Gone. Decades of greed, neglect, corruption, and bad politics led to last year’s Paradise fire, the worst in California history. It should never have happened. It will happen again.

California Sunday Magazine | July 31st, 2019

By the time I made it to Paradise, the deadliest wildfire in California history was four months past, and the burned-out ridge between the two river canyons was pouring

By the time I made it to Paradise, the deadliest wildfire in California history was four months past, and the burned-out ridge between the two river canyons was pouring rain. I was riding the Skyway, the road from Chico to Paradise, flatland to hilltop, trying to understand what forces had conspired last November to create a blaze of such anger that it took the lives of 85 people and destroyed 19,000 structures. I had puzzled out enough disasters to know that tragedy was a force of intricate construction. It wasn’t one detached act that materialized as tragedy but myriad smaller acts — some incidental, some accidental, others malevolent — that lined up in perfect continuity. Had one circumstance in the sequence lost its footing, a cosmic stumble, the next circumstance would have never hitched on, and tragedy would have been averted.

Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | February 22nd, 2022

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addres

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire–climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

How Much Snow?

Scientific American | March 1st, 1939

Last winter, at 682 different locations in the Rockies and high Sierras, more than 30,000 exact measurements of snow depth and water content were taken, in order to e

Last winter, at 682 different locations in the Rockies and high Sierras, more than 30,000 exact measurements of snow depth and water content were taken, in order to estimate how much water the mountain snowfields would supply in the run-off during summer months. To make this survey cost more than $100,000. On it was predicated the expenditure, and saving, of millions. While the science of surveying snow is still in its infancy, its extent and importance are increasing rapidly. Ridiculed at first, in the last few years it has taken on world-wide aspects. To grasp its significance in our western states, picture a series of snow-covered mountain ranges that by their streams make life possible in dry intervening valleys. Abundant snow means abundant water. Abundant water means power, and cheap electricity. More important still, it means abundant crops. Dearth of snowfall in the mountains means dry river beds in August, machinery standing idle, thirsty cattle, and dying plants.

Hydroclimate Variability in Snow-fed River Systems

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 25th, 2019

Snow-fed river system communities are highly sensitive to climate change because the majority of their water supply is derived from snow. A warmer climate shift

Snow-fed river system communities are highly sensitive to climate change because the majority of their water supply is derived from snow. A warmer climate shifts precipitation phase from snow to rain, altering snowpack dynamics, shifting peak streamflow timing, reducing groundwater recharge, and increasing winter and spring flooding. Warmer spring and summer temperatures further compound these “snow droughts” by increasing evapotranspiration rates and irrigation water demand. This presents critical challenges in managing seasonal water supply and demand engineered for stationary climate patterns.

Importance of subsurface water for hydrological response during storms in a post-wildfire bedrock landscape

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 29th, 2023

Improving the Health of California’s Headwater Forests

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | September 18th, 2017

California’s headwater forests are not thriving under current management practices, and changes are needed to make them more resilient to periodic drought and long-term

California’s headwater forests are not thriving under current management practices, and changes are needed to make them more resilient to periodic drought and long-term climate change. More active management of these lands is needed to improve forest health, reduce the risk of major wildfires and pest infestations, and maintain the flow of benefits provided by this critical natural infrastructure. Decades of fire suppression, an emphasis on short-term management priorities, weather extremes, and a warming climate have set the stage for the decline in forest resilience. Two-thirds of the state’s surface water supply originates in these mountainous forests. California stands to lose timber production, wildlife habitat, recreational opportunities, and water supply if this vital natural infrastructure continues to decline. Management options exist—prescribed fire, managed wildfire, mechanical thinning, and forest pest treatments—that can help rebuild resilience in these forests and prepare them for a challenging future.

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

PLOS | April 28th, 2016

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the fa

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Increasing elevation of fire in the Sierra Nevada and implications for forest change

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | July 23rd, 2015

Fire in high‐elevation forest ecosystems can have severe impacts on forest structure, function and biodiversity. Using a 105‐year data set, we found increasing elevat

Fire in high‐elevation forest ecosystems can have severe impacts on forest structure, function and biodiversity. Using a 105‐year data set, we found increasing elevation extent of fires in the Sierra Nevada, and pose five hypotheses to explain this pattern. Beyond the recognized pattern of increasing fire frequency in the Sierra Nevada since the late 20th century, we find that the upper elevation extent of those fires has also been increasing. Factors such as fire season climate and fuel build up are recognized potential drivers of changes in fire regimes. Patterns of warming climate and increasing stand density are consistent with both the direction and magnitude of increasing elevation of wildfire. Reduction in high elevation wildfire suppression and increasing ignition frequencies may also contribute to the observed pattern. Historical biases in fire reporting are recognized, but not likely to explain the observed patterns. The four plausible mechanistic hypotheses (changes in fire management, climate, fuels, ignitions) are not mutually exclusive, and likely have synergistic interactions that may explain the observed changes. Irrespective of mechanism, the observed pattern of increasing occurrence of fire in these subalpine forests may have significant impacts on their resilience to changing climatic conditions.

Independent Forensic Team Report: Oroville Dam Spillway Incident

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 5th, 2018

The Oroville Dam spillway incident was caused by a long-term systemic failure of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), regulatory, and general i

The Oroville Dam spillway incident was caused by a long-term systemic failure of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), regulatory, and general industry practices to recognize and address inherent spillway design and construction weaknesses, poor bedrock quality, and deteriorated service spillway chute conditions. The incident cannot reasonably be “blamed” mainly on any one individual, group, or organization. During service spillway operation on February 7, 2017, water injection through both cracks and joints in the chute slab resulted in uplift forces beneath the slab that exceeded the uplift capacity and structural strength of the slab, at a location along the steep section of the chute . The uplifted slab section exposed the underlying poor quality foundation rock at that location to unexpected severe erosion, resulting in removal of additional slab sections and more erosion . Responding to the damage to the service spillway chute necessitated difficult risk tradeoffs while the lake continued to rise. The resulting decisions, made without a full understanding of relative uncertainties and consequences, allowed the reservoir level to rise above the emergency spillway weir for the first time in the project’s history, leading to severe and rapid erosion downstream of the weir and, ultimately, the evacuation order. . . . There were many opportunities to intervene and prevent the incident , but the overall system of interconnected factors operated in a way that these opportunities were missed. Numerous human , organizational, and industry factors led to the physical factors not being recognized and properly addressed, and to the decision-making during the incident.

Inter-Basin Transfers Extend the Benefits of Water From Forests to Population Centers Across the Conterminous U.S.

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 12th, 2022

Clean water from forests is commonly used to supply drinking water to communities both within and outside basin boundaries through inter-basin transfers (IBTs). Here, we

Clean water from forests is commonly used to supply drinking water to communities both within and outside basin boundaries through inter-basin transfers (IBTs). Here, we modified the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model to provide estimates of mean water yield and the proportion of mean flow originating on forested lands at the 12-Digit Hydrologic Unit Code scale across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We accounted for the benefits of forests for drinking water supply and receiving populations through IBTs by incorporating a new IBT database, surface intake location information for public drinking water systems, and modeled water yield from forests. We compiled the new database of 594 IBTs ranging from 0.01 million m3 yr−1 to 8,900 million m3 yr−1, for a total transferred volume of 116,894 million m3 yr−1. According to our results, forested lands comprised 28.7% of the total land area across CONUS, but contributed 46% of the total surface water yield. Approximately 125.5 million people derived more than 10% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands, and 83.1 million people received more than 50% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands. Of those 83.1 million people receiving more than 50% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands, 19.4 million people obtained some (≥0.01%) of that water through IBTs. We conclude that accounting for IBTs is critical to accurately assess the contribution of forested watersheds for surface drinking water supply. Hydrologic models for assessment and decision making must include IBTs to fully account for the effects of climate change and human population dynamics on water resource availability at watershed to regional scales. Results from this study can aid water resource and forest managers in developing integrated watershed management plans at a time when climate change, population growth, and land use change threaten water supplies.