Colorado River Aqueduct Route Selected for Metropolitan Water District Requires Pumping

Civil Engineering | February 10th, 1931

Colorado River Basin August 2022 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 16th, 2022

Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology State of the Science

University of Colorado, Boulder | April 15th, 2020

The Colorado River Basin currently faces unprecedented stresses. Persistent dry conditions since 2000, along with the increasing recognition that warming temperatures are

The Colorado River Basin currently faces unprecedented stresses. Persistent dry conditions since 2000, along with the increasing recognition that warming temperatures are impacting the hydrology of the basin, have led to great concerns about the long-term reliability of basin water supplies. With ever-higher stakes for water resource planning and decision making, an even greater emphasis is placed on the tools that support those activities, notably Reclamation’s operations and planning models and similar models used at other agencies. The usefulness of these system models depends on many types of datasets and forecasts that serve as inputs to them, as well as the research and scientific understanding underpinning this complex chain of data and models. The development and refinement of the different links of the chain necessarily involves researchers, forecasters, and water managers. New research efforts have advanced our understanding of the hydroclimate of the basin and how key hydroclimate processes, variability, and changes can be captured in data and models. This rapid expansion of the scientific knowledge base, and the increasing complexity of the data and models used to operationalize that knowledge, parallel the growing uncertainties about the future climate and hydrology. Accordingly, basin stakeholders have recognized the importance of reassessing the scientific and technical basis for management and planning.

Colorado River Basin Ten Tribes Partnership Tribal Water Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | December 13th, 2018

The Colorado River Basin Tribes Partnership (a.k.a. Ten Tribes Partnership) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) initially undertook the Colorado River Basin Triba

The Colorado River Basin Tribes Partnership (a.k.a. Ten Tribes Partnership) and the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) initially undertook the Colorado River Basin Tribal Water Study to augment the data produced for the Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand Study of 2012. With five tribes in the Upper Basin and five tribes in the Lower Basin, and between us, holding rights to more than 2.8 million acre-feet per year of water from the Colorado River and its tributaries, the Ten Tribes Partnership was uniquely positioned to explore these issues. However, in so doing, we learned that the effort would also serve to facilitate a broader and, we hope, a better understanding of the role tribal water plays, and will play, in the Colorado River Basin over the coming decades. In addition to producing technical information, the Tribes had other goals. First, we wanted to better understand how, at present, each of our individual water use scenarios fits into the overall scheme of Colorado River Basin management. Second, we wanted to know how future development of tribal water resources will alter Basin operations and affect other water users who are now using water to which a tribe may hold legal title, but which the title-holding tribe has not yet developed for its own use. Finally, we wanted to assess – to the extent present information allows – the role future development of tribal water rights will have on Basin operations. Along the way, we encountered data gaps, modeling limitations, and uncertainties, but nonetheless, with the support of Reclamation, we managed to address those issues sufficiently that we now provide this Report. If there is a ‘take-away’ that was surprising, it is that, even under the most favorable of circumstances for rapid tribal water development, the amount of water that will be used by the Tribes is dramatically overshadowed by the effect of climatic conditions on the overall supply of water in the Basin. Nature is still in charge. Challenges remain, but opportunities are in the offing. We hope this Report informs, resolves some uncertainty about how tribes perceive the future for their water uses, and establishes a baseline for discussions and development of relationships among tribes, states, the federal government, water managers, and water users throughout the Basin.

Colorado River Compact, 1922

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | November 24th, 1922

Colorado River Drought Contingency Plan Authorization

United States Congress | April 16th, 2019

Authorized Drought Contingency Plans (DCPs) for the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins, which required reduced Lower Basin deliveries beyond previous curtailment plans

Authorized Drought Contingency Plans (DCPs) for the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins, which required reduced Lower Basin deliveries beyond previous curtailment plans at specified Lake Mead storage levels, committed Reclamation to additional water conservation efforts, and put in place plans to coordinate Upper Basin operations to enhance Lake Powell storage levels and prevent the loss of hydropower generation.

Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | February 20th, 2020

The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain and governing processes are poorly understood, impeding climate-change adaptation. A prom

The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain and governing processes are poorly understood, impeding climate-change adaptation. A prominent exemplar is the Colorado River, where meteorological drought and warming have been shrinking a water resource that supports more than US$1 trillion per year of economic activity. Monte-Carlo simulation with a radiation-aware hydrologic model resolves the longstanding, wide disparity in sensitivity estimates and reveals the controlling physical processes. We estimate that annual-mean discharge has been decreasing by 9.3% per °C of warming due to increased evapotranspiration, mainly driven by snow loss and consequent decrease of reflection of solar radiation. Projected precipitation increases likely will not suffice to counter fully the robust, thermodynamically induced drying. Increasing risk of severe water shortages is expected.

Colorado River Shortage FAQs

Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) | August 1st, 2022

Colorado River Storage Project of 1956

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | April 11th, 1956

Colorado River water supply is predictable on multi-year timescales owing to long-term ocean memory

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 9th, 2020

Skillful multi-year climate forecasts provide crucial information for decision-makers and resource managers to mitigate water scarcity, yet such forecasts remain challen

Skillful multi-year climate forecasts provide crucial information for decision-makers and resource managers to mitigate water scarcity, yet such forecasts remain challenging due to unpredictable weather noise and the lack of dynamical model capability. Here we demonstrate that the annual water supply of the Colorado River is predictable up to several years in advance by a drift-free decadal climate prediction system using a fully coupled climate model. Observational analyses and model experiments show that prolonged shortages of water supply in the Colorado River are significantly linked to sea surface temperature precursors including tropical Pacific cooling, North Pacific warming, and southern tropical Atlantic warming. In the Colorado River basin, the water deficits can reduce crop yield and increase wildfire potential. Thus, a multi-year prediction of severe water shortages in the Colorado River basin could be useful as an early indicator of subsequent agricultural loss and wildfire risk.