Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | February 22nd, 2022

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addres

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

Guide for Developing Onsite Water Systems to Support Regional Water Resilience

Pacific Institute | January 26th, 2023

Across the United States, urban communities face growing water challenges, from water scarcity to flooding, pollution, aging water infrastructure, and more. These challen

Across the United States, urban communities face growing water challenges, from water scarcity to flooding, pollution, aging water infrastructure, and more. These challenges present risks, but also an opportunity to rethink how we manage water, including adopting circular approaches in new buildings that reduce their water footprint and improve urban water resilience. Onsite water systems, for example, collect, treat, and reuse water from onsite sources, including wastewater, rainwater, and stormwater, for non-potable water uses like toilet flushing, outdoor irrigation, and cooling. Onsite water systems have the potential to provide multiple benefits for a site, water and wastewater systems, ecosystems, and communities. They can, for example, help companies mitigate water- related risks, like water shortages that threaten to disrupt business operations, and support corporate water stewardship goals. For communities, onsite water systems can enhance water supply reliability, improve water quality, reduce localized flooding, and increase urban green space. The realization and magnitude of benefits will vary with the type of system, scale of adoption, and other context-specific factors. This guide helps site developers consider how onsite water systems can be planned, designed, and operated to provide multiple benefits, and contribute to planning and designing onsite water systems that advance water resilience, support equity, support the environment, and protect public health at the site, water system, and community scales. For each of these outcomes, the guide provides sample questions to consider, stakeholders to engage, resources to examine, and analyses to perform.

Guidelines for the Small Community Drought Relief Program

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | September 20th, 2022

Hazy Futures: Projecting the local impacts of global warming is a stubborn challenge. But cities need answers fast

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | June 5th, 2025

A wastewater treatment plant isn’t top on everyone’s sightseeing itinerary. But on a cloudless, breezy day in April, Agmed Weber, operations manager for the Walnut Cr

A wastewater treatment plant isn’t top on everyone’s sightseeing itinerary. But on a cloudless, breezy day in April, Agmed Weber, operations manager for the Walnut Creek plant—which handles more than half of the sewage here in Texas’s booming capital city—is an enthusiastic tour guide. He marvels at the foresight of those who built the jumbo plant a half-century ago, when Austin was a third of its current size. “They were really thinking about the future,” he says. Weber feels a similar pressure—to prepare for not only continued population growth, but also a hotter future. Austin is “in a tight space where we need to think ahead,” he says.

Henry Miller Water District Revised Groundwater Sustainability Plan, Kern County Subbasin

Henry Miller Water District | July 21st, 2022

This Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) for the Henry Miller Water District (HMWD) Groundwater Sustainability Agency (GSA) has been prepared pursuant to Water Code §1

This Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) for the Henry Miller Water District (HMWD) Groundwater Sustainability Agency (GSA) has been prepared pursuant to Water Code §10727. HMWD is located in the Kern County Subbasin (Basin 5-22.14) as defined by the Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) Bulletin 118. The Kern Subbasin is considered to be in a condition of critical overdraft and has been designated as a high priority basin. This GSP is one of the five GSPs being prepared in the Subbasin, which collectively has and will coordinate to avoid, to the best of their abilities, any and all Undesirable Results as a result of unsustainable groundwater management practices. HMWD formed its own GSA on March 15, 2017; it is the only Water District located within the GSA. HMWD GSA is one of five GSAs that are preparing a GSP within the Subbasin. This GSP, in coordination with the four other GSPs within the Subbasin, will provide a path to sustainability and the preservation of groundwater resources for all beneficial users of groundwater. Because the Subbasin has multiple GSPs, the GSPs are prepared under a coordination agreement. This Coordination Agreement exemplifies the ways that the various GSPs were able to work together to achieve a common goal: groundwater sustainability for the Subbasin. For example, the entire Subbasin has utilized Todd Groundwater’s services to analyze historic, current, and future groundwater conditions with a C2VSIM model. This Plan includes a description of the historic groundwater conditions in the Subbasin, a Subbasin water budget, sustainable management criteria for future monitoring, and projects and/or management actions that may be implemented to ensure groundwater sustainability is achieved by 2040 and maintained through 2070. Due to size, the file has been divided. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5

Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: Atmospheric rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern US

Springer Nature | February 7th, 2025

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the S

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the Southwestern United States (SWUS). Although El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main source of seasonal precipitation predictability for the region, outstanding Atmospheric River (AR) activity produced the unexpected regional wetness in each of these heretical water years (WYs). We define heretical WYs as those that result in precipitation anomalies that oppose those expected based on ENSO canon. We assess the contribution of ARs and other storms to these WYs, finding that heretical La Niña/El Niño WYs were characterized by anomalously robust/deficient AR activity. In California, precipitation accumulation during the heretical La Niña WYs was comparable to or even exceeded that observed during the exceedingly wet WY1998—the textbook canonical El Niño year. Our findings indicate a weaker/stronger relationship between ENSO and AR/non-AR precipitation, primarily driven by storm frequency. Although ARs can disrupt the ENSO-precipitation signal, ENSO still influences the frequency of AR precipitation in the southwestern U.S. desert, the region influenced by ARs that make landfall in Baja California, Mexico. These results highlight the complexity of ENSO's impact on precipitation in the Western US and underscore the need for a nuanced understanding of ENSO’s influence on ARs to improve seasonal precipitation prediction.

High-elevation snowpack loss during the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome amplified by successive spring heatwaves

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 13th, 2023

High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 7th, 2016

The location and persistence of surface water (inland and coastal) is both affected by climate and human activity and affects climate, biological diversity and hu

The location and persistence of surface water (inland and coastal) is both affected by climate and human activity and affects climate, biological diversity and human wellbeing. Global data sets documenting surface water location and seasonality have been produced from inventories and national descriptions, statistical extrapolation of regional data and satellite imagery, but measuring long-term changes at high resolution remains a challenge. Here, using three million Landsat satellite images, we quantify changes in global surface water over the past 32 years at 30-metre resolution. We record the months and years when water was present, where occurrence changed and what form changes took in terms of seasonality and persistence. Between 1984 and 2015 permanent surface water has disappeared from an area of almost 90,000 square kilometres, roughly equivalent to that of Lake Superior, though new permanent bodies of surface water covering 184,000 square kilometres have formed elsewhere. All continental regions show a net increase in permanent water, except Oceania, which has a fractional (one per cent) net loss. Much of the increase is from reservoir filling, although climate change is also implicated. Loss is more geographically concentrated than gain. Over 70 per cent of global net permanent water loss occurred in the Middle East and Central Asia, linked to drought and human actions including river diversion or damming and unregulated withdrawal. Losses in Australia17 and the USA18 linked to long-term droughts are also evident. This globally consistent, validated data set shows that impacts of climate change and climate oscillations on surface water occurrence can be measured and that evidence can be gathered to show how surface water is altered by human activities. We anticipate that this freely available data will improve the modelling of surface forcing, provide evidence of state and change in wetland ecotones (the transition areas between biomes), and inform water-management decision-making.

High‐resolution surface water dynamics in Earth’s small and medium‐sized reservoirs

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 12th, 2022

Small and medium‐sized reservoirs play an important role in water systems that need to cope with climate variability and various other man‐made and natural challenges

Small and medium‐sized reservoirs play an important role in water systems that need to cope with climate variability and various other man‐made and natural challenges. Although reservoirs and dams are criticized for their negative social and environmental impacts by reducing natural flow variability and obstructing river connections, they are also recognized as important for social and economic development and climate change adaptation. Multiple studies map large dams and analyze the dynamics of water stored in the reservoirs behind these dams, but very few studies focus on small and medium‐sized reservoirs on a global scale. In this research, we use multi‐annual multi‐sensor satellite data, combined with cloud analytics, to monitor the state of small (10–100 ha) to medium‐ sized (> 100 ha, excluding 479 large ones) artificial water reservoirs globally for the first time. These reservoirs are of crucial importance to the well‐being of many societies, but regular monitoring records of their water dynamics are mostly missing. We combine the results of multiple studies to identify 71,208 small to medium‐sized reservoirs, followed by reconstructing surface water area changes from satellite data using a novel method introduced in this study. The dataset is validated using 768 daily in‐situ water level and storage measurements (r2 > 0.7 for 67% of the reservoirs used for the validation) demonstrating that the surface water area dynamics can be used as a proxy for water storage dynamics in many cases. Our analysis shows that for small reservoirs, the inter‐annual and intra‐annual variability is much higher than for medium‐sized reservoirs worldwide. This implies that the communities reliant on small reservoirs are more vulnerable to climate extremes, both short‐term (within seasons) and longer‐term (across seasons). Our findings show that the long‐term inter‐annual and intra‐annual changes in these reservoirs are not equally distributed geographically. Through several cases, we demonstrate that this technology can help monitor water scarcity conditions and emerging food insecurity, and facilitate transboundary cooperation. It has the potential to provide operational information on conditions in ungauged or upstream riparian countries that do not share such data with neighboring countries. This may help to create a more level playing field in water resource information globally.

Historical and future relations between large storms and droughts in California

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 14th, 2016

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contribution

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contributions of the wettest days to overall precipitation dictate the state’s precipitation seasonality and frequent multiyear periods of drought (as precipitation deficit) and plenty is analyzed, historically and in projections of future climates. The wettest 5% of wet days in California contribute about a third of precipitation but about two-thirds of the variance of water-year precipitation. Year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation strongly reflect year-to-year fluctuations of contributions from the largest storms, with the large-storm contributions explaining about twice as much precipitation fluctuation as do contributions from all remaining storms combined. This extreme dominance of large storms is largely unique to California within the United States. In climate-change projections, eight of ten climate models considered here yield increases in precipitation from the largest storms, and when the increases are large, total precipitation follows suit. All of the models project declines in contributions from the smaller storms and models projecting total-precipitation declines reflect this decline. Projected changes in variance of water-year precipitation reflect changes in variance of large-storm contributions. The disproportionately large overall contributions from California’s largest storms, and their outsized year-to-year variability, ensure that the state’s largest storms dictate the state’s regimes of wet and dry spells, historically and in climate-change projections.