Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | October 16th, 2019

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this precipitation response can be explained by El Niño’s spatial pattern, rather than internal atmospheric variability. In addition, observations and large-ensembles of regional and global climate model simulations indicate that extremes in seasonal and daily precipitation during strong El Niño events are better explained using the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which captures the diversity of ENSO’s spatial patterns in a single metric, compared to the traditional Niño3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in a fixed region and therefore fails to capture ENSO diversity. The physically-based ELI better explains western US precipitation variability because it tracks the zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection that drive teleconnections through the response in the extratropical wave-train, integrated vapor transport, and atmospheric rivers. This research provides evidence that ELI improves the value of ENSO as a predictor of California’s seasonal hydroclimate extremes compared to traditional ENSO indices, especially during strong El Niño events.

McMullin Area Groundwater Sustainability Agency Groundwater Sustainability Plan

McMullin Area Groundwater Sustainability Agency (MAGSA) | November 6th, 2019

McMullin Area Groundwater Sustainability Agency Groundwater Sustainability Plan (Revised)

McMullin Area Groundwater Sustainability Agency (MAGSA) | July 6th, 2022

Measuring Progress Toward Universal Access to Water and Sanitation in California Defining Goals, Indicators, and Performance Measures

Pacific Institute | September 13th, 2018

Most people in California take for granted the water and sanitation in their homes. They turn the tap and clean, relatively inexpensive, abundant water flows out.

Most people in California take for granted the water and sanitation in their homes. They turn the tap and clean, relatively inexpensive, abundant water flows out. They flush the toilet, and waste vanishes. Yet there are communities in California who do not have these basic necessities in their homes. In January 2018, over half a million Californians were served by water utilities that were out of compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The worst outbreak of Hepatitis A in recent memory occurred in 2016-2018 due to open defecation and lack of handwashing facilities for persons experiencing homelessness. California’s tribes continue to face problems of poor housing and water and sanitation service, with two-thirds of tribal communities reporting inadequate home plumbing in 2015. And the cost of water has increased for many, particularly among small and medium size systems, with 39 community water systems in the state charging more than $100 a month for 12 CCF of water. In response to the problem, California enacted the Human Right to Water in 2012, declaring that “Every human being has the right to safe, clean, affordable, and accessible water adequate for human consumption, cooking, and sanitary purposes.” The California State Water Resources Control Board (State Water Board) further recognized the need to address water and sanitation for disadvantaged communities when it adopted a resolution directing staff to “develop performance measures for the evaluation of the board’s progress towards the realization of the human right to water, evaluate that progress, and explore ways to make that information more readily available to the public,” and to “work with... stakeholders to develop new or enhance existing systems to collect the data needed to identify and track communities that do not have, or are at risk of not having, safe, clean, affordable, and accessible water adequate for human consumption, cooking, and sanitary purposes.” This report offers a unified framework on how to measure progress toward universal access to water and sanitation in California.

Measuring Progress Toward Universal Access to Water and Sanitation in California: Defining Goals, Indicators, and Performance Measures

Pacific Institute | September 15th, 2018

In January 2018, over half a million Californians were served by water utilities that were out of compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The worst outbreak o

In January 2018, over half a million Californians were served by water utilities that were out of compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). The worst outbreak of Hepatitis A in recent memory occurred in 2016-2018 due to open defecation and lack of handwashing facilities for persons experiencing homelessness. California’s tribes continue to face problems of poor housing and water and sanitation service, with two-thirds of tribal communities reporting inadequate home plumbing in 2015.1 And the cost of water has increased for many, particularly among small and medium size systems, with 39 community water systems in the state charging more than $100 a month for 12 CCF of water. In response to the problem, California enacted the Human Right to Water in 2012, declaring that “Every human being has the right to safe, clean, affordable, and accessible water adequate for human consumption, cooking, and sanitary purposes.”

Mechanisms of a Meteorological Drought Onset: Summer 2020 to Spring 2021 in Southwestern North America

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 2022

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agricult

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agriculture. Here, using reanalyses and SST-forced climate models, we examine the onset and development of this southwestern drought from its inception in summer 2020 through winter and spring 2020/21. The drought severity in summer 2021 resulted from four consecutive prior seasons in which precipitation in the southwest United States was the lowest on record or, at least, extremely dry. The dry conditions in summer 2020 arose from internal atmospheric variability but are beyond the range of what the studied atmosphere models simulate for that season. From winter 2020 through spring 2021 the worsening drought conditions were guided by the development of a La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean aided drought in the southern part of the region by driving the cool season to be drier during the last two decades. There is also evidence that the southern part of the region in spring is drying due to human-driven climate change. In sum the drought onset was driven by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and interannual climate variability and aided by natural decadal variability and human-driven climate change.

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 4th, 2022

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.

Memorandum of Understanding by and among Colorado River Basin Municipal and Public Water Providers

Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) | November 15th, 2022

Memorandum Report on the Floods of January and February 1969 in the Southern District of the Department of Water Resources

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | February 27th, 1970

Merced Groundwater Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Merced Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (MSGSA) | November 12th, 2019