Hydrologic Model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960–2004

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 1st, 2015

Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by

Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process. Available measurements of groundwater pumped for municipal, irrigation, and drainage purposes are specified in the model, as are deliveries of surface water. Private irrigation pumping and recharge associated with agricultural land use were estimated by using the Farm Process in MODFLOW-OWHM, which simulates landscape processes associated with irrigated agriculture and other land uses. The distribution of hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer system was constrained by using data from more than 3,500 drillers’ logs. The model was calibrated to 4,061 measured groundwater levels in 109 wells and 2,739 mean monthly surface-water flows measured at 6 streamgages during 1960–2004 by using a semi-automated method of parameter estimation. The model fit to groundwater levels was good, with an absolute mean residual of 0.8 feet; 74 percent of simulated heads were within 10 feet of those observed. The model fit to streamflow was biased low, but reasonable overall; the absolute mean residual of streamflow was 780 cubic feet per second, and 68 percent of simulated streamflows were within 500 cubic feet per second of observed. Hydrographs both of groundwater levels and streamflow indicated overall an acceptable fit to observed trends. Simulated private agricultural pumpage ranged from about 780,000 to 1,380,000 acre-feet per year and averaged about 1,000,000 acre-feet per year from 1960 to 2004. Simulated deep percolation, or groundwater recharge from precipitation and irrigation, varied with climate and land use from about 1,100,000 to 1,700,000 acre-feet per year, averaging 1,360,000 acre-feet per year. Key limitations of the model with respect to estimating these large components of the water budget are the uncertainty associated with actual irrigation deliveries and irrigation efficiencies and the lack of metered data for private agricultural groundwater pumping. Different assumptions with respect to irrigation deliveries and efficiencies, and other model input, would result in different estimates of private agricultural groundwater use. The simulated exchange between groundwater and surface water was a small percentage of streamflow, typically ranging within a loss or gain of about 2 cubic feet per second per mile. The simulated exchange compared reasonably with limited independent estimates available, but substantial uncertainty is associated with these estimates.

Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 9th, 2022

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, resulting in an increase in floods and droughts. These changes increase the complexity of water resource management t

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, resulting in an increase in floods and droughts. These changes increase the complexity of water resource management that must balance between releasing water to reduce flood risk and storing water for long periods without precipitation. Using updated climate model projections, we show that the amount of precipitation during events will become larger combined with longer dry periods where the daily evaporative demand exceeds precipitation for much of the Earth's surface. Additionally, for the late 21st century, a large portion of the years will be hydrologically intense in major river basins, resulting in conditions that deviate from those for which infrastructure and management policies were developed.

Hydrology of the San Bernardino and Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 15th, 1954

Man's successful occupancy and development of the arid and semiarid parts of the earth will always be a planned and slow process. Planning is necessary be- cause the amou

Man's successful occupancy and development of the arid and semiarid parts of the earth will always be a planned and slow process. Planning is necessary be- cause the amount and distribution of the precipitation will generally not support the food crops to which he is accustomed. To provide the soil with enough mois- ture for crops, supplemental waters must be obtained from ground-water sources, distant surface streams, or from storage in mountain reservoirs. The planning, financing, and development of these supplemental sources require the united effort of many individuals, and as the population increases, water supplies that were once adequate may become insufficient. Thus, man is continually faced with the problem of obtaining enough water of high enough quality to meet his in- creasing demands. The problem requires an under- standing of the natural laws of occurrence and distribution of the water in the air, on the earth's surface, and underground. All life is dependent on these sources of water.

Hydrology of the Yucaipa Groundwater Subbasin: Characterization and Integrated Numerical Model, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 26th, 2022

Water management in the Santa Ana River watershed in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties in southern California is a complex task with various water purveyors navigatin

Water management in the Santa Ana River watershed in San Bernardino and Riverside Counties in southern California is a complex task with various water purveyors navigating geographic, geologic, hydrologic, and political challenges to provide a reliable water supply to stakeholders. As the population has increased throughout southern California, so has the demand for water. The Yucaipa groundwater subbasin (hereafter referred to as “Yucaipa subbasin”), one of nine groundwater subbasins in what the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) refers to as the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin (California Department of Water Resources, 2016; the DWR naming convention is used within this report), is no exception; steady population growth since the 1940s and changes in water use has forced local water purveyors to regularly adapt their water infrastructure to meet demand. Groundwater has historically been the dominant source of water in the Yucaipa subbasin although recently, imported water via the California State Water Project has augmented the total water supply. Despite the influx of imported water, overall demand for groundwater continues to rise, and there is concern by local water managers that groundwater levels may adversely impact water supply and (or) decline to a point where it will be uneconomical to produce water, severely limiting the ability of local agencies to meet water-supply demand. To better understand the hydrogeology and water resources in the Yucaipa subbasin, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District initiated a cooperative study to understand the hydrogeologic system of the Yucaipa subbasin and in the encompassing Yucaipa Valley watershed (YVW). A three-dimensional hydrogeologic framework model was constructed to quantify the structure and extent of hydrogeologic units. Historical and present-day groundwater conditions were characterized to evaluate the groundwater-flow system. Lastly, the Yucaipa Integrated Hydrological Model (YIHM) was developed to simulate the integrated surface-water and groundwater systems, including natural and anthropogenic (that is, human influenced) recharge and discharge throughout the study area from 1947 to 2014. The Yucaipa subbasin is an inland groundwater basin located about 12 miles (mi) southeast of the City of San Bernardino and about 75 mi east of Los Angeles, California. The subbasin encompasses about 39 square miles (mi2), including the City of Yucaipa. The geographic extent of the Yucaipa subbasin was established by the California Department of Water Resources, who defined the boundaries of the subbasin based on hydrogeologic transitions between crystalline rock and basin-fill sediments, active fault strands, surface-water drainage divides, and a portion of an adjudicated groundwater management boundary. Two groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley groundwater basin are adjacent to the Yucaipa subbasin, the San Bernardino groundwater subbasin to the west and the San Timoteo groundwater subbasin to the south. The Yucaipa subbasin is encompassed by the YVW, which is in turn comprised of three sub-watersheds that represent surface-water flow across and within the Yucaipa subbasin. Although the Yucaipa subbasin is the specific area of interest for this study, the entire YVW was considered for the purposes of characterizing the hydrogeology of the Yucaipa subbasin and for development of the YIHM. The purposes of this report are to (1) describe the hydrologic and hydrogeologic settings of the Yucaipa subbasin and aquifer system, (2) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Yucaipa subbasin and the encompassing YVW, referred to as the YIHM, and (3) present numerical results, including water budgets and hydraulic heads, and the effect of pumping and climate stresses (precipitation and temperature) on water-budget components. This document is an executive summary. Click here for an index and links to the full report and model.

Hydrometeorological characteristics of rain-on-snow events associated with atmospheric rivers

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 29th, 2016

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that play an important role in regional weather/hydrology. Rain-on-s

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that play an important role in regional weather/hydrology. Rain-on-snow (ROS) events during ARs present enhanced flood risks due to the combined effects of rainfall and snowmelt. Focusing onCalifornia’s Sierra Nevada, the study identifies ROS occurrences and their connection with ARs during the 1998–2014 winters. AR conditions, which occur during 17% of all precipitation events, are associated with 50% of ROS events (25 of 50). Composite analysis shows that compared to ARs without ROS, ARs with ROS areon average warmer by ~2 K, with snow water equivalent loss of ~0.7 cm/d (providing 20% of the combined water available for runoff) and ~50% larger streamflow/precipitation ratios. Atmospheric Infrared Sounderretrievals reveal distinct offshore characteristics of the two types of ARs. The results highlight the potential value of observing these events for snow, rain, and flood prediction.

Identification of fresh submarine groundwater off the coast of San Diego, USA, using electromagnetic methods

Hydrogeology Journal (Springer) | March 1st, 2022

Climate change has a pronounced effect on water resources in many semiarid climates, causing populated areas such as San Diego County (USA), to become more vulnerable to

Climate change has a pronounced effect on water resources in many semiarid climates, causing populated areas such as San Diego County (USA), to become more vulnerable to water shortages in the coming decades. To prepare for decreased water supply, San Diego County is adopting policies to decrease water use and to develop additional local sources of water. One new local source of freshwater is produced by a desalination facility that purifies brackish groundwater from the coastal San Diego Formation. This formation has been studied extensively onshore, but little is known about the geology or groundwater quality offshore in the adjacent continental shelf. Because most groundwater systems are interconnected and complex, further analysis is needed to identify offshore geology, possible sequestration of freshwater in the shelf, and potential pathways for saltwater intrusion. This comprehensive understanding is important because seawater intrusion may limit use of the San Diego Formation and longevity of desalination facilities. Controlled-source electromagnetic methods are uniquely suited to detecting offshore groundwater as they are sensitive to changes in pore fluids such as the transition from fresh to brackish groundwater. This paper describes results from surface-towed electromagnetic surveys that mapped the pore-fluid salinity and possible fluid pathways in the continental shelf off the coast of San Diego. The results indicate a considerable volume of fresh-to-brackish groundwater sequestered in the shelf, both in continuous lenses and isolated pockets, that appear influenced by fault systems and shallow stratigraphy.

Identifying the Amount of Wastewater that is Available and Feasible to Recycle in California

Water Research Foundation (WRF) | July 24th, 2023

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | March 1st, 2016

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Importance of subsurface water for hydrological response during storms in a post-wildfire bedrock landscape

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 29th, 2023

Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 13th, 2015

Global climate model (GCM) output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for climate change impact studies. Three existing bias correction met

Global climate model (GCM) output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for climate change impact studies. Three existing bias correction methods, and a new one developed here, are applied to daily maximum temperature and precipitation from 21 GCMs to investigate how different methods alter the climate change signal of the GCM. The quantile mapping (QM) and cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) bias correction methods can significantly alter the GCM’s mean climate change signal, with differences of up to 28C and 30% points for monthly mean temperature and precipitation, respectively. Equidistant quantile matching (EDCDFm) bias correction preserves GCM changes in mean daily maximum temperature but not precipitation. An extension to EDCDFm termed PresRat is introduced, which generally preserves the GCM changes in mean precipitation. Another problem is that GCMs can have difficulty simulating variance as a function of frequency. To address this, a frequency-dependent bias correction method is introduced that is twice as effective as standard bias correction in reducing errors in the models’ simulation of variance as a function of frequency, and it does so without making any locations worse, unlike standard bias correction. Last, a preconditioning technique is introduced that improves the simulation of the annual cycle while still allowing the bias correction to take account of an entire season’s values at once.