Westside Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Westlands Water District | January 23rd, 2020

What If California’s Drought Continues?

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | August 20th, 2015

California is in the fourth year of a severe, hot drought—the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Although no sector has been untouched, impacts so

California is in the fourth year of a severe, hot drought—the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Although no sector has been untouched, impacts so far have varied greatly, reflecting different levels of drought preparedness. Urban areas are in the best shape, thanks to sustained investments in diversified water portfolios and conservation. Farmers are more vulnerable, but they are also adapting. The greatest vulnerabilities are in some low-income rural communities where wells are running dry and in California’s wetlands, rivers, and forests, where the state’s iconic biodiversity is under extreme threat. Two to three more years of drought will increase challenges in all areas and require continued—and likely increasingly difficult—adaptations. Emergency programs will need to be significantly expanded to get drinking water to rural residents and to prevent major losses of waterbirds and extinctions of numerous native fish species, including most salmon runs. California also needs to start a longer-term effort to build drought resilience in the most vulnerable areas.

Who makes decisions about California's water?

Restore the Delta | January 9th, 2023

This project collected and created data on California's water managers at the state, local and individual level to determine their race and gender. At the State level, we

This project collected and created data on California's water managers at the state, local and individual level to determine their race and gender. At the State level, we used the State Workforce Analysis to examine the race and gender of water-related state executives. At the local level, we coded about 1500 directors of water agencies for race and gender and then compared each board to the race and gender of the agency service areas. At the individual level, we coded nearly 14,000 individual rights holders for race. The results were not surprising. At every level, the people who make decisions about California's water are more white and more male than the population of California. At the local agency level, boards of directors are 86% White and 79% male. At the individual level, 91% of small named water rights holders have last names that code as White.

Why Seasonal Prediction of California Winter Precipitation is Challenging

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 7th, 2022

Despite an urgent demand for reliable seasonal prediction of precipitation in California (CA) due to the recent recurrent and severe drought conditions, our predictive sk

Despite an urgent demand for reliable seasonal prediction of precipitation in California (CA) due to the recent recurrent and severe drought conditions, our predictive skill for CA winter precipitation remains limited. October hindcasts by the coupled dynamical models typically show a correlation skill of about 0.3 for CA winter (November–March) precipitation. In this study, an attempt is made to understand the underlying processes that limit seasonal prediction skill for CA winter precipitation. It is found that only about 25% of interannual variability of CA winter precipitation can be attributed to influences by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Instead, the year-to-year CA winter precipitation variability is primarily due to circulation anomalies independent from ENSO, featuring a circulation center over the west coast United States as a portion of a short Rossby wave train pattern over the North Pacific. Analyses suggest that dynamical models show nearly no skill in predicting these ENSO-independent circulation anomalies, thus leading to limited predictive skill for CA winter precipitation. Low predictability of these ENSO-independent circulation anomalies is further demonstrated by a large ensemble of atmospheric-only climate model simulations. While low predictability of the ENSO-independent circulation anomalies could be due to chaotic internal atmospheric processes over the mid- to high latitudes, possible underexploited predictability sources for CA precipitation in models are also discussed. This study pinpoints an urgent need for improved understanding of the formation mechanisms of ENSO-independent circulation anomalies over the U.S. West Coast for a breakthrough in seasonal prediction of CA winter precipitation.

Widespread and increased drilling of wells into fossil aquifers in the USA

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 19th, 2022

Most stored groundwater is ‘fossil’ in its age, having been under the ground for more than ~12 thousand years. Mapping where wells tap fossil aquifers is relevant for

Most stored groundwater is ‘fossil’ in its age, having been under the ground for more than ~12 thousand years. Mapping where wells tap fossil aquifers is relevant for water quality and quantity management. Nevertheless, the prevalence of wells that tap fossil aquifers is not known. Here we show that wells that are sufficiently deep to tap fossil aquifers are widespread, though they remain outnumbered by shallower wells in most areas. Moreover, the proportion of newly drilled wells that are deep enough to tap fossil aquifers has increased over recent decades. However, this widespread and increased drilling of wells into fossil aquifers is not necessarily associated with groundwater depletion, emphasizing that the presence of fossil groundwater does not necessarily indicate a non-renewable water supply. Our results highlight the importance of safeguarding fossil groundwater quality and quantity to meet present and future water demands.

Widespread Increase in Atmospheric River Frequency and Impacts Over the 20th Century

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 11th, 2025

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow regions of atmospheric moisture transport that provide water resources to many regions, but can also cause hazards such as extre

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow regions of atmospheric moisture transport that provide water resources to many regions, but can also cause hazards such as extreme rainfall and moist heatwaves. Despite their importance, there is uncertainty about how the frequency and impacts of ARs may be changing with time. Our study extends the global record of AR activity back to 1940. We find that the frequency of ARs has increased broadly across the midlatitude regions, rather than shifting polewards as observed in recent decades. This increase in AR frequency leads to more rain and snow associated with these features in both the mid‐ and high‐latitudes. We also find that there is an increase in humid heatwaves associated with ARs over the same period

Winter melt trends portend widespread declines in snow water resources

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 5th, 2021

In many mountainous regions, winter precipitation accumulates as snow that melts in the spring and summer, which provides water to one billion people globally. Climate wa

In many mountainous regions, winter precipitation accumulates as snow that melts in the spring and summer, which provides water to one billion people globally. Climate warming and earlier snowmelt compromise this natural water storage. Although snowpack trend analyses commonly focus on the snow water equivalent (SWE), we propose that trends in the accumulation season snowmelt serve as a critical indicator of hydrological change. Here we compare long-term changes in the snowmelt and SWE from snow monitoring stations in western North America and find 34% of stations exhibit increasing winter snowmelt trends (P < 0.05), a factor of three larger than the 11% showing SWE declines (P < 0.05). Snowmelt trends are highly sensitive to temperature and an underlying warming signal, whereas SWE trends are more sensitive to precipitation variability. Thus, continental-scale snow water resources are in steeper decline than inferred from SWE trends alone. More winter snowmelt will complicate future water resource planning and management.

Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | August 12th, 2022

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, result- ing in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.

Wright et al v. Goleta Water District

Superior Court of California, County of Santa Barbara | November 17th, 1989

Yuba Subbasins Water Management Plan: A Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Yuba Water Agency | December 27th, 2019