Comment on “Short-lived pause in Central California subsidence after heavy winter precipitation of 2017” by K. D. Murray and R. B. Lohman

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | June 12th, 2019

In a study by Murray and Lohman (M&L), the authors suggest that remote sensing data are useful for monitoring land subsidence due to aquifer system compacti

In a study by Murray and Lohman (M&L), the authors suggest that remote sensing data are useful for monitoring land subsidence due to aquifer system compaction. We agree. To infer aquifer dynamics, we provide a more detailed and joint analysis of deformation and groundwater data. Investigating well data in the Tulare Basin, we find that groundwater levels stabilized before 2015 and show that M&L’s observed continued subsidence through July 2016 is likely caused by the delayed compaction of the aquitard. Our analysis suggests the observed 2017 transient uplift is not due to recharge of the aquifer system after heavy winter rainfall because it requires an unrealistic vertical hydraulic gradient nearly five orders of magnitude larger than that typical of Tulare Basin. We find that, regardless of the amount of rainfall, transient annual uplifts of ~3 cm occur in May to June. Using an elastic skeletal storage coefficient of 5 × 10−3, we link this ground uplift to annual groundwater level changes.

Curbing the Colorado

Scientific American | April 1st, 1922

Already, the electrical engineer has shown how the snows of the high Sierras can be transformed into energizing current distributable for hundreds of miles through a S

Already, the electrical engineer has shown how the snows of the high Sierras can be transformed into energizing current distributable for hundreds of miles through a State which i s notably deficient in deposits of power-producing coal. Similarly, this same technicist is busy planning ways by which the widely diversified flow of the second largest of our rivers, the Colorado, may be stabilized and utilized to operate a number of immense, hydroelectric stations. The Colorado River drains a watershed covering fully 250,000 square miles, and in the course of a twelvemonth its run-off  amounts to 16,000,000 acre-feet of water. The States affected by the movement of the Colorado are Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and California. Normally, the Colorado runs to extremes : in dry seasons it is low and its speed of travel comparatively sluggish, but when the melting snows and rains of the wet months pour their fullness into the far-flung basin the river becomes a raging, torrential stream capable of doing an enormous amount of damage. Uncontrolled, this great waterway is a continual menace to the lives and the property of dwellers in the Imperial Valley and in the adjacent lands, lying below the level of the sea and situated both in the United States and in Mexico.

Dams within Jurisdiction of the State of California

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 31st, 2023

Declining mountain snowpack in western North America

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 3rd, 2005

Mountain snowpack in western North America is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, storing water from the winter (when most precipitation falls) and releasi

Mountain snowpack in western North America is a key component of the hydrologic cycle, storing water from the winter (when most precipitation falls) and releasing it in spring and early summer, when economic, environmental, and recreational demands for water throughout the West are frequently greatest. In most river basins of the West, especially in Washington, Oregon, and California, snow (rather than man-made reservoirs) is the largest component of water storage; hence, the West is (to varying degrees) vulnerable to climatic variations and changes that influence spring snowpack.

Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long‐Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 22nd, 2024

Detection and Measurement of Land Subsidence Using Global Positioning System Surveying and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, Coachella Valley, California, 1996–2005

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 13th, 2013

Land subsidence associated with ground-water-level declines has been investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Coachella Valley, California, since 1996. G

Land subsidence associated with ground-water-level declines has been investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Coachella Valley, California, since 1996. Groundwater has been a major source of agricultural, municipal, and domestic supply in the valley since the early 1920s. Pumping of ground water resulted in water-level declines as large as 15 meters (50 feet) through the late 1940s. In 1949, the importation of Colorado River water to the southern Coachella Valley began, resulting in a reduction in ground-water pumping and a recovery of water levels during the 1950s through the 1970s. Since the late 1970s, demand for water in the valley has exceeded deliveries of imported surface water, resulting in increased pumping and associated ground-water-level declines and, consequently, an increase in the potential for land subsidence caused by aquifer-system compaction. Global Positioning System (GPS) surveying and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) methods were used to determine the location, extent, and magnitude of the vertical land-surface changes in the southern Coachella Valley. GPS measurements made at 13 geodetic monuments in 1996 and in 2005 in the southern Coachella Valley indicate that the elevation of the land surface had a net decline of 124 to 9 mm ±54 mm (0.41 to 0.03 ft ±0.18 ft) during the 9-year period. Changes at 9 of the 13 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±54 mm (±0.18 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level, indicating that subsidence occurred at these monuments between June 1996 and August 2005. GPS measurements made at 20 geodetic monuments in 2000 and in 2005 indicate that the elevation of the land surface changed –192 to +51 mm ±36 mm (–0.63 to +0.17 ft ±0.12 ft) during the 5-year period. Changes at 6 of the 20 monuments exceeded the maximum expected uncertainty of ±36 mm (±0.12 ft) at the 95-percent confidence level—subsidence occurred at five monuments and uplift occurred at one monument between August 2000 and August 2005. GPS measurements at two of the five subsiding monuments for which subsidence rates could be compared indicate that subsidence rates decreased during this period compared with subsidence rates before 2000. InSAR measurements made between May 7, 2003, and September 25, 2005, indicate that land subsidence, ranging from about 75 to 180 millimeters (0.25 to 0.59 foot), occurred in three areas of the Coachella Valley: near Palm Desert, Indian Wells, and La Quinta; the equivalent subsidence rates range from about 3 to more than 6 mm/month (0.01 to 0.02 ft/month). The subsiding areas near Palm Desert, Indian Wells, and La Quinta were previously identified using InSAR measurements for 1996–2000, which indicated that about 35 to 150 mm (0.11 to 0.49 ft) of subsidence occurred during the four-year period; the equivalent subsidence rates range from about 1 to 3 mm/month (0.003 to 0.01 ft/month). Comparison of the InSAR results indicates that subsidence rates have increased 2 to 4 times since 2000 in these three areas. Water-level measurements made at wells near the subsiding monuments and in the three subsiding areas generally indicated that the water levels fluctuated seasonally and declined annually between 1996 and 2005; some water levels in 2005 were at the lowest levels in their recorded histories. The coincident areas of subsidence and declining water levels suggest that aquifer-system compaction may be causing subsidence. If the stresses imposed by the historically lowest water levels exceeded the preconsolidation stress, the aquifer-system compaction and associated land subsidence may be permanent. Although the localized character of the subsidence signals is typical of the type of subsidence characteristically caused by localized ground-water pumping, the subsidence may also be related to tectonic activity in the valley.

Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 24th, 2020

Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater stora

Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater storage) could affect the sustainability of freshwater resources. Here, we used a fully-coupled climate model to investigate GWS changes over seven critical aquifers identified as significantly distressed by satellite observations. We assessed the potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that the climate-driven impacts on GWS changes do not necessarily reflect the long-term trend in precipitation; instead, the trend may result from enhancement of evapotranspiration, and reduction in snowmelt, which collectively lead to divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers. Finally, we compare the climate-driven and anthropogenic pumping impacts. The reduction in GWS is mainly due to the combined impacts of over-pumping and climate effects; however, the contribution of pumping could easily far exceed the natural replenishment.

Draft EIR Monterey Amendment to the State Water Project Contracts (Including Kern Water Bank Transfer) and Associated Actions as Part of a Settlement Agreement (Monterey Plus)

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 1st, 2015

The California Department of Water Resources (Department), as the lead agency under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), prepared the environmental impact rep

The California Department of Water Resources (Department), as the lead agency under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), prepared the environmental impact report (EIR) for the Monterey Amendment to the State Water Project Contracts (Including Kern Water Bank Transfer) and Associated Actions as Part of a Settlement Agreement (Monterey Plus) (Monterey Plus EIR). The Department certified the Monterey Plus EIR on February 1, 2010. Several parties challenged the adequacy of the Monterey Plus EIR under CEQA. In 2014, the Monterey Plus EIR was found by the Sacramento County Superior Court (Court) to comply with CEQA in all aspects except with respect to the development, use, and operation of the Kern Water Bank (KWB). The Court specified that the Department is to correct the deficiencies and recertify the EIR without reopening the non-defective portions of the EIR. Upon recertification, only those portions of the Revised EIR (REIR) that are new or changed shall be subject to challenge under CEQA by petitioners or other interested parties. For these reasons, the Department has developed this three-volume Monterey Plus Draft Revised EIR. Document A1 presents all the changes to the Monterey Plus EIR made as a result of the Department’s reanalysis of the Kern Fan Element (KFE) property transfer and new analysis of the KWB development and continued use and operation.  Since DWR decertified the Monterey Plus EIR, pursuant to the Court’s order, the Revised EIR also includes, without modification, the 2007 Draft EIR (Document B, including Volumes I and II) and the 2010 Final EIR (Document C, including Volumes I and II). Together, the three documents constitute the Monterey Plus Draft Revised EIR (Figure P-1). The Draft Revised EIR focuses on the development and continued use and operations of the KWB near Bakersfield. Potentially significant impacts before mitigation were related to groundwater levels and quality, Kern River water quality, the Cross Valley Canal, terrestrial biological resources, erosion, hazardous materials, waterborne disease, cultural and paleontological resources, greenhouse gas emissions, and cumulative impacts.  Potentially significant and unavoidable impacts were related to cumulative growth-related impacts. The Draft Revised EIR identifies hazardous sites on or near KWB Lands that have been remediated.

Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 2nd, 2018

Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying

Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying much of the water used for irrigated agriculture, and municipal and industrial uses. Updating our earlier work published in 2005, we find that with 14 additional years of data, over 90% of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US now show declines, of which 33% are significant (vs. 5% expected by chance) and 2% are significant and positive (vs. 5% expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. We find a large increase in the fraction of locations that posted decreasing trends, and averaged across the western US, the decline in average April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15–30% or 25–50 km3, comparable in volume to the West’s largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead.

Economic and Water Supply Effects of Ending Groundwater Overdraft in California's Central Valley

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | March 1st, 2016

Surface water and groundwater management are often tightly linked, even when linkage is not intended or expected. This link is especially common in semi-arid regions, suc

Surface water and groundwater management are often tightly linked, even when linkage is not intended or expected. This link is especially common in semi-arid regions, such as California. This paper summarizes a modeling study on the effects of ending long-term overdraft in California’s Central Valley, the state’s largest aquifer system. The study focuses on economic and operational aspects, such as surface water pumping and diversions, groundwater recharge, water scarcity, and the associated operating and water scarcity costs. This analysis uses CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model for California’s water resource system that suggests operational changes to minimize net system costs for a given set of conditions, such as ending long-term overdraft. Based on model results, ending overdraft might induce some major statewide operational changes, including large increases to Delta exports, more intensive conjunctive-use operations with increasing artificial and in-lieu recharge, and greater water scarcity for Central Valley agriculture. The statewide costs of ending roughly 1.2 maf yr of groundwater overdraft are at least $50 million per year from additional direct water shortage and additional operating costs. At its worst, the costs of ending Central Valley overdraft could be much higher, perhaps comparable to the recent economic effects of drought. Driven by recent state legislation to improve groundwater sustainability, ending groundwater overdraft has important implications statewide for water use and management, particularly in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Ending Central Valley overdraft will amplify economic pressure to increase Delta water exports rather than reduce them, tying together two of California’s largest water management problems.