How to address agriculture’s water woes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 19th, 2024

Human alteration of global surface water storage variability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 3rd, 2021

Knowing the extent of human influence on the global hydrological cycle is essential for the sustainability of freshwater resources on Earth. However, a lack of water leve

Knowing the extent of human influence on the global hydrological cycle is essential for the sustainability of freshwater resources on Earth. However, a lack of water level observations for the world’s ponds, lakes and reservoirs has limited the quantification of human-managed (reservoir) changes in surface water storage compared to its natural variability. The global storage variability in surface water bodies and the extent to which it is altered by humans therefore remain unknown. Here we show that 57 per cent of the Earth’s seasonal surface water storage variability occurs in human-managed reservoirs. Using measurements from NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite laser altimeter, which was launched in late 2018, we assemble an extensive global water level dataset that quantifies water level variability for 227,386 water bodies from October 2018 to July 2020. We find that seasonal variability in human-managed reservoirs averages 0.86 metres, whereas natural water bodies vary by only 0.22 metres. Natural variability in surface water storage is greatest in tropical basins, whereas human-managed variability is greatest in the Middle East, southern Africa and the western USA. Strong regional patterns are also found, with human influence driving 67 per cent of surface water storage variability south of 45 degrees north and nearly 100 per cent in certain arid and semi-arid regions. As economic development, population growth and climate change continue to pressure global water resources, our approach provides a useful baseline from which ICESat-2 and future satellite missions will be able to track human modifications to the global hydrologic cycle.

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 6th, 2020

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we us

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, FM1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, FM2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. FM2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Hydraulic fracturing near domestic groundwater wells

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 12th, 2017

Hydraulic fracturing operations are generating considerable discussion about their potential to contaminate aquifers tapped by domestic groundwater wells. Groundw

Hydraulic fracturing operations are generating considerable discussion about their potential to contaminate aquifers tapped by domestic groundwater wells. Groundwater wells located closer to hydraulically fractured wells are more likely to be exposed to contaminants derived from on-site spills and well-bore failures, should they occur. Nevertheless, the proximity of hydraulic fracturing operations to domestic groundwater wells is unknown. Here, we analyze the distance between domestic groundwater wells (public and self-supply) constructed between 2000 and 2014 and hydraulically fractured wells stimulated in 2014 in 14 states. We show that 37% of all recorded hydraulically fractured wells stimulated during 2014 exist within 2 km of at least one recently constructed (2000–2014) domestic groundwater well. Furthermore, we identify 11 counties where most (>50%) recorded domestic groundwater wells exist within 2 km of one or more hydraulically fractured wells stimulated during 2014. Our findings suggest that understanding how frequently hydraulic fracturing operations impact groundwater quality is of widespread importance to drinking water safety in many areas where hydraulic fracturing is common. We also identify 236 counties where most recorded domestic groundwater wells exist within 2 km of one or more recorded oil and gas wells producing during 2014. Our analysis identifies hotspots where both conventional and unconventional oil and gas wells frequently exist near recorded domestic groundwater wells that may be targeted for further water-quality monitoring.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2015

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 23rd, 2016

Water year 2015 added a fourth year to the ongoing drought in California, with observations indicative of a changing climate, including record warmth. The Water year ende

Water year 2015 added a fourth year to the ongoing drought in California, with observations indicative of a changing climate, including record warmth. The Water year ended with record high temperatures, and preceded a period of historically low precipitation that started in 2012. April snowpack measurements in 2014 tied the historic record low of 1977. Expectations of a developing El Niño event in the eastern tropical Pacific fueled notions that water year 2015 would be better. However, during the first two months of the water year, warm temperatures persisted and precipitation continued to fall short of expectations.  The developing El Niño event stalled as California headed into the heart of its wet season. In 2014, the snowpack level was 25% of its average on April 1. That mark was shattered on April 1, 2015 when snowpack amounted to a meager 5% of average. Satellite-imagery compares the Sierra Nevada snowpack near the end of March 2015 to the average conditions in water year 2011. This extreme low in snowpack exceeds end-of-century climate projections. When accompanied by the record warm temperatures experienced in the 2015 water year, there is conversation of California having shifted to a new climate “normal”.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2016

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | September 5th, 2017

Water year 2016 ended up being different than expected, from a climate standpoint. Water year 2015 marked the 4th year of drought in California, ending with record high t

Water year 2016 ended up being different than expected, from a climate standpoint. Water year 2015 marked the 4th year of drought in California, ending with record high temperatures, record low precipitation, and a record low snowpack. Forecasts were for a strong, wet El Nino during water year 2016, with the potential to rival large flood producing events of 1983 and 1998, higher than average sea levels, increased wave action and potential damage along the coast, warmer than average temperatures, and above-average precipitation producing storms. As a result of the cooling of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and the decay of El Nino, only some of the anticipated impacts were realized, above-average precipitation and greater than average snowpack did not come to pass. While statewide air temperatures averaged lower than the record setting 2015 water year they were still well above the long-term record, ranking water year 2016 warmest 117 of 121 since 1895. Precipitation was above normal in the Northern Sierra with the majority of precipitation falling in January and March. Precipitation in the Southern Sierra was on average with the long-term trend. Differences in Northern and Southern Sierra precipitation were due to the majority of Atmospheric River landfalls occurring in the north including the two strongest occurring in the first two weeks of March while only two Atmospheric Rivers made landfall south of Monterey Bay. Statewide snowpack was 15 percent below average and impacted the April-July snowmelt with streamflow on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers by 32 percent and 22 percent below average respectively. Water year type was classified as “Below Normal” for the Sacramento River system and “Dry” for the San Joaquin. Overall, water year 2016 was an improvement to the previous four years of drought conditions with enough precipitation to offset some of the large deficits in water storage reservoirs.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2017

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 1st, 2018

Water year (WY) 2017 began with lingering impacts from a severe and prolonged drought mitigated slightly by the previous WY. Expectations were uncertain for the W

Water year (WY) 2017 began with lingering impacts from a severe and prolonged drought mitigated slightly by the previous WY. Expectations were uncertain for the WY with the potential for a weak La Nina event taking shape in the eastern tropical Pacific. Dry weather, cold storms or warm storms are all possible in this circulation pattern. No one foresaw the epic year that was about to unfold.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2018

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 31st, 2020

Water year (WY) 2018 whipsawed from dry to wet and added high heat for the summer. The WY ended with 82 percent of average precipitation in the Northern Sierra and 20 per

Water year (WY) 2018 whipsawed from dry to wet and added high heat for the summer. The WY ended with 82 percent of average precipitation in the Northern Sierra and 20 percent below average April-July streamflow in the Sacramento River and 19 percent below average for the San Joaquin River. Peak statewide snowpack was only 60 percent of average. While precipitation and stream flow were below average, the big story of the 2018 WY were record temperatures that lead to several unprecedented and deadly wildfires in the state.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2019

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 30th, 2020

Water year (WY) 2019 continued to demonstrate effects of climate change with greater variability and more extremes. Hydroclimate extremes presented themselves with atmosp

Water year (WY) 2019 continued to demonstrate effects of climate change with greater variability and more extremes. Hydroclimate extremes presented themselves with atmospheric rivers causing both flooding and heavy snowpack. Before the wet winter and spring months, California experienced a very dry fall in where the devastating Camp Fire started on November 8, 2018 in Butte County. Fall transitioned to into a wet winter with 64 percent of the WY total for the DWR Northern 8-station index falling in the three months of January, February and March. Temperatures went from extreme cold in February to hot in August as the year progressed from winter to summer.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2020

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 31st, 2021

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were ne

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were new extremes with a very dry February and very hot end to the water year. Late fall precipitation onset continued with the first significant storm of the year arriving in late November. The WY ended with 67 percent of average precipitation statewide and 62 percent of average in the Northern Sierra. For runoff, the Sacramento Basin had 66 percent of average April-July streamflow while the San Joaquin Basin had 58 percent of average. Peak statewide snowpack was 62 percent of average reaching that point in early April with a late season storm providing some offset to the winter’s dryness. February was one of the big stories of WY 2020 with record low precipitation. In a year of extremes, August and September also contributed record warmth for the month including a 130-degree Fahrenheit reading at Death Valley on August 16, 2020. This observation, if verified by the World Meteorological Organization, would be one of the hottest daily temperature maximums recorded on Earth. Several cities set new records for days above 90 degrees as well.