Twenty-first Annual Report of the Mojave Basin Area Watermaster

Mojave Basin Area Watermaster | May 1st, 2015

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 14th, 2022

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effect

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate-model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought-/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional digital flow models of the Salinas Valley ground-water basin, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | November 16th, 1978

The Salinas Valley is a topographic and ground-water basin in central coastal California. The ground-water basin extends from Monterey Bay south­eastward along the Salin

The Salinas Valley is a topographic and ground-water basin in central coastal California. The ground-water basin extends from Monterey Bay south­eastward along the Salinas River to San Arda, a distance of 70 miles, and has a maximum thickness of 2,000 feet. Annual recharge to the ground-water basin, which is derived mostly from the Salinas River, is about 290,000 acre­feet. Annual discharge, which is mostly from pumpage but also includes the consumptive use of ground water by riparian vegetation along the Salinas River, is about 507,000 acre-feet. About 45 percent of the pumpage, or 217,000 acre-feet of water annually, returns to the ground-water system. A group of interacting hydrologic models was developed for the Salinas Valley. These models include the small-stream model, river model, two­dimensional ground-water model, and three-dimensional ground-water model. The small-stream model simulates ground-water recharge from small streams that are tributary to the Salinas River. The river model simulates ground­water recharge from and surface-water discharge in the Salinas River. The two-dimensional and three-dimensional ground-water models simulate hydraulic head in the ground-water basin. The ground-water models were calibrated by comparing water level com­puted by the models to the corresponding measured water level for both steady-state and transient-state simulations. For the steady-state simulation, which was used to calibrate transmissivity for the two-dimensional model and hydraulic conductivity for the three-dimensional model, the median deviation of the model-generated water level from measured water level was 6 and 5 feet for the two-dimensional and three-dimensional models, respectively. For the transient-state simulation, which was used to calibrate storage coefficient for the two-dimensional model and specific storage for the three-dimensional model, the median deviation of the model-generated water level (at the end of a 3-year calibration period) from measured water level was 6 feet for both models.

U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, Chapter A

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 15th, 2025

This is one chapter in a multichapter report that assesses water availability in the United States for water years 2010–20. This work was conducted as part of the fulfi

This is one chapter in a multichapter report that assesses water availability in the United States for water years 2010–20. This work was conducted as part of the fulfillment of the mandates of Subtitle F of the Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), also known as the SECURE Water Act. As such, this work examines the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality in surface water and groundwater, as related to human and ecosystem needs and as affected by human and natural influences. Chapter A (this chapter) introduces the National Integrated Water Availability Assessment and provides important background and definitions for how the report characterizes water availability and its components. Chapter A also presents the key findings of Chapters B–F and thus acts as a summary of the entire report. Chapter B (Gorski and others, 2025) is a national assessment of water supply, which is the quantity of water supplied through climatic inputs. Chapter C (Erickson and others, 2025) is a national assessment of water quality, which is the chemical and physical characteristics of water. Chapter D (Medalie and others, 2025) assesses water use including withdrawals and consumptive use in the conterminous United States. Chapter E (Scholl and others, 2025) presents an analysis of factors affecting future water availability under changing climate conditions. The National Integrated Water Availability Assessment culminates with Chapter F (Stets and others, 2025a), which is an integrated assessment of water availability that considers the amount and quality of water coupled with the suitability of that water for specific uses. Together, these six chapters constitute the National Integrated Water Availability Assessment for water years 2010–20.

UN-Water Analytical Brief on Unconventional Water Resources

United Nations (UN) | June 5th, 2020

Increasing water scarcity is recognized as a key challenge to sustainable development and major cause of conflict, social unrest and changes to traditional migration rout

Increasing water scarcity is recognized as a key challenge to sustainable development and major cause of conflict, social unrest and changes to traditional migration routes and new migration patterns. At the same time water is increasingly considered as an instrument for international cooperation to support food production, livelihoods, ecosystems, climate change adaption, and sustainable development. As water scarcity is set to continue and intensify in dry areas, the world at large is in danger of leaving the water scarcity challenge to future generations who will be confronted with the consequences of today’s practices. Thus, water-scarce areas must sustainably access and utilize every available option for water resources in order to minimize the pressure that continues to grow. Conventional water provisioning approaches relying on snowfall, rainfall and river runoff are not enough to meet growing freshwater demand in water-scarce areas. Considering the water-related sustainable development challenges in arid regions, unconventional water resources are an emerging opportunity to narrow the water demand-supply gap. There are fragmented, but growing, examples of using unconventional water resources across the world to boost water supplies to address water scarcity.

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 10th, 2021

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

Understanding End-of-Century Snowpack Changes Over California’s Sierra Nevada

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2019

Understanding the Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 13th, 2023

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 18th, 2023

Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 25th, 2025

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergon

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented