Economic Impacts of the 2020–22 Drought on California Agriculture

University of California, Merced (UC Merced) | November 22nd, 2022

California just ended its third consecutive year of drought, resulting in the driest three-year period in the instrumental record. Multi-year deficits in precipitation in

California just ended its third consecutive year of drought, resulting in the driest three-year period in the instrumental record. Multi-year deficits in precipitation in the state’s usually wetter northern regions have been compounded by increased crop evaporative demands, leading to water scarcity impacts to agriculture across the state. Although 2020 was a dry year, water reserves stored during the wetter years of 2017 and 2019 greatly diminished drought impacts during that year. The water outlook changed rapidly in 2021—the third driest water year on record with the highest evaporative demand. The northern regions of the state—including the Sacramento Valley, the Scott and Shasta valleys, the Pit River valleys (northern intermountain valleys), and the Russian River—faced unusually dry conditions. Drought emergency conditions in 2021 were proclaimed first in the Russian River, Scott River and Shasta River basins, which faced subsequent curtailments. Water curtailments were extended to the Sacramento Valley later in the season. Water for local agriculture, ecosystems, exports, and water quality protection in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta were compromised by low water reserves. Atmospheric rivers in October and December 2021 provided temporary drought relief for a portion of the state, but record low precipitation from January-September allowed for extreme drought conditions to reign into the 2022 water year. To overcome persistent precipitation deficits and below-average storage in major reservoirs, the state again implemented water rights curtailments and low water deliveries from the State Water Project. The US Bureau of Reclamation announced reduced Central Valley Project deliveries—including unprecedented cutbacks to senior contractors in the Sacramento Valley—and local agencies implemented cutbacks as a first tier of drought response measures. Compared with the 2021 water year, however, 2022 brought less severe water cutbacks in the San Joaquin Valley. This report provides estimates of the economic impacts to agriculture for first three years of the current drought, which began in 2020. We use a combination of climate, hydrologic, agricultural and economic models, supplemented by informal surveys of irrigation districts and remote sensing data. The study includes nearly 88% of the 8.7 million acres of irrigated crop area in the state (LandIQ, 2019) excluding idle land. Our preliminary analysis for 2020–21 (Medellín-Azuara et al. 2022), focused on the Central Valley, and also examined the Russian River basin (North Coast), and northern intermountain valleys in Siskiyou, Shasta, and Modoc counties. Here, we expanded our spatial coverage to include the Central Coast, South Coast, and Colorado River.

Economic tradeoff between domestic well impact and reduced agricultural production with groundwater drought management: Tulare County, California (USA), case study

Hydrogeology Journal (Springer) | November 8th, 2021

Formal policy analysis can aid resource management where groundwater is used intensively. Approaches for developing equitable and effective pumping allocations for drough

Formal policy analysis can aid resource management where groundwater is used intensively. Approaches for developing equitable and effective pumping allocations for drought are evaluated in the context of the 2012–2016 drought in Tulare County, California, USA. Potential economic impacts of policy alternatives on two user groups with conflicting interests are considered. Tradeoffs between losses of agricultural profit and response costs for domestic wells that run dry are estimated for various maximum groundwater depth policies. A welfare maximizing approach for identifying policies that limit depth to groundwater is evaluated and found to be ineffective because agricultural opportunity costs are much larger than domestic well costs. Adding a fee for additional drought groundwater pumping is proposed as a more impactful and balanced management policy approach. For the case study presented, a fee range of $300 to $600/acre-foot ($300–$600/1,233 m3) yielded an effective groundwater management policy for reducing domestic well impacts from drought and balancing agricultural impacts of drought with the need to replenish additional drought pumping in wetter years. Recent management policies enacted in the study area agree with this finding. These results may provide a useful perspective for analytically examining and developing groundwater management policies near the study area and elsewhere.

Effects of high temperatures on threatened estuarine fishes during periods of extreme drought

Journal of Experimental Biology (The Company of Biologists) | March 1st, 2016

Climate change and associated increases in water temperatures may impact physiological performance in ectotherms and exacerbate endangered species declines. We used an in

Climate change and associated increases in water temperatures may impact physiological performance in ectotherms and exacerbate endangered species declines. We used an integrative approach to assess the impact of elevated water temperature on two fishes of immediate conservation concern in a large estuary system, the threatened longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) and endangered delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Abundances have reached record lows in California, USA, and these populations are at imminent risk of extirpation. California is currently impacted by a severe drought, resulting in high water temperatures, conditions that will become more common as a result of climate change. We exposed fish to environmentally relevant temperatures (14°C and 20°C) and used RNA sequencing to examine the transcriptome-wide responses to elevated water temperature in both species. Consistent with having a lower temperature tolerance, longfin smelt exhibited a pronounced cellular stress response, with an upregulation of heat shock proteins, after exposure to 20°C that was not observed in delta smelt. We detected an increase in metabolic rate in delta smelt at 20°C and increased expression of genes involved in metabolic processes and protein synthesis, patterns not observed in longfin smelt. Through examination of responses across multiple levels of biological organization, and by linking these responses to habitat distributions in the wild, we demonstrate that longfin smelt may be more susceptible than delta smelt to increases in temperatures, and they have little room to tolerate future warming in California. Understanding the species-specific physiological responses of sensitive species to environmental stressors is crucial for conservation efforts and managing aquatic systems globally.

Emergency Drought Barriers

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 26th, 2022

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 25th, 2024

Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationar

Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends

Estuary News, February 2007

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | February 2nd, 2007

Estuary News, June 2022

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | June 15th, 2022

Estuary News, March 2014

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | March 15th, 2014

Estuary News, September 2014

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | September 15th, 2014

Evaluating effects of urban water use efficiency standards (AB 1668- SB 606) on urban retail water suppliers, wastewater management agencies, and urban landscapes (trees and urban parklands)*

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | January 15th, 2022

Click here for the companion draft chapter on trees and parkland

Click here for the companion draft chapter on trees and parkland