Driving forces of land surface temperature anomalous changes in North America in 2002–2018

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 24th, 2020

The land surface temperature (LST) changes in North America are very abnormal recently, but few studies have systematically researched these anomalies from seve

The land surface temperature (LST) changes in North America are very abnormal recently, but few studies have systematically researched these anomalies from several aspects, especially the influencing forces. After reconstructing higher quality MODIS monthly LST data (0.05° * 0.05°) in 2002–2018, we analyzed the LST changes especially anomalous changes and their driving forces in North America. Here we show that North America warmed at the rate of 0.02 °C/y. The LST changes in three regions, including frigid region in the northwestern (0.12 °C/y), the west coast from 20°N–40°N (0.07 °C/y), and the tropics south of 20°N (0.04 °C/y), were extremely abnormal. The El Nino and La Nina were the main drivers for the periodical highest and lowest LST, respectively. The North Atlantic Oscillation was closed related to the opposite change of LSt in the northeastern north America and the southeastern United States, and the warming trend of the Florida peninsula in winter was closely related to enhancement of the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index showed a positive correlation with the LST in most Alaska. Vegetation and atmospheric water vapor also had a profound influence on the LST changes, but it had obvious difference in latitude.

Drought and Groundwater Sustainability in California’s Farming Regions

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | June 25th, 2024

Drought and the California Delta—A Matter of Extremes

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 14th, 2014

California is in an extreme drought as a result of low precipitation in water year 2012, record low precipitation in 2013, and the remarkably dry first few months of 2014

California is in an extreme drought as a result of low precipitation in water year 2012, record low precipitation in 2013, and the remarkably dry first few months of 2014. We typically receive our largest precipitation totals in Decembers and Januaries (which provide about 36% of the precipitation in the Delta’s catchment), and when those months are as dry as they were this year, subsequent months have to be unseasonably wet to avoid drought. Most of the current winter, especially December 2013–January 2014, was dry because a persistent ridge of high (atmospheric) pressures set up offshore, diverting storms away from California and into Alaska. That same diversion gave the Delta’s catchment its warmest winter in 120 years, as well as bringing all that cold weather to the eastern US. While the February 2014 storms provided minor relief and momentarily slowed the spiral into deeper drought, the drought continues apace. Nonetheless, as harsh as it is, the current drought is not unprecedented in the Delta’s history, and even less so in its prehistory. In this essay, we consider the ways that droughts in California arise from a few missing storms and from long-term variations and changes in climate, in order to identify drought-science needs for Delta management. 

Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 20th, 2020

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical ear

Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P < 0.01) elevation dependence, with lower-elevation coastal areas most impacted by warming. Ancillary predictive information can only partially mitigate snow-based predictability losses to 65% of areas, underscoring the importance of declining future snowpack.

Drought Management and Climate Adaptation of Small, Self-Sufficient Drinking Water Systems in California

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 15th, 2018

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This

Examining human impacts, responses, and challenges to extreme climatic events can give insight into needed directions for climate adaptation to reduce future risks. This study focuses on the 2012-2016 Drought in California, documenting how small self-sufficient drinking water systems were affected and challenged by, and responded to the extreme event.

Drought water right curtailment analysis for California’s Eel river

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | February 1st, 2018

Water users in California’s hybrid water rights system have different legal priorities to available surface water in times of water scarcity. A set of two linear progra

Water users in California’s hybrid water rights system have different legal priorities to available surface water in times of water scarcity. A set of two linear programming models was developed to determine curtailments of water use under drought conditions according to riparian and appropriative water right doctrines with spatially varying water availability and water rights within a basin. The models were implemented in spreadsheets and extended to estimate water right reliability and factors of safety in water rights administration. Alternate methods for calculating water use curtailments are discussed. Curtailments from the models are compared with actual water shortage notices issued by the state for the Eel River, California for June 30, 2014. Analyzing water use curtailments with an algorithm in spreadsheet software offers a mechanistic, transparent, accessible, and precise approach derived from legal doctrines to support water rights administration during drought.

Dry groundwater wells in the western United States

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | July 28th, 2017

Declining groundwater levels are common in parts of the western US, but their impact on the ability of wells to pump groundwater is not known. Here we collate groundwater

Declining groundwater levels are common in parts of the western US, but their impact on the ability of wells to pump groundwater is not known. Here we collate groundwater well records for the western United States and present the recorded locations, depths, and purposes of more than two million groundwater wells constructed between 1950 and 2015. We then use the well records to estimate the percentage of wells that were dry during the years 2013–2015. During the two-year period, dry wells were concentrated in rural areas with high agricultural productivity, such as parts of the California Central Valley and the High Plains. Our results support anecdotal evidence that wells used for domestic purposes are more susceptible to drying than wells used for agricultural purposes throughout California’s Central Valley because the former tend to be shallower. However, this is not the case in all regions. Our findings suggest that declining groundwater levels are threatening drinking water reliability and agricultural productivity, and consequently, have key implications for both domestic and agricultural water security. Ongoing reductions to groundwater storage are drying groundwater wells in the western US, and this manifestation of water scarcity warrants innovative groundwater management transcending status quos.

Dynamical and Thermodynamical Causes of Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle over North America in Response to Global Warming

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 15th, 2014

The mechanisms of model-projected atmospheric moisture budget change across North America are exam- ined in simulations conducted with 22 models from phase 5 of t

The mechanisms of model-projected atmospheric moisture budget change across North America are exam- ined in simulations conducted with 22 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Modern-day model budgets are validated against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis. In the winter half year transient eddies converge moisture across the continent while the mean flow wets the west from central California northward and dries the southwest. In the summer half year there is widespread mean flow moisture divergence across the west and convergence over the Great Plains that is offset by transient eddy divergence. In the winter half year the models project drying for the southwest and wetting to the north. Changes in the mean flow moisture convergence are largely responsible across the west but intensified transient eddy moisture convergence wets the northeast. In the summer half year widespread declines in precipitation minus evaporation (P 2 E) are supported by mean flow moisture divergence across the west and transient eddy divergence in the Great Plains. The changes in mean flow convergence are related to increases in specific humidity but also depend on changes in the mean flow including increased low-level divergence in the U.S. Southwest and a zonally varying wave that wets the North American west and east coasts in winter and dries the U.S. Southwest. Increased transient eddy fluxes occur even as low-level eddy activity weakens and arise from strengthened humidity gradients. A full explanation of North American hydroclimate changes will require ex- planation of mean and transient circulation changes and the coupling between the moisture and circulation fields.

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 12th, 2015

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase

This study examines future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The result reveals a strikingly large increase of AR days by the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, with fractional increases between 50% and 600%, depending on the seasons and landfall locations. These increases are predominantly controlled by the super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate of increase of atmospheric water vapor with warming, while changes of winds that transport moisture in the ARs, or dynamical effect, mostly counter the thermodynamical effect of increasing water vapor, limiting the increase of AR events in the future. The consistent negative effect of wind changes on AR days during spring and fall can be linked to the robust poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin.

Earth’s clouds are shrinking, boosting global warming

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | December 19th, 2024

For more than 20 years, NASA instruments in space have tracked a growing imbalance in Earth’s solar energy budget, with more energy entering than leaving the planet. Mu

For more than 20 years, NASA instruments in space have tracked a growing imbalance in Earth’s solar energy budget, with more energy entering than leaving the planet. Much of that imbalance can be pinned on humanity’s greenhouse gases emissions, which trap heat in the atmosphere. But explaining the rest has been a challenge. The loss of reflective ice, exposing darker ground and water that absorb more heat, isn’t enough to explain the deficit, and the decline in light-reflecting hazes as countries clean up or close polluting industry falls short as well. “Nobody can get a number that’s even close,” says George Tselioudis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.