On the Sources of Water Supply Forecast Error in Western Colorado

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 1st, 2023

Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 20th, 2023

Petition For Rulemaking to Set Minimum Flows on the Shasta River

Mount Shasta Bioregional Ecology Center | January 20th, 2024

Decades of scientific inquiry make clear that adequate quality and quantity of flows are needed to prevent remaining fish populations from further decline. Yet this scien

Decades of scientific inquiry make clear that adequate quality and quantity of flows are needed to prevent remaining fish populations from further decline. Yet this science is not self-executing; effective government intervention is necessary to prevent the extirpation of salmonids in the Shasta. This type of government action is at the core of the Public Trust Doctrine, which requires the government to act as a trustee over public trust resources, and to the extent feasible, step in to protect these resources from over-allocation and over-use.

Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 7th, 2022

Extreme wildfires extensively impact human health and the environment. Increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has led to a chronic increase in wildfire area in the west

Extreme wildfires extensively impact human health and the environment. Increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has led to a chronic increase in wildfire area in the western United States, yet some regions have been more affected than others. Here we show that for the same increase in VPD, burned area increases more in regions where vegetation moisture shows greater sensitivity to water limitation (plant-water sensitivity; R2 = 0.71). This has led to rapid increases in human exposure to wildfire risk, both because the population living in areas with high plant-water sensitivity grew 50% faster during 1990–2010 than in other wildland–urban interfaces and because VPD has risen most rapidly in these vulnerable areas. As plant-water sensitivity is strongly linked to wildfire vulnerability, accounting for ecophysiological controls should improve wildfire forecasts. If recent trends in VPD and demographic shifts continue, human wildfire risk will probably continue to increase.

Post Carr Fire bioassessment data report, Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, Shasta County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | November 12th, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, analyzed water and sediment chemistry, benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages, fis

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, analyzed water and sediment chemistry, benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages, fish and amphibian assemblages, fish and invertebrate tissues, instream habitat characteristics, and sediment heterogeneity at 10 stream sites within Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, Shasta County, California, during August 2020, 2 years after the Carr Fire. The post-Carr Fire data were compared to available pre-Carr Fire data to help determine if there have been wildfire-induced changes in the aquatic communities within the Whiskeytown National Recreational Area. Benthic sediment results for metals of biological concern were compared with consensus-based probable effect concentrations from previously published sediment-quality guidelines. Results from 2020 sampling indicated exceedances of these guidelines at one site for cadmium, chromium, copper, and zinc; there were exceedances of the guidelines at three sites for nickel. Concentrations of metals of biological concern in fish and invertebrate tissue samples generally varied among sites and years, with no pattern with specific reference to the Carr Fire. Average zinc and lead concentrations in composite invertebrate samples were slightly higher in 2020 than in previous years, and arsenic levels were lower in 2020 for invertebrate and fish tissues. Post-Carr Fire stream-habitat and sediment-size characterization values did not change substantially when compared to pre-Carr Fire values, or had high variation among all sites and years. Fish and amphibian inventories demonstrated that fewer total fish and amphibians were collected post-Carr Fire, but higher numbers of native Sacramento Sucker (Catostomus occidentalis) and Sacramento Pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus grandis) were collected than in previous years. The combined histories of mining and frequent wildfires in the area pose an increased risk for metal contamination throughout the aquatic system. Continued monitoring for multilevel trophic effects of contaminants can provide information about the overall health of the Whiskeytown National Recreation Area and surrounding region.

Postfire Sediment Mobilization and its Downstream Implications Across California, 1984–2021

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 27th, 2024

Predicting Streamflow Elasticity Based on Percolation Theory and Ecological Optimality

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 20th, 2023

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 28th, 2015

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated mi

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satel- lite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.

Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 6th, 2018

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville Dam crisis in California. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how such rain-on-snow (ROS) flood risk may respond to climate change. Here, daily ROS events with flood-generating potential are simulated over western North America for a historical (2000–2013) and future (forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) period with the Weather Research and Forecasting model; 4 km resolution allows the basin-scale ROS flood risk to be assessed. In the warmer climate, we show that ROS becomes less frequent at lower elevations due to snowpack declines, particularly in warmer areas (for example, the Pacific maritime region). By contrast, at higher elevations where seasonal snowcover persists, ROS becomes more frequent due to a shift from snowfall to rain. Accordingly, the water available for runoff increases for 55% of western North American river basins, with corresponding increases in flood risk of 20–200%, the greatest changes of which are projected for the Sierra Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Thus, flood control and water resource planning must consider ROS to fully quantify changes in flood risk with anthropogenic warming.

Quantifying Aspect-Dependent Snowpack Response to High-Elevation Wildfire in the Southern Rocky Mountains

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2024