The Central Valley Project - Federal or State?

University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) | June 1st, 1955

The challenge of closing the climate adaptation gap for water supply utilities

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 29th, 2024

The Changing Nature of Atmospheric Rivers

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | March 15th, 2025

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are expected to strengthen in a warming climate, largely due to the thermodynamic (moistening) effect. Here, we show that this trend is already e

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are expected to strengthen in a warming climate, largely due to the thermodynamic (moistening) effect. Here, we show that this trend is already evident in historical reanalysis data using the AR Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) tier 2 AR detection tools (ARDTs) and variants of our own global AR detection applied to ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55 reanalysis data. Over the 1980–2019 (ARTMIP) and 1980–2023 (variants) periods, total AR area increased by 6%–9%. AR integrated water vapor (IWV) increased by 1.5%–2.5% while integrated vapor transport (IVT) increased by less than 1% and 850-hPa wind speed (|V850|) and vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC) both decreased. IWV increases were the most robust overall. All trend magnitudes were sensitive to subsetting, with fixed-frequency subsets consisting of the most intense AR grid points showing larger increases of 3%–4% IVT, 4%–6% IWV, and 6%–10% VIMFC, this last opposing a decreasing AR-mean VIMFC trend likely associated with large area increases. For individual ARs, maximum IVT and IWV increased at ;3–63 and ;1.5–23 the rate of AR-mean values, respectively. Regional changes were often even larger, particularly for extreme events, though most geospatial trends had low detectability under a false discovery rate control framework. Ultimately, despite considerable ARDT and methodological diversity, we found robust consensus moistening and expansion of ARs between 1980 and 2023. However, further research is required to determine the extent to which these trends are affected by reanalysis observational assimilation changes. For example, previous studies indicate that certain reanalyses misrepresent 1980–94 atmospheric moistening and so may underestimate historical AR expansion and intensification rates.

The Delta Plan

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | May 16th, 2013

The Delta Plan is a comprehensive, long-term management plan for the Delta. Required by the 2009 Delta Reform Act, it creates new rules and recommendations to further the

The Delta Plan is a comprehensive, long-term management plan for the Delta. Required by the 2009 Delta Reform Act, it creates new rules and recommendations to further the state’s coequal goals for the Delta: Improve statewide water supply reliability, and protect and restore a vibrant and healthy Delta ecosystem, all in a manner that preserves, protects and enhances the unique agricultural, cultural, and recreational characteristics of the Delta. Now the Council is considering updates to the Delta Plan. For information about the amendment process, please click here. Developed through eights drafts, hundreds of hours of public meetings and thousands of public comments over two years, the Delta Plan is guided by the best available science and is founded on cooperation and coordination among federal, State and local agencies. The Delta Plan is enforceable through regulatory authority in the Delta Reform Act that requires state and local agencies to be consistent with the Delta Plan. The Delta Plan was unanimously adopted by the Delta Stewardship Council on May 16, 2013. Subsequently its 14 regulatory policies were approved by the Office of Administrative Law, a state agency that ensures the regulations are clear, necessary, legally valid, and available to the public. The Delta Plan became effective with legally-enforceable regulations on September 1, 2013.

The Delta Plan: Ensuring a reliable water supply for California, a healthy Delta ecosystem, and a place of enduring value

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | May 16th, 2013

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the grand confluence of California’s waters, the place where the state’s largest rivers merge in a web of channels—and in

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the grand confluence of California’s waters, the place where the state’s largest rivers merge in a web of channels—and in a maze of controversy. The Delta is a zone where the wants of a modern society come into collision with each other and with the stubborn limitations of a natural system. In 2009, seeking an end to decades of conflict over water, the Legislature established the Delta Stewardship Council with a mandate to resolve long-standing issues. The first step toward that resolution is the document you have before you, the Delta Plan.

The disappearing Salton Sea: A critical reflection on the emerging environmental threat of disappearing saline lakes and potential impacts on children's health

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | February 6th, 2019

Changing weather patterns, droughts and competing water demands are dramatically altering the landscape and creating conditions conducive to the production of wind-blown

Changing weather patterns, droughts and competing water demands are dramatically altering the landscape and creating conditions conducive to the production of wind-blown dust and dust storms. In California, such factors are leading to the rapid shrinking of the Salton Sea, a 345 mile2 land-locked “sea” situated near the southeastern rural border region known as the Imperial Valley. The region is anticipated to experience a dramatic increase in wind-blown dust and existing studies suggest a significant impact on the health and quality of life for nearby residents of this predominantly low-income, Mexican-American community. The discussion calls attention to the public health dimensions of the Salton Sea crisis. We know little about the possible long-term health effects of exposure to mobilized lakebed sediments or the numerous toxic contaminants that may become respirable on entrained particles. We draw on existing epidemiological literature of other known sources of wind-blown dust, such as desert dust storms, and related health effects to begin to understand the potential public health impact of wind-blown dust exposure. The increased production of wind-blown dust and environmental exposures to such non-combustion related sources of particulate matter are a growing health threat, due in part to drought coupled with increasing pressures on limited water resources. Recent population-based studies have linked dust storms with cardiovascular mortality, asthma hospitalization and decrease in pulmonary function in both adults and children. A growing number of studies provide evidence of the acute health effects of wind-blown dust exposures among children, which with repeated insults have the potential to influence respiratory health over time. The shrinking of the Salton Sea illustrates a public health and environmental justice crisis that requires action and attention to protect the health and well-being of local communities.

The Draft State Water Project Delivery Capability Report 2021

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 31st, 2021

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has authority under state law to construct, operate, and maintain the State Water Project (SWP) to manage, store and de

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has authority under state law to construct, operate, and maintain the State Water Project (SWP) to manage, store and deliver water for the benefit of the State. This report is intended to provide information about the key factors affecting the operation of the SWP in California, its long-term capability as a source of water for beneficial use, and an estimate of its current delivery capability. This report meets the requirements of Attachment B to the Monterey Plus Settlement Agreement of May 2003. Water provided by the SWP is a major source of the water supplies available to many SWP contractors. SWP contractors consist of 29 public entities that include cities, counties, urban water agencies, and agricultural irrigation districts. SWP contractors’ local/-regional water users have long-term contracts with the DWR for all, or a portion of their water supply needs. Thus, the delivery capability of water from the SWP system is an important component in the water supply planning of its recipients, and ultimately affects the amount of water available for beneficial use in California. The availability of these water supplies may be highly variable. A sequence of relatively wet water years1 may be followed by a varying sequence of dry or critically dry years. Having good and reliable estimates on how much water each contractor will receive each year —- whether it be a wet water year, a critical year, or somewhere in between -- gives contractors a better sense of the degree to which they may need to implement increased conservation measures, or plan for new facilities or back up sources of water to meet their needs. The geography of California and the infrastructure of water transfer from the source areas, located in the Sierra Mountain Range, to areas of demand for water, makes the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta a key feature of the SWP’s ability to deliver water to its agricultural and urban contractors in the North Bay, the South Bay, California Central Valley, and Southern California. All but five of the 29 SWP contractors receive water deliveries by diversions from the Delta. These water diversions are pumped by either the Harvey O. Banks or Barker Slough pumping plants. DWR and the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the managing entities of the two statewide systems of water transfer in California, face numerous challenges in the operation of their diversion facilities in the Delta, and are regulated by several state and federal agencies to maintain, and enhance the Delta’s long-term sustainability. Maintaining suitable quality of water flowing in the channels of the Delta for the numerous in-basin beneficial uses, and the protection of endangered and threatened fish species are important factors of concern for the operators of the Delta export diversion facilities. Ongoing regulatory restrictions, such as those aimed at protecting the estuary’s resident and migratory fish species, are major challenges to a reliable and sustainable water delivery capability of both, SWP and the Central Valley Project (CVP) systems. Complications induced by climate change also pose the threat of increased variability in the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. The projected sea level rise caused by the increase in average temperature complicate efforts to manage salinity levels in the channels affected by tides. Additionally, higher ocean levels could result in more frequent water quality degradation in the Delta channels requiring additional Delta outflow to maintain water quality objectives. The 2021 Final Main Report (released at the end of March 2022) may include further information on climate change. Previously, the climate change scenario results were only discussed and presented in the Technical Addendum which is not published during the draft phase of the Delivery Capability Report (DCR). Other challenges include continued subsidence of Delta islands, many of which are already below sea level and supported by relatively unstable levee systems. Thus, the threat of a catastrophic levee failure becomes more significant as water pressure increases against the already fragile levees. The analyses in this report factor in all the current regulations governing SWP and CVP operations in the Delta and assumptions about water uses upstream in the Sacramento River and San Joaquin River watersheds. Analyses were conducted that determined the amounts of water that SWP contractors receive and the amounts of water they choose to hold for use in a subsequent year. SWP Delta exports have decreased since 2005, although the bulk of the change occurred between 2005 and 2009 and in 2019. The former reduction is due to the Delta regulations which constrained exports that culminated in the federal Biological Opinions (BiOps) which went into effect in 2008-2009. These BiOps restricted operations of the CVP and SWP diversion pumps. The later reduction is due to two main factors: 1) the amended Coordinated Operation Agreement (COA) with accompanying project operation changes which reduced SWP exports and increased CVP exports, and (2) a more conservative operation of Lake Oroville by the SWP. Many of the same assumptions on SWP operations described in the 2019 Report remains the same in this update for 2021, however, there were a few notable changes. These include the transition from CalSim II to CalSim 3 and CVP and SWP operational refinements. As a result, the differences between the 2019 and 2021 Reports can be attributed primarily to differences in hydrology, spatial and temporal expansion, more explicit groundwater and surface water interaction representation, and operational refinements. The most salient findings in this report are: Under existing conditions, the estimated average annual delivery of Table A water for this 2021 Report is 2,309 thousand acre-feet (TAF)/year, 105 TAF less than the 2,414 TAF/year estimated for the 2019 Report (Table 5-2). The likelihood of existing condition SWP Article 21 deliveries (supplemental deliveries to Table A water) being greater than 20 TAF/year has decreased by 20% relative to the likelihood presented in the 2019 Report (Figure 5-7).

The Economic Value of Carryover Storage in California’s Water Supply System with Limited Hydrologic Foresight

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 1st, 2021

The security and prosperity of California’s economy depend on a large, interconnected and highly engineered water supply system with vast surface and groundwater stora

The security and prosperity of California’s economy depend on a large, interconnected and highly engineered water supply system with vast surface and groundwater storage operated for over-year storage. Substantial public investment is needed to maintain and improve these systems with changing climate risks, increasing demands, and aging infrastructure. Hydro-economic optimization identifies promising opportunities for managing such systems, but scientific and engineering advances are needed to better incorporate hydrologic uncertainty and conjunctive management of streams and aquifers into such models. Over two decades of research the California Value Integrated Network (CALVIN) linear programming hydro-economic model has yielded insights for California’s inter-regional water system on many fronts, including climate change, groundwater sustainability, conjunctive management in southern California, water markets, and reservoir operations in Northern California. Yet there remains unrealized potential to improve the model’s formulation to better represent inter-annual hydrologic variability while concurrently developing reservoir control rules. To address this gap, this study implements linearized quadratic carryover storage value functions on 26 surface reservoirs and linear groundwater storage penalties on 32 groundwater reservoirs to optimize California’s inter-regional water system seasonal and inter-annual operations with limited seasonal foresight. A convex Pareto front tradeoff between total system cost and groundwater overdraft is developed through multi-objective evolutionary optimization of inter-annual carryover storage penalties. Resulting over-year storage valuations span a wide range of nearoptimal reservoir operations, suggesting substantial system flexibility and adaptability when managed in an integrated way. Generalized relationships between carryover capacity, carryover use, and the marginal value of carryover storage are drawn for the multi-reservoir system. When compared to carryover operations based on California’s current simulation model, CalSim-II, the performance of these near-optimal reservoir operations suggests room to improve currently prescribed reservoir control rules, especially in supporting more  sustainable conjunctive management with aquifers. Overall, this study demonstrates the practicability, feasibility, and utility for understanding large-scale integrated multi-reservoir conjunctive use systems using limited foresight with explicit carryover storage values.

The economic value of local water supplies in Los Angeles

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 21st, 2018

Los Angeles imports water over long distances to supplement local supplies. Reduced reliability of the available imports is driving many local agencies to promote conserv

Los Angeles imports water over long distances to supplement local supplies. Reduced reliability of the available imports is driving many local agencies to promote conservation and enhance local water sources. These include stormwater capture, water reuse and groundwater. But financial considerations are often a significant impediment to project development, especially when comparing new and existing sources. Here we demonstrate a comprehensive approach for evaluating the economic implications of shifting to local water reliance in Los Angeles County. We show that local water supplies are economically competitive. Results from integrated hydroeconomic modelling of urban water in Los Angeles identify cost-effective water supply portfolios and conservation targets. Considering costs across the ‘full-cycles’ of urban water supply that span agency boundaries yields better comparisons of planning alternatives. Throughout the region, many water retailers could successfully mitigate effects of imported water cuts while still supporting drought-tolerant landscapes, but some would suffer due to over-reliance on imports. Updating economic assessment methods would support needed innovations to achieve local reliance in Los Angeles, including infrastructure investments, institutional reforms, many more drought-tolerant landscapes and reallocated groundwater rights.

The Effect of a Receding Saline Lake (The Salton Sea) on Airborne Particulate Matter Composition

American Chemical Society (ACS) | July 12th, 2017

The composition of ambient particulate matter (PM) and its sources were investigated at the Salton Sea, a shrinking saline lake in California. To investigate the influenc

The composition of ambient particulate matter (PM) and its sources were investigated at the Salton Sea, a shrinking saline lake in California. To investigate the influence of playa exposure on PM composition, PM samples were collected during two seasons and at two sites around the Salton Sea. To characterize source composition, soil samples were collected from local playa and desert surfaces. PM and soil samples were analyzed for 15 elements using mass spectrometry and X-ray diffraction. The contribution of sources to PM mass and composition was investigated using Al-referenced enrichment factors (EFs) and source factors resolved from positive matrix factorization (PMF). Playa soils were found to be significantly enriched in Ca, Na, and Se relative to desert soils. PMF analysis resolved the PM10 data with four source factors, identified as Playa-like, Desert-like, Ca-rich, and Se. Playa-like and desert-like sources were estimated to contribute to a daily average of 8.9% and 45% of PM10 mass, respectively. Additionally, playa sources were estimated to contribute to 38–68% of PM10 Na. PM10 Se concentrations showed strong seasonal variations, suggesting a seasonal cycle of Se volatilization and recondensation. These results support the importance of playas as a source of PM mass and a controlling factor of PM composition.