Postfire Sediment Mobilization and its Downstream Implications Across California, 1984–2021

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 27th, 2024

Predicting Streamflow Elasticity Based on Percolation Theory and Ecological Optimality

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 20th, 2023

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 28th, 2015

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated mi

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satel- lite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.

Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 6th, 2018

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville Dam crisis in California. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how such rain-on-snow (ROS) flood risk may respond to climate change. Here, daily ROS events with flood-generating potential are simulated over western North America for a historical (2000–2013) and future (forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) period with the Weather Research and Forecasting model; 4 km resolution allows the basin-scale ROS flood risk to be assessed. In the warmer climate, we show that ROS becomes less frequent at lower elevations due to snowpack declines, particularly in warmer areas (for example, the Pacific maritime region). By contrast, at higher elevations where seasonal snowcover persists, ROS becomes more frequent due to a shift from snowfall to rain. Accordingly, the water available for runoff increases for 55% of western North American river basins, with corresponding increases in flood risk of 20–200%, the greatest changes of which are projected for the Sierra Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Thus, flood control and water resource planning must consider ROS to fully quantify changes in flood risk with anthropogenic warming.

Quantifying Aspect-Dependent Snowpack Response to High-Elevation Wildfire in the Southern Rocky Mountains

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2024

Quantifying Aspect-Dependent Snowpack Response to High-Elevation Wildfire in the Southern Rocky Mountains

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2024

Rapid vegetation redistribution in Southern California during the early 2000s drought

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 31st, 2012

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Veg

Climate change in semi-arid, midlatitude mountain environments is expected to shift the spatial patterns of temperature, water availability, and vegetation upslope. Vegetation growing near its low-elevation range limit may prove especially vulnerable to mortality and decline. We investigated the altitudinal pattern of conifer mortality that occurred from 2002 to 2004 in Southern California’s San Jacinto Mountains. We found that conifer mortality was focused in the lower portion of the midmontane conifer range, which drove the midmontane conifer distribution upslope. We investigated past reports of conifer mortality in Southern California by searching historical newspaper accounts. We found evidence of previous episodes of conifer mortality that coincided with past droughts, and which may have caused vegetation redistribution in the past. We interpret the early2000s mortality and associated vegetation redistribution as a response to natural decadal tocentennial climate variability. Moreover, we hypothesize this response mode will dominatethe early impact of global climate change on semi-arid forest, which, in turn, may complicate efforts to distinguish between ecological changes attributable to natural climate variability and those attributable to global climate change.

Recent decreases in snow water storage in western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 22nd, 2023

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Ind

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Index (SSI), representing the temporal phase difference between daily precipitation and surface water inputs—sum of rainfall and snowmelt into terrestrial systems—weighted by relative magnitudes. Different from snow water equivalent or snow fraction, the SSI represents the degree to which the snowpack delays the timing and magnitude of surface water inputs relative to precipitation, a fundamental component of how snow water storage influences the hydrologic cycle. In western North America, annual SSI has decreased (p 

Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 7th, 2019

Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms c

Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms causing mortality are not fully understood and empirical relations between climatology and mortality are subject to change. Here, we show that the temporal loss of resilience, a phenomenon often detected as a system approaches a tipping point, can be used as an early warning signal (EWS) to predict the likelihood of forest mortality directly from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. We tested the proposed approach on data from Californian forests and found that the EWS can often be detected before reduced greenness, between 6 to 19 months before mortality. The EWS shows a species-specific relation with mortality, and is able to capture its spatio-temporal variations. These findings highlight the potential for such an EWS to predict forest mortality in the near-term.

Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 30th, 2013

Climatologies of Rocky Mountain snowpack are shown to be seasonally and regionally complex, with Pacific decadal variability positively reinforcing the anthropogenic warm

Climatologies of Rocky Mountain snowpack are shown to be seasonally and regionally complex, with Pacific decadal variability positively reinforcing the anthropogenic warming trend.