Where We Agree: Building Consensus on Solutions to California’s Urban Water Challenges

Pacific Institute | March 9th, 2016

California has a long list of unresolved and difficult water challenges, made more urgent by the severe drought that is gripping the state. As the state’s population co

California has a long list of unresolved and difficult water challenges, made more urgent by the severe drought that is gripping the state. As the state’s population continues to grow and climate changes become increasingly apparent, the pressures to identify and implement solutions to these critical challenges have only intensified. Recognizing an urgent need for serious changes in the way water is managed and used in the state, a broad array of stakeholders saw an opportunity to move beyond the traditional rancor and conflict by coming together to identify pragmatic and achievable solutions to urban water challenges. During 2015, the Pacific Institute, in partnership with the California-Nevada Section of the American Water Works Association, UC Berkeley Water Center, and UC Davis Extension’s Collaboration Center, coordinated a series of in-depth Where We Agree meetings. This unique effort provided participants opportunities to set aside differences and explore water technologies and policies that would have broad support. Together, they generated a set of practical recommendations for policymakers, municipal water managers, businesses, and community groups. “It’s time to put disagreements aside and concentrate on implementing solutions that we know work and launching innovative approaches to managing the state’s water resources,” said Pacific Institute Water Program Director Heather Cooley. “I am delighted with the progress this group made to create and advance a wide range of positive, on-the-ground solutions to California’s water crisis.”

White Wolf Subbasin Technical Report

Wheeler Ridge-Maricopa Water Storage District | March 16th, 2016

The purpose of the White Wolf Subbasin Technical Study (Study) is to support the basin boundary modification request (Request) being jointly submitted to DWR by Wheeler-R

The purpose of the White Wolf Subbasin Technical Study (Study) is to support the basin boundary modification request (Request) being jointly submitted to DWR by Wheeler-Ridge Maricopa Water Storage District (WRMWSD), Arvin-Edison Water Storage District (AEWSD), and Tejon-Castac Water District (TCWD) (collectively referred to as the Districts), in accordance with the Basin Boundary Emergency Regulations. Request is a scientific request that involves the subdivision of the Kern County Subbasin of the San Joaquin Valley Groundwater Basin (DWR Basin 5-22.14) into two separate subbasins: the Kern County Subbasin and the White Wolf Subbasin (Subbasin). As shown on Figure 1, the proposed revision divides the subbasins along the White Wolf Fault (WWF), relying upon scientific evidence that demonstrates that the WWF provides a significant impediment to groundwater flow.

Who makes decisions about California's water?

Restore the Delta | January 9th, 2023

This project collected and created data on California's water managers at the state, local and individual level to determine their race and gender. At the State level, we

This project collected and created data on California's water managers at the state, local and individual level to determine their race and gender. At the State level, we used the State Workforce Analysis to examine the race and gender of water-related state executives. At the local level, we coded about 1500 directors of water agencies for race and gender and then compared each board to the race and gender of the agency service areas. At the individual level, we coded nearly 14,000 individual rights holders for race. The results were not surprising. At every level, the people who make decisions about California's water are more white and more male than the population of California. At the local agency level, boards of directors are 86% White and 79% male. At the individual level, 91% of small named water rights holders have last names that code as White.

Why People Adopt Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors: Integrated Model of Risk Communication and Results from Hurricanes, Floods, and Wildfires

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 2022

With climate change, weather and climate disaster risks are increasing. At-risk individuals can take climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction behaviors to mitigate

With climate change, weather and climate disaster risks are increasing. At-risk individuals can take climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction behaviors to mitigate and prepare for disaster risks, reduce costs from damage, and save their lives. However, previous fragmented studies have not provided an integrated model to directly compare the factors and identify factors that are most influential in at-risk community members’ behaviors. I present the Integrated Model of Risk Communication by consolidating major theories. This study uses structural equation modeling of quantitative surveys to simultaneously test the impacts of 15 factors on 15 adaptation behaviors for the two most common federally declared disasters (wildfires and hurricanes with floods) in three disaster-prone U.S. states (California, Florida, and Texas) (N = 3,468). Specifically, this study examines 15 behaviors including preparedness, nonstructural mitigation, structural mitigation, insurance purchase, and adaptation policy support. Social norms perceptions, self-efficacy, response efficacy, and resource constraints strongly affect behaviors. Response efficacy strongly affects policy support. Risk perception, knowledge, and climate change perception—commonly argued to be key drivers—are insignificant or weak. The models explain 55%–86% of the variance in adaptation behaviors. Results suggest that the focus of adaptation efforts may need to shift from risk perception and climate change perception to efficacy and social norms.

Why Seasonal Prediction of California Winter Precipitation is Challenging

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 7th, 2022

Despite an urgent demand for reliable seasonal prediction of precipitation in California (CA) due to the recent recurrent and severe drought conditions, our predictive sk

Despite an urgent demand for reliable seasonal prediction of precipitation in California (CA) due to the recent recurrent and severe drought conditions, our predictive skill for CA winter precipitation remains limited. October hindcasts by the coupled dynamical models typically show a correlation skill of about 0.3 for CA winter (November–March) precipitation. In this study, an attempt is made to understand the underlying processes that limit seasonal prediction skill for CA winter precipitation. It is found that only about 25% of interannual variability of CA winter precipitation can be attributed to influences by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Instead, the year-to-year CA winter precipitation variability is primarily due to circulation anomalies independent from ENSO, featuring a circulation center over the west coast United States as a portion of a short Rossby wave train pattern over the North Pacific. Analyses suggest that dynamical models show nearly no skill in predicting these ENSO-independent circulation anomalies, thus leading to limited predictive skill for CA winter precipitation. Low predictability of these ENSO-independent circulation anomalies is further demonstrated by a large ensemble of atmospheric-only climate model simulations. While low predictability of the ENSO-independent circulation anomalies could be due to chaotic internal atmospheric processes over the mid- to high latitudes, possible underexploited predictability sources for CA precipitation in models are also discussed. This study pinpoints an urgent need for improved understanding of the formation mechanisms of ENSO-independent circulation anomalies over the U.S. West Coast for a breakthrough in seasonal prediction of CA winter precipitation.

Wildfires, Floods, and Climate Variability

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) | May 10th, 2018

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how clim

The first chapter surveys fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and national levels. Survey results in the form of fire managers’ decision calendars show how climate information needs vary seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network. The study identifies opportunities to use climate information in fire management, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, to improve the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and staffing and budgeting decisions. The second chapter analyzes National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) data to quantify the economic impacts of flooding across the western United States from 1978 to 2007. The study compares National Flood Insurance Program data to National Weather Service measures of total damages, and presents a spatial and temporal analysis of daily claims and loss data over this period. The NFIP data reveals that a small number winter-season extreme hydrologic events, covering wide spatial areas, are responsible for a large proportion of total losses. In coastal southern California and across the southwest, El Niño conditions have had a strong effect in producing more frequent and higher magnitudes of insured losses while La Niña conditions significantly reduce both the frequency and magnitude losses. In the Pacific Northwest, the opposite pattern appears, though the effect is somewhat weaker, and less spatially coherent. The third chapter quantifies the economic impacts of flooding due to atmospheric river (AR) events in the western United States from 1978 to 2007, using NFIP claims and loss data. The study confirms that AR-related flood events cause significant economic damages and form the primary source of insurance claims and insured flood losses in the western coastal states. It provides spatial and temporal characterizations of damages as a function of integrated vapor transport (IVT) and antecedent hydrologic conditions. As the magnitude and frequency of wildfire and flood events change in response to anthropogenic climate change, and as economic and demographic contributions to vulnerability increase over time, public policy must adapt to respond. The results in these papers may be used to inform policies to mitigate losses and respond to future disaster scenarios, and may be of interest to policy makers and applied climate researchers alike.

Winter wet–dry weather patterns driving atmospheric rivers and Santa Ana winds provide evidence for increasing wildfire hazard in California

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | August 12th, 2022

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work

Floods caused by atmospheric rivers and wildfires fanned by Santa Ana winds are common occurrences in California with devastating societal impacts. In this work, we show that winter weather variability in California, including the occurrence of extreme and impactful events, is linked to four atmospheric circulation regimes over the North Pacific Ocean previously named and identified as the “NP4 modes”. These modes come in and out of phase with each other during the season, result- ing in distinct weather patterns that recur throughout the historical record. Some phase combinations favor atmospheric river landfalls and extreme daily or multi-day precipitation, while other phase combinations favor anomalously hot weather and drying Santa Ana wind conditions over Southern California. This historical perspective of atmospheric circulation and impacts over 70 years reveals that weather patterns are changing in a way that enhances wildfire hazard in California, while the frequency of weather patterns linked to historical floods is not diminishing. These changes highlight the rising hazards of cascading weather extremes in California’s present and future.

Yolo Bypass Salmon Habitat Restoration and Fish Passage Analytical Tool Review

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | October 1st, 2017

NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) have issued a Biological Opinion (BiOp) on the long-term operat

NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) have issued a Biological Opinion (BiOp) on the long-term operations of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP) that includes Reasonable and Prudent Alternatives (RPA) designed to alleviate jeopardy to listed species and adverse modification of critical habitat. NMFS’ RPA requires the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to increase juvenile flood plain rearing habitat and improve adult fish passage for ESA-listed salmonids and sturgeon. The BiOp requires seventy-three (73) habitat restoration actions, five of which are specific to the Yolo Bypass. The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) and Reclamation have developed project alternatives for the Draft Yolo Bypass Fish Passage and Habitat Restoration EIS/EIR focused on the following two Yolo Bypass actions, which are the subject of this review:  - Increase seasonal floodplain inundation in the lower Sacramento River Basin  - Improve fish passage throughout the Yolo Bypass Alternatives The alternatives developed to address these two actions consist of a notch in the Fremont Weir, with alternative locations and configurations (width and weir-crest elevations), designed to increase the frequency and duration of hydraulic connectivity between the main-stem Sacramento River and the Yolo Bypass and to improve fish passage. Six alternative locations / configurations for a notch were identified.

Yuba Subbasins Water Management Plan: A Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Yuba Water Agency | December 27th, 2019