Water Temperature Modeling Platform Mid-Term Review

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | October 21st, 2021

Water: Science, Policy, and Management: Challenges and Opportunities

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 1st, 2003

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 16. From the local to the global scale, water use and sustainabilit

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Water Resources Monograph Series, Volume 16. From the local to the global scale, water use and sustainability are issues of pressing importance. Never before has water science needed to inform water policy so much, and never before have we seen how challenging it is to advance that relationship. How rapidly is the demand for water growing? What climate- or pollution-imposed limits to water supplies exist, and how can we best manage them? Will privatization benefit water management, resource development, and the environment? How can science work more closely with the policy and engineering communities to perfect knowledge-based water planning? Water: Science, Policy, and Management discusses these issues, and more. Scientists in water research and geography, water policy experts, water managers and engineers, lawyers grappling with water issues, and environmentalists concerned with the state of water internationally will find this book a significant resource now and in the coming years.

Why People Adopt Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors: Integrated Model of Risk Communication and Results from Hurricanes, Floods, and Wildfires

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 2022

With climate change, weather and climate disaster risks are increasing. At-risk individuals can take climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction behaviors to mitigate

With climate change, weather and climate disaster risks are increasing. At-risk individuals can take climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction behaviors to mitigate and prepare for disaster risks, reduce costs from damage, and save their lives. However, previous fragmented studies have not provided an integrated model to directly compare the factors and identify factors that are most influential in at-risk community members’ behaviors. I present the Integrated Model of Risk Communication by consolidating major theories. This study uses structural equation modeling of quantitative surveys to simultaneously test the impacts of 15 factors on 15 adaptation behaviors for the two most common federally declared disasters (wildfires and hurricanes with floods) in three disaster-prone U.S. states (California, Florida, and Texas) (N = 3,468). Specifically, this study examines 15 behaviors including preparedness, nonstructural mitigation, structural mitigation, insurance purchase, and adaptation policy support. Social norms perceptions, self-efficacy, response efficacy, and resource constraints strongly affect behaviors. Response efficacy strongly affects policy support. Risk perception, knowledge, and climate change perception—commonly argued to be key drivers—are insignificant or weak. The models explain 55%–86% of the variance in adaptation behaviors. Results suggest that the focus of adaptation efforts may need to shift from risk perception and climate change perception to efficacy and social norms.

Wildfires, Floods, and Climate Variability

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) | May 10th, 2018

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how clim

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network. The study identifies opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. The second chapter analyzes National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data to quantify the economic impacts of flooding across the western United States from 1978 to 2007. The study compares National Flood Insurance Program data to National Weather Service measures of total damages, and presents a spatial and temporal analysis of daily claims and loss data over this period. The NFIP data reveals that a small number winter-season extreme hydrologic events, covering wide spatial areas, are responsible for a large proportion of total losses. In coastal southern California and across the southwest, El Niño conditions have had a strong effect in producing more frequent and higher magnitudes of insured losses while La Niña conditions significantly reduce both the frequency and magnitude losses. In the Pacific Northwest, the opposite pattern appears, though the effect is somewhat weaker, and less spatially coherent. The third chapter quantifies the economic impacts of flooding due to atmospheric river (AR) events in the western United States from 1978 to 2007, using NFIP claims and loss data. The study confirms that AR-related flood events cause significant economic damages and form the primary source of insurance claims and insured flood losses in the western coastal states. It provides spatial and temporal characterizations of damages as a function of integrated vapor transport (IVT) and antecedent hydrologic conditions. As the magnitude and frequency of wildfire and flood events change in response to anthropogenic climate change, and as economic and demographic contributions to vulnerability increase over time, public policy must adapt to respond. The results in these papers may be used to inform policies to mitigate losses and respond to future disaster scenarios, and may be of interest to policy makers and applied climate researchers alike.