Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 7th, 2022

Extreme wildfires extensively impact human health and the environment. Increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has led to a chronic increase in wildfire area in the west

Extreme wildfires extensively impact human health and the environment. Increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has led to a chronic increase in wildfire area in the western United States, yet some regions have been more affected than others. Here we show that for the same increase in VPD, burned area increases more in regions where vegetation moisture shows greater sensitivity to water limitation (plant-water sensitivity; R2 = 0.71). This has led to rapid increases in human exposure to wildfire risk, both because the population living in areas with high plant-water sensitivity grew 50% faster during 1990–2010 than in other wildland–urban interfaces and because VPD has risen most rapidly in these vulnerable areas. As plant-water sensitivity is strongly linked to wildfire vulnerability, accounting for ecophysiological controls should improve wildfire forecasts. If recent trends in VPD and demographic shifts continue, human wildfire risk will probably continue to increase.

Predicting Streamflow Elasticity Based on Percolation Theory and Ecological Optimality

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 20th, 2023

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 28th, 2015

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated mi

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satel- lite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.

Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 6th, 2018

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville Dam crisis in California. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how such rain-on-snow (ROS) flood risk may respond to climate change. Here, daily ROS events with flood-generating potential are simulated over western North America for a historical (2000–2013) and future (forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) period with the Weather Research and Forecasting model; 4 km resolution allows the basin-scale ROS flood risk to be assessed. In the warmer climate, we show that ROS becomes less frequent at lower elevations due to snowpack declines, particularly in warmer areas (for example, the Pacific maritime region). By contrast, at higher elevations where seasonal snowcover persists, ROS becomes more frequent due to a shift from snowfall to rain. Accordingly, the water available for runoff increases for 55% of western North American river basins, with corresponding increases in flood risk of 20–200%, the greatest changes of which are projected for the Sierra Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Thus, flood control and water resource planning must consider ROS to fully quantify changes in flood risk with anthropogenic warming.

Rapid vegetation redistribution in Southern California during the early 2000s drought

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 31st, 2012

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Veg

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Vegetation growing near its low-elevation range limit may prove especially vulnerable to mortality and decline. We investigated the altitudinal pattern of conifer mortality that occurred from 2002 to 2004 in Southern California’s San Jacinto Mountains. We found that conifer mortality was focused in the lower portion of the midmontane conifer range, which drove the midmontane conifer distribution upslope. We investigated past reports of conifer mortality in Southern California by searching historical newspaper accounts. We found evidence of previous episodes of conifer mortality that coincided with past droughts, and which may have caused vegetation redistribution in the past. We interpret the early2000s mortality and associated vegetation redistribution as a response to natural decadal tocentennial climate variability. Moreover, we hypothesize this response mode will dominatethe early impact of global climate change on semi-arid forest, which, in turn, may complicate efforts to distinguish between ecological changes attributable to natural climate variability and those attributable to global climate change.

Recent decreases in snow water storage in western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 22nd, 2023

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Ind

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Index (SSI), representing the temporal phase difference between daily precipitation and surface water inputs—sum of rainfall and snowmelt into terrestrial systems—weighted by relative magnitudes. Different from snow water equivalent or snow fraction, the SSI represents the degree to which the snowpack delays the timing and magnitude of surface water inputs relative to precipitation, a fundamental component of how snow water storage influences the hydrologic cycle. In western North America, annual SSI has decreased (p 

Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 7th, 2019

Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms c

Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms causing mortality are not fully understood and empirical relations between climatology and mortality are subject to change. Here, we show that the temporal loss of resilience, a phenomenon often detected as a system approaches a tipping point, can be used as an early warning signal (EWS) to predict the likelihood of forest mortality directly from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. We tested the proposed approach on data from Californian forests and found that the EWS can often be detected before reduced greenness, between 6 to 19 months before mortality. The EWS shows a species-specific relation with mortality, and is able to capture its spatio-temporal variations. These findings highlight the potential for such an EWS to predict forest mortality in the near-term.

Restoration pulse flows from a California dam temporarily increase drifting invertebrate biomass concentration

Journal of Environmental Management (Elsevier) | November 9th, 2022

The decline of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations over the last few decades has stimulated major restoration efforts across the Pacific Northwest to improve t

The decline of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations over the last few decades has stimulated major restoration efforts across the Pacific Northwest to improve the status of these iconic fishes. The leading factors contributing to the decline of Pacific salmon include watershed degradation and water diversions, which result in part from widespread dam construction across the United States (Moyle, 1994). Early river restoration actions primarily focused on physical habitat alterations (e.g., in-stream habitat improvement, fish passage; Barinaga, 1996; Bernhardt et al., 2005), while more recent work has centered around restoring natural processes (Johnson et al., 2019). Since socioeconomic and political complications are typically too great for dam removal projects to be feasible, reconciliation ecology, which encourages the accommodation of both human and wildlife needs in a human-dominated landscape, can be a more effective approach to restoration (Rosenzweig, 2003; Moyle et al., 2017). Rather than the elusive goal of returning rivers to a natural flow regime, the aim can be to attain functional environmental flows to support beneficial flow-ecology relationships (Poff et al., 2017). Dams can be operated to reduce some of their detrimental effects by releasing flows that improve downstream habitat through the preservation of key hydrologic signals upon which biophysical processes and native biological communities depend (Yarnell et al., 2020). Four functional flow components were identified for Mediterranean montane streams: wet-season initiation flows, peak magnitude flows, spring recession flows, and dry-season low flows; see Yarnell et al. (2015) for a description about the importance of each key functional component. Several studies have identified the need to further assess linkages between streamflow, invertebrate prey availability, and drift-foraging dynamics for consideration in future restoration plans for juvenile salmonids (Weber et al., 2014; Naman et al., 2016; Lusardi et al., 2018). The focus of this study is to assess the impact of dam-release flows imitating one of those functional flow components, peak magnitude flows, on invertebrate drift as a food resource for juvenile salmonids.

Review of CDFW Recommendations for the 2022 Readoption of Drought Emergency Regulations on the Scott River and Recommendations for Future Management During Extreme Drought Conditions

Siskiyou Farm Bureau | August 31st, 2022

Reviving Central Valley Rivers

CALFED | June 1st, 2003