresh water for environmental purposes are needed. Long-term trend analysis shows that fish communities in the Bay are declining. This analysis scores an index of 10 attributes of a healthy fish community. The index focuses on fish in offshore areas, and may not capture benefits to fish from near-shore wetland restoration projects. Despite this slow decline, fish communities in the saltier parts of the Estuary remain in good condition, while those in the brackish and freshwater areas are in poor condition. The next section of the report discusses three emerging indicators of Estuary health, offering options for how to assess resilience in future reports. Here, for the first time, the resilience of the Estuary’s shores is evaluated through the lens of subsidence and nature-based features. Elevation relative to sea level is a basic currency that must be tracked as the Pacific Ocean rises into the Estuary. The potential for the Estuary shore to be resilient to climate change and continue to provide benefits to people is related to how much of the shore zone is nature-based. The final emerging indicator, urban green space, is a first attempt to assess how access to nature is distributed across more and less advantaged communities. More work is needed to finalize all these emerging indicators before they can be included in any future quantitative assessment of the State of the Estuary. These emerging and updated indicators will help focus efforts to restore the Estuary’s health. In addition to continuing the successful aspects of restoration and conservation that this report describes, we need more investment in creative ways to use and restore flows for environmental health, to expand and build resilient shorelines and to weave considerations of social equity more strongly into efforts to improve environmental health. - J. Letitia Grenier, Lead Scientist

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State Water Project Adaptation Strategy

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 20th, 2025

Summary

This State Water Project Adaptation Strategy, developed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), presents a forward-looking roadmap for adapting the State W

This State Water Project Adaptation Strategy, developed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), presents a forward-looking roadmap for adapting the State Water Project (SWP) to the challenges posed by a changing climate. The SWP is one of the largest State-built water and power systems in the United States, conveying water through over 700 miles of canal. Starting in northern California and running through the Central Valley and Southern California, it supplies water to 27 million residents, 750,000 acres of farmland, and supports over $2.3 trillion in economic activity. With climate change accelerating the frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, wildfires, and sea level rise, the SWP must be modernized to ensure long-term sustainability, reliability, and affordability in water distribution.

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Status and Trends of Delta-Suisun Services

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 1st, 2007

Summary

Covering only about 1 percent of California’s area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, including Suisun Bay and Marsh (hereafter referred to as Delta-Suisun), contribute

Covering only about 1 percent of California’s area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, including Suisun Bay and Marsh (hereafter referred to as Delta-Suisun), contributes much more to the state and nation than one might expect from its small size. The Delta-Suisun provides a set of environmental and economic services whose benefits extend well beyond its borders. To help people gain a common understanding of these services, this report provides an overview of the existing status of these services and a perspective about how these services may change in the future. This report was prepared to highlight observations and to present a common understanding about the status and trends of key Delta-Suisun services. The Delta Risk Management Strategy (DRMS) is considering these observations while conducting a risk assessment for the Delta-Suisun and will report on its findings in spring 2007. Having a common understanding of the area’s services will benefit ongoing and new Delta-Suisun studies and initiatives. Information in this report will be considered by members of the Delta Vision Blue Ribbon Task Force and Stakeholder Coordination Group as they begin work on the Delta Vision and Strategic Plan.

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The case for strategic and managed climate retreat

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 23rd, 2019

Summary

Faced with global warming, rising sea levels, and the climate-related extremes they intensify, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat�

Faced with global warming, rising sea levels, and the climate-related extremes they intensify, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat—moving people and assets out of harm’s way—but why, where, when, and how they will retreat. To the extent that retreat is already happening, it is typically ad hoc and focused on risk reduction in isolation from broader societal goals. It is also frequently inequitable and often ignores the communities left behind or those receiving people who retreat. Retreat has been seen largely as a last resort, a failure to adapt, or a one-time emergency action; thus, little research has focused on retreat, leaving practitioners with little guidance. Such a narrow conception of retreat has limited decision-makers’ perception of the tools available and stilted innovation. We propose a reconceptualization of retreat as a suite of adaptation options that are both strategic and managed. Strategy integrates retreat into long-term development goals and identifies why retreat should occur and, in doing so, influences where and when. Management addresses how retreat is executed. By reconceptualizing retreat as a set of tools used to achieve societal goals, communities and nations gain additional adaptation options and a better chance of choosing the actions most likely to help their communities thrive.

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The effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. regional and coastal sea level

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 3rd, 2015

Summary

Although much of the focus on future sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, on shorter time scales, internal climate variabil

Although much of the focus on future sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, on shorter time scales, internal climate variability can contribute significantly to regional sea level. Such sea level variability should be taken into consideration when planning efforts to mitigate the effects of future sea level change. In this study, we quantify the contribution to regional sealevel of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis (CSEOF) of the long reconstructed sea level data set and of a set of U.S. tide gauges, two global modes dominated by Pacific Ocean variability are identified and related to ENSO and, by extension, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By estimating the combined contribution of these two modes to regional sealevel, we find that ENSO can contribute significantly on short time scales, with contributions of up to 20 cm along the west coast of the U.S. The CSEOF decomposition of the long tide gauge records around the U.S. highlights the influence of ENSO on the U.S. east coast. Tandem analyses of both the reconstructed and tidegauge records also examine the utility of the sea level reconstructions for near-coast studies.

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The Governance Gap: Climate Adaptation and Sea-Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 27th, 2017

Summary

This report summarizes the results of an extensive study of governance for climate adaptation and sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area (SF Bay Area), wh

This report summarizes the results of an extensive study of governance for climate adaptation and sea-level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area (SF Bay Area), where the concept of sea-level rise adaptation also includes coastal flooding from high tides and extreme storm events. We focus on the “governance gap” that exists between the problem of sea-level rise and the implementation of adaptation solutions that increase resilience. We take a broad view on governance as the set of institutional arrangements, governmental authorities, and public stakeholders who collectively plan and implement adaptation activities, including identifying funding strategies and the agreeing on the information basis for decision making. While most stakeholders recognize the risk of sea-level rise and other climate impacts, and have good ideas about potential on-the-ground solutions, realizing these solutions requires overcoming a series of governance challenges. All of these governance challenges are barriers to stakeholder cooperation at multiple geographic levels—local, regional, state, and federal. There are many different governmental and non-governmental actors facing the same sea-level rise problem (in “the same boat”), and coordination is required to have them “row in the same direction.” The imperative for multi-level cooperation becomes more poignant as the science on sea-level rise continues to advance, and considers the possibilities of higher average levels of sea-level rise and rapid and extreme sea-level rise due to accelerated melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. This report summarizes the major challenges, identifies the menu of possible solutions, and develops some specific recommendations on the next steps needed to remedy the governance gap and enhance the adaptive capacity of the SF Bay Area. The governance analysis is a component of the larger UC Davis/Berkeley research project called Resilience of Infrastructure as Seas Rise (RISeR), See Figure 1, which is funded by National Science Foundation to analyze the interactions between sea-level rise adaptation, transportation infrastructure, and governance in the SF Bay Area. The governance analysis was conducted in Fall 2016-Winter 2017, and is based on a qualitative case study that combines in-person interviews, focus groups, document analysis, and content analysis of interview responses. The draft report was made available to study participants in Spring 2017, along with two webinars for receiving feedback. Participants included leaders of governmental and non-governmental organizations across the SF Bay Area region. The research focused mainly on sea-level rise and coastal flooding, but also linked to broader issues of climate adaptation when appropriate. Focus groups deliberated on the best possible solutions to solving the identified governance challenges. Respondents identified the overarching governance challenge as the imperative for multi-level cooperation among all sea-level rise adaptation stakeholders. Sea-level rise adaptation entails interdependencies, where the vulnerabilities and adaptation decisions of local actors impose regional costs and benefits. While regional cooperation is beginning to emerge, most stakeholders see a critical need for shared learning, coordination and planning. The recommendations provided in this report are intended to accelerate the processes of learning and cooperation needed to address the increasingly urgent problem of sea-level rise and coastal flooding.

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The Impact of Sea Level Rise on San Francisco Bay

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 1st, 2014

Summary

Over the past century, sea level has risen nearly eight inches along the California coast, and general circulation model scenarios suggest very substantial increases in s

Over the past century, sea level has risen nearly eight inches along the California coast, and general circulation model scenarios suggest very substantial increases in sea level as a significant impact of climate change over the coming century. This study includes a detailed analysis of the current population, infrastructure, and property along the San Francisco Bay that are at risk from projected sea level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast. The sea level rise scenario was developed by the State of California from medium to high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change but does not reflect the worst?case sea level rise that could occur. If development continues in the areas at risk, all of these estimates will rise. No matter what policies are implemented in the future, sea level rise will inevitably change the character of the San Francisco Bay. We estimate that a 1.0 meter (m) sea level rise will put 220,000 people at risk of a 100?year flood event, given today’s population. With a 1.4 m increase in sea levels, the number of people at risk of a 100?year flood event would rise to 270,000. Among those affected are large numbers of low?income people and communities of color, which are especially vulnerable. Critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, power plants, and more will be at increased risk of inundation, as will vast areas of wetlands and other natural ecosystems. In addition, the cost of replacing property at risk of coastal flooding with a 1.0 m rise in sea levels is $49 billion (in year 2000 dollars). A rise of 1.4 m would increase the replacement cost to $62 billion (in year 2000 dollars). Continued development in vulnerable areas will put additional areas at risk and raise protection costs. A number of structural and non?structural policies and actions, which are described qualitatively, could be implemented to reduce these risks.

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The impacts of climate change on coastal groundwater

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 11th, 2024

Summary

Coastal groundwater (CGW) is a critical water resource for many communities and can be a key part of coastal ecosystems. Owing to its location, CGW faces both terrestrial

Coastal groundwater (CGW) is a critical water resource for many communities and can be a key part of coastal ecosystems. Owing to its location, CGW faces both terrestrial and marine effects of climate change while simultaneously being impacted by anthropogenic activities. In this Review, we discuss the expected impacts of climate change on CGW and CGW-dependent ecosystems. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding increases and precipitation and aridity changes will drive alterations in the amount, chemistry and fluxes of CGW. Impacts could also arise from changes in storm and cyclone activity, land and ocean temperature rises, cryosphere melt, ocean chemistry and coastal erosion, but the overall effect is understudied. Human-induced stressors, such as groundwater extraction, will interact with climate change impacts to alter CGW at different temporal and spatial scales. CGW-associated ecosystems are expected to respond to changes in an ecosystem and site-specific manner — for example, some coastal temperate and tropical ecosystems might be more impacted by seawater intrusion owing to sea-level rise and coastal flooding, whereas others, such as coastal polar ecosystems, could be more affected by increases in cryosphere melt. A comprehensive and global CGW observatory programme is needed to better understand baseline CGW conditions, track change and support resource management.

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The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast

Pacific Institute | March 11th, 2009

Summary

In an analysis prepared for three California state agencies, the Pacific Institute estimates that 480,000 people; a wide range of critical infrastructure; vast areas of w

In an analysis prepared for three California state agencies, the Pacific Institute estimates that 480,000 people; a wide range of critical infrastructure; vast areas of wetlands and other natural ecosystems; and nearly $100 billion in property along the California coast are at increased risk from flooding from a 1.4-meter sea-level rise – if no adaptation actions are taken. The Pacific Institute report, The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast, concludes that sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of the California coast, and that adaptation strategies must be evaluated, tested, and implemented if the risks identified in the report are to be reduced or avoided. Populations and critical infrastructure at risk are shown in detailed maps prepared by the Pacific Institute available online here. The report also explores how vulnerability to sea-level rise will be heightened among Californians who do not have a vehicle, do not speak English, or who live near hazardous waste facilities. Low-income households and communities of color are over-represented in these more vulnerable groups.

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The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) | September 24th, 2019

Summary

All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere. The global ocean covers 71% of the Earth surface and contains about 97% of the Earth’s w

All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere. The global ocean covers 71% of the Earth surface and contains about 97% of the Earth’s water. The cryosphere refers to frozen components of the Earth system. Around 10% of Earth’s land area is covered by glaciers or ice sheets. The ocean and cryosphere support unique habitats, and are interconnected with other components of the climate system through global exchange of water, energy and carbon. The projected responses of the ocean and cryosphere to past and current human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and ongoing global warming include climate feedbacks, changes over decades to millennia that cannot be avoided, thresholds of abrupt change, and irreversibility. Human communities in close connection with coastal environments, small islands (including Small Island Developing States, SIDS), polar areas and high mountains are particularly exposed to ocean and cryosphere change, such as sea level rise, extreme sea level and shrinking cryosphere. Other communities further from the coast are also exposed to changes in the ocean, such as through extreme weather events. Today, around 4 million people live permanently in the Arctic region, of whom 10% are Indigenous. The low-lying coastal zone8 is currently home to around 680 million people (nearly 10% of the 2010 global population), projected to reach more than one billion by 2050. SIDS are home to 65 million people. Around 670 million people (nearly 10% of the 2010 global population), including Indigenous peoples, live in high mountain regions in all continents except Antarctica. In high mountain regions, population is projected to reach between 740 and 840 million by 2050 (about 8.4–8.7% of the projected global population). In addition to their role within the climate system, such as the uptake and redistribution of natural and anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and heat, as well as ecosystem support, services provided to people by the ocean and/or cryosphere include food and water supply, renewable energy, and benefits for health and well-being, cultural values, tourism, trade, and transport. The state of the ocean and cryosphere interacts with each aspect of sustainability reflected in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence).

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