Debris flow occurrence under changing climate and wildfire regimes: A southern California perspective

Geomorphology (Elsevier) | December 2nd, 2022

In southern California, wildfire incidents are increasing in frequency and magnitude. There is a great deal of research predicting the impact of climate change on large s

In southern California, wildfire incidents are increasing in frequency and magnitude. There is a great deal of research predicting the impact of climate change on large scale fire regimes. These impacts, now the new normal, include increases in future fire incidents and burn severities. Yet predictive studies on how ecosystems respond to changing fire regimes are lacking. Identifying trends in post-fire erosion patterns, such as post-fire debris flows, is critical for increasing human resiliency and adaptation to changing weather patterns and eventual long-term climate change. The relative historical abundance of post-fire debris flows in southern California presents this concern: will worsening wildfire regimes result in more post-fire debris flows? Our research addresses this concern by utilizing a descriptive approach to analyze post-fire debris flows in southern California from 2001 to 2018 to elucidate possible trends. We found that 84 % of debris flows originate from watersheds with soils burnt at moderate soil burn severity. We found that debris flow occurrence is more reliant on the percent coverage of a soil burn severity classification than its areal extent. Further, larger fires also tended to produce more debris flows and most (73 %) debris flow watersheds occurred in predominantly bedrock areas. Our research suggests that the number of post-fire runoff-generated debris flows in the region will increase if fires continue to increase in size, occur on slopes of at least 20°, burn south-facing watersheds with bedrock of igneous or sedimentary origin to at least a moderate severity, and peak rainfall intensity return intervals do not change. These findings highlight the interconnectivity between natural erosive processes, wildfires, humans, and climate change.

Demonstration of a Watershed Approach to Wetland Restoration Planning for Load Reductions: A Pilot Demonstration Project Using GreenPlan-IT in the Santa Rosa Plain, Sonoma County, California

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | December 30th, 2017

This summary memorandum presents technical recommendations to the 401 Certification and Waste Discharge Program (401 Program) of the State Water Resources Control Board (

This summary memorandum presents technical recommendations to the 401 Certification and Waste Discharge Program (401 Program) of the State Water Resources Control Board (State Board) for a coherent, scientifically sound, repeatable, watershed approach to wetland restoration site evaluation, compliance monitoring and assessment, and Tracking. The recommendations are drawn from the previous four memoranda produced for the Pilot Demonstration Project (Project) that address the following subjects: project work plan and information flow diagram; scientific literature review; landscape scenario planning (to map and prioritize restoration opportunities); and a framework for a watershed-approach to evaluate and report the capacity of a wetland restoration site to protect wetland beneficial uses. This Project focused on a sub-watershed of the Santa Rosa Plain, in Sonoma County, California. The area was chosen for the Project for three reasons: (1) it is integral to an existing nutrient TMDL and therefore is supported relatively well with hydrological and nutrient data; (2) the historical and existing wetlands and streams of the area were mapped recently in sufficient detail to inform landscape planning; and (3) implementation of the TMDL will involve wetland restoration to reduce downstream nutrient loads, and therefore the Project may help implement the TMDL. The primary overall purpose of this Project was to explore how numerical simulation and statistical modeling could be combined with existing wetland assessment and reporting tools to create a coherent, watershed-based approach to wetland beneficial use protection. Any relevance to the existing nutrient TMDL for the demonstration area is an intentional, but secondary benefit of this Project. Contents: Wetland Beneficial Use Protection: Pilot Demonstration Project A Synthesis of Literature on Wetland Assimilation Capacities, Models, and Pollutant Loads Simulating Wetland Assimilation Capacity in the Lower Santa Rosa Creek Watershed Pilot Demonstration Area Using the HSPF Model Demonstration of a Watershed Approach To Wetland Restoration Planning Using GreenPlan-IT

Department of the Interior Nature-Based Solutions Roadmap

Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability (Duke University) | December 1st, 2023

Development of a Groundwater-Simulation Model in the Los Angeles Coastal Plain, Los Angeles County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | September 28th, 2021

The Los Angeles Coastal Plain (LACP) covers about 580 square miles and is the largest coastal plain of semiarid southern California. The LACP is heavily developed with mo

The Los Angeles Coastal Plain (LACP) covers about 580 square miles and is the largest coastal plain of semiarid southern California. The LACP is heavily developed with mostly residential, commercial, and industrial land uses that rely heavily on groundwater for water supply. In 2010, the LACP was home to about 14 percent of California’s population, or about 5.4 million residents. The LACP is also a major commercial and industrial hub with industries including manufacturing, aerospace, entertainment, and tourism. There has been a heavy reliance on groundwater from the LACP for many years. An average of 305,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of groundwater was used annually from the LACP from 1971 to 2015. The need to replenish the groundwater basins within the LACP was recognized as far back as the 1930s, when spreading grounds were first used to replenish groundwater basins and store water underground during times of water surplus to meet demands in times of shortage. Seawater intrusion resulting from freshwater pumping was first observed in the 1940s. As a result, injection of imported water through wells at what is now the West Coast Basin Barrier Project began on an experimental basis in 1951. Managed aquifer recharge from the spreading grounds and barrier wells is now a substantial component of the LACP’s groundwater supply. The average annual recharge from water spreading from 1971 to 2015 was about 120,000 acre-ft/yr, and the average annual injection into the barrier wells was about 33,000 acre-ft/yr. Other inflows include areal recharge, underflow from San Gabriel and San Fernando Valleys, and onshore flow from the ocean. The average annual recharge from these sources was 100,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) from 1971 to 2015. Additionally, cross-boundary flow from Orange County into the western Orange County subareas of the LACP was simulated as 48,000 acre-ft from 1971 to 2015. This study, conducted in cooperation with the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRD), involved an assessment of the historical and present status of groundwater resources in the LACP and the development of tools to better understand the groundwater system. These efforts were built upon results from previous studies and incorporate new information and developments in modeling capabilities to provide a more detailed analysis of the aquifer systems. This study includes a comprehensive compilation of geologic and hydrologic data (Chapter A), development of a chronostratigraphic model that provides a detailed description of the LACP aquifer systems (Chapter B), characterization of the groundwater hydrology of the LACP, including a down-hole analysis of grain size using lithologic and geophysical logs (Chapter C), and development and application of the Los Angeles Coastal Plain Groundwater-flow Model (LACPGM) to simulate past groundwater conditions, estimate groundwater-budget components and flow paths, and approximate future groundwater conditions under different scenarios (Chapter D).

Diversifying Colorado’s Water Portfolio: The Potential for Stormwater Capture and Use to Contribute to a Water Resilient Future

Pacific Institute | October 23rd, 2024

The 2023 Colorado Water Plan estimates that by 2050 there will be a municipal and industrial water supply gap of between 250,000 and 750,000 acre-feet per year. “Divers

The 2023 Colorado Water Plan estimates that by 2050 there will be a municipal and industrial water supply gap of between 250,000 and 750,000 acre-feet per year. “Diversifying Colorado’s Water Portfolio: The Potential for Stormwater Capture and Use to Contribute to a Water Resilient Future” seeks to advance understanding of the extent to which rainwater harvesting and stormwater capture in urban areas can help fill this gap.

Downstream Effects of Stormwater Management Basins

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | June 1st, 1979

Urbanization decreases the natural storage of a watershed, which changes the timing characteristics of the runoff. Stormwater management (SWM) basins are an attempt to pu

Urbanization decreases the natural storage of a watershed, which changes the timing characteristics of the runoff. Stormwater management (SWM) basins are an attempt to put the storage lost through development back into the runoff process. While SWM basins provide the proper volume of storage, they fail to return the timing characteristics to those that existed prior to development. The changes in storage and timing characteristics may have adverse effects on flow rates and bedload transport in downstream channel reaches. A study of a 2.12-sq mile watershed in Montgomery County, Md., showed that a SWM basin increased both peak flows and bedload transport rates in the channel downstream from the facility. This results from both the change in timing characteristics and the increased duration of bankfull flow. These results indicate that SWM policies must require evaluation of SWM plans on a regional basis and not just using on-site control criteria. Also, methods that can evaluate storage and timing changes must be used in the design of SWM facilities.

Environment California, Inc. v. City of Los Angeles

Holmes, Athey, Cowan & Mermelstein LLP | July 23rd, 2024

Equity in Stormwater Investments: Measuring Community Engagement and Disadvantaged Community Benefits for Equitable Impact in the Safe Clean Water Program

Publisher not available | August 4th, 2022

The Safe, Clean Water Program (SCWP) reflects the will of the voters of Los Angeles County, who approved Measure W in 2018 by close to 70%. The ballot measure established

The Safe, Clean Water Program (SCWP) reflects the will of the voters of Los Angeles County, who approved Measure W in 2018 by close to 70%. The ballot measure established a perpetual parcel tax “to fund projects and programs to increase stormwater capture and reduce stormwater and urban runoff pollution” in Los Angeles County “to increase water supply, improve water quality, and, where appropriate, provide community enhancements such as the greening of schools, parks, and wetlands, and increased public access to rivers, lakes, and streams.” In an ordinance implementing the Safe Clean Water Program, the county Board of Supervisors included provisions to prioritize equity in implementation and affirmed an intention to address inequity in infrastructure in August 2021. Those provisions gave rise to this report, which provides advice drawn from research and stakeholder engagement to the Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) for measuring community engagement and Disadvantaged Community Benefits to better achieve the equitable impact sought by the SCWP. As part of a broader SCWP Metrics and Monitoring Study (MMS) commissioned by the LACFCD, we were charged with conducting research, consulting with stakeholders, and giving advice to the SCWP for metrics to measure community engagement and Disadvantaged Community Benefits.

Estimating Monetized Benefits of Groundwater Recharge from Stormwater Retention Practices

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) | February 4th, 2016

Stormwater impacts from development have been documented extensively in peer-reviewed literature and summarized in the National Research Council’s report titled Urban S

Stormwater impacts from development have been documented extensively in peer-reviewed literature and summarized in the National Research Council’s report titled Urban Stormwater Management in the United States (National Research Council, 2009). To address these impacts, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Water (OW) evaluated several potential scenarios for managing stormwater from new development and redevelopment using small stormwater retention practices. The objective of these practices is to reduce runoff volume to simulate pre-development hydrology and protect water quality. These practices are often designed to infiltrate the retained water, which can provide groundwater recharge to help maintain predevelopment groundwater levels. For the purposes of this study, infiltration was assumed, whereas in practice capture-and-use or other methods also may be applied. The purpose of the study is to inform valuation of groundwater recharge from stormwater retention in areas projected for new development and redevelopment. Retention practices can prevent the loss of natural recharge that may occur on a developed site without these practices. This study examined a simplified methodology for estimating recharge volume and used observed prices of water for monetary valuation. Groundwater recharge is just one benefit within the larger context of the costs and benefits of stormwater retention practices. The full range of potential benefits were not addressed in this study, but the full suite of benefits should be considered when comparing to an estimated cost of implementation. Costs of implementing retention practices in areas of new and redevelopment also were not addressed in this study. The estimates represent the groundwater recharge volume and value that would result if stormwater retention practices were implemented in areas within the contiguous U.S. not currently requiring stormwater retention. The stormwater retention practices were assumed to capture a specified depth of runoff, in the range of 0.5 to 2 inches (i.e. not large storm attenuation) with a goal of reducing runoff volumes to levels similar to those for pre-developed landscape conditions. This approach is commonly referred to as “green infrastructure” for stormwater management or low impact development (LID). While small storm retention that approximates predevelopment runoff could also be achieved with cisterns in those areas where infiltration is not desired or is not feasible, the option of cistern capture was not evaluated in this study. The timeframe selected for the purpose of the predictive study was the 20-year period of 2021 through 2040.

Evaluation of the Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Floods Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in Coastal Western U.S. Watersheds

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | May 27th, 2021

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month) is a critical lead time for proactive mitigation of flood disasters. The NOAA Climate Testbed Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a research-to-operations project with almost immediate availability of forecasts. It has produced a reforecast database that facilitates evaluation of flood forecasts at these subseasonal lead times. Here, we examine the SubX-driven forecast skill of AR-related flooding out to 4-week lead using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), with particular attention to the role of antecedent soil moisture (ASM), which modulates the relationship between meteorological and hydrological forecast skill. We study three watersheds along a transect of the U.S. West Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. We find that the SubX-driven flood forecast skill drops quickly after week 1, during which there is relatively high deterministic forecast skill. We find some probabilistic forecast skill relative to climatology as well as ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) in week 2, but minimal skill in weeks 3–4, especially for annual maximum floods, notwithstanding some probabilistic skill for smaller floods in week 3. Using ESP and reverse-ESP experiments to consider the relative influence of ASM and SubX reforecast skill, we find that ASM dominates probabilistic forecast skill only for small flood events at week 1, while SubX reforecast skill dominates for large flood events at all lead times.