Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 30th, 2019

Society's progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and

Society's progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and a growing sense that urgent action is needed. The resilience vignettes describe the meaning and impact of current and near‐term change in four major domains: human health impacts from air pollution, coastal inundation from sea‐level rise, damaging earthquakes in populated areas, and impacts from extreme precipitation. Given our understanding of the scientific principles, societal action, from preparation to adaption, will be critical in minimizing the negative impacts of today's changes. The unprecedented rates of change in today's Earth system argue for urgent action in support of a resilient global society.

Toward a Vibrant, Prosperous, and Sustainable Fresno County: Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Midst of Rapid Change

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Fresno County is located centrally within the State of California. The central portion of the county makes up part of the state’s breadbasket, the San Joaquin Valley, k

Fresno County is located centrally within the State of California. The central portion of the county makes up part of the state’s breadbasket, the San Joaquin Valley, known for its vast agricultural productivity, whereas the Sierra Nevada Mountains make up the eastern portion of the county providing water from snowmelt and varied opportunities for recreation.  Fresno County recently began making a significant investment in its economic vitality and the well-being and quality of life of its residents through the San Joaquin Valley Blueprint. Aside the growing pressures and challenges that accompany further population growth and development, external pressures will also impinge on the county. Climate change – one of these important additional pressures – will impact Fresno in a variety of ways, some potentially severe, with direct impacts on its people, its all-important agricultural sector (and related economic activity), its supporting infrastructure and services, as well as the natural environment on which much of the county’s economy, rural character, and quality of life directly depend. This report details current vulnerabilities to weather- and climate-related changes and extreme events in Fresno, and explores how climate change may exacerbate or change them in the decades ahead. The report draws on publicly available reports, plans, and data repositories available from local (municipal and county), state, federal and nongovernmental sources as well as on peer-reviewed research papers. For the social vulnerability assessment, original research was conducted to assess differential vulnerabilities among San Luis Obispo’s population. Other assessments of vulnerability rest on the critical assessment of current conditions as ascertained from the existing information. This report provides a review of the region’s projected climate change and existing demographics and economic industries and infrastructure. Among the most critical additional stresses from climate warming are increased average seasonal temperatures; longer, more intense heat waves; changes in rainfall patterns and water availability (via Sierra snowmelt); and increases in wildfires. The changes could translate into major damage in terms of public and environmental health, and Fresno’s economy, e.g., the production of nut and fruit crops. From the social vulnerability analysis conducted, a clear picture of differential social and economic vulnerabilities emerges characterized above all by the enormous dependence of the county’s economy and population on the highly climate-sensitive agricultural sector. These growing issues, while challenging, can be surmounted with timely and adequate planning and preparation. City and county governments, as well as private and civic sector actors, can integrate adaptation into their ongoing efforts to implement already existing plans, such as the Valley Blueprint, Fresno Green and other local and regional measures. Many of these social, economic, institutional, educational, and infrastructure measures can be implemented on regular maintenance, upgrading, planning, and budgeting cycles, and bring benefits to the county’s residents, particularly its disadvantaged groups, its quality of life and environment, its fiscal situation and its economy overall. Thus, developing adaptation plans and implement agreed-upon measures is directly in support of Fresno County achieving its vision of a vibrant, prosperous and sustainable future.

Toward Natural Infrastructure to Manage Shoreline Change in California

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Flooding and erosion caused by rising sea levels and powerful storms threaten property throughout coastal California. To protect against these climate-change related thr

Flooding and erosion caused by rising sea levels and powerful storms threaten property throughout coastal California. To protect against these climate-change related threats, landowners will certainly take action, and the default industry standard response has been to try to “hold the line” against the encroaching sea by constructing seawalls, dikes, levees and other forms of coastal armoring. While armoring may in some cases provide acceptable short-term protection, armoring also tends to accelerate shoreline erosion, exacerbating hazards to people and leading to the eventual loss of critical wildlife habitat and public beaches. Natural Shoreline Infrastructure can be as effective as armoring, while having the added benefits of preserving coastal habitat and public access. Recognizing this, California agencies have mandated that decision-makers prioritize its use in planning and investment decisions. Yet, planners have encountered many stumbling blocks as they have tried to incorporate these approaches into coastal resilience plans. Major obstacles include: a lack of a common definition and shared terminology; lack of expertise; lack of precedent; and the absence of siting guidance and technical design standards. Here, we set out to enable planners to adopt Natural Shoreline Infrastructure by filling in the missing information. With the input of dozens of coastal managers who served on our Technical Advisory Committee, we developed a definition and collected a list of case studies where Natural Shoreline Infrastructure has already been successfully deployed in California. Drawing from these and other projects, we collected into one place the first detailed technical guidance for implementation, including siting criteria and design thresholds. These criteria inform decisions about where and when to use six types of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure (e.g. sand dunes, seagrass beds). Using Monterey Bay and Ventura County projects as examples, we demonstrate how to use the technical guidance in tandem with spatial data to match a particular shoreline environment with appropriate Natural Shoreline Infrastructure options, creating “blueprints” for action. The information in this report is intended to facilitate the use of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure along California’s coast, improving the resilience of communities and habitats in the face of climate change.

Towards the Protection, Restoration, and Enhancement of the Delta Ecosystem: A Synthesis. Appendix A: Summary of Existing Habitat and Species-Specific Plans, Strategies, and Management Approaches

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | March 15th, 2018

Tracking Where Water Goes in a Changing Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Technical Appendix: Methods and Detailed Results for 1980–2021

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | May 26th, 2022

Our goal is to provide water policymakers, managers, and regulators with information that will be helpful in managing the Delta and its watershed for multiple objectives

Our goal is to provide water policymakers, managers, and regulators with information that will be helpful in managing the Delta and its watershed for multiple objectives as warming conditions increase water demand, reduce snowpack, and make it harder to balance these objectives. An accompanying policy brief summarizes the findings presented here and highlights the major policy recommendations. This appendix provides details and evidence to support those recommendations and is intended for both a technical and policy audience. In the following sections we first review our approach for categorizing water flows in the watershed, and we review the caveats and limitations of the analysis. We next present key results and discuss several important watershed trends. We then review the management challenges of changing conditions in the Delta in wet and dry years through the lens of detailed water accounting. We conclude with implications for policy and management, including recommendations to improve watershed accounting and adapt the regulatory and management framework to the changing conditions in the watershed. All data assembled for this study, along with the sources and methods used, are detailed in the accompanying PPIC Delta Water Accounting spreadsheets.

Tracy Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

County of San Joaquin GSA | November 1st, 2021

The Tracy Subbasin boundaries follow the Old River on the northwest, the Coastal Range on the southwest and south, and the San Joaquin River on the east. The southeast bo

The Tracy Subbasin boundaries follow the Old River on the northwest, the Coastal Range on the southwest and south, and the San Joaquin River on the east. The southeast boundary of the Subbasin, along the San Joaquin-Stanislaus county line, follows irregular water district boundaries. The Subbasin is almost entirely with San Joaquin County but includes a small triangular portion of Alameda County. About one-half of the Subbasin is a mix of Delta islands (mostly agriculture) and waterways while the other half is comprised of urban and agricultural communities (Non-Delta areas).

Transitions for the Delta Economy

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | January 3rd, 2012

Enormous changes—from natural forces to management decisions—are coming to California’s fragile Delta region and will have broad effects on its residents. This repo

Enormous changes—from natural forces to management decisions—are coming to California’s fragile Delta region and will have broad effects on its residents. This report finds that in the first half of this century, the Delta as a whole is likely to experience a loss of 1 percent of economic activity as a result of these changes. It also identifies planning priorities for managing the Delta’s future.

Translating Science-Based Restoration Strategies into Spatially-Explicit Restoration Opportunities in the Delta (2018 Bay-Delta Science Conference Presentation)

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 2nd, 2018

In a previous report titled “A Delta Renewed” we offered a collection of guidelines for science-based ecological restoration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that

In a previous report titled “A Delta Renewed” we offered a collection of guidelines for science-based ecological restoration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that emphasized restoring or emulating natural processes, anticipating future changes associated with climate change, establishing appropriate configurations of habitat types at the landscape scale, and utilizing a variety multi-benefit management strategies. In this talk, we present on our recent work to support regional restoration planning efforts by developing a repeatable process for using these guidelines to identify spatially-explicit restoration opportunities. The process is largely GIS-based and utilizes spatial data on existing land cover and conservation status, habitat configuration (including patch sizes and distances), surface elevations (including depth of subsidence), and future changes in tidal elevations associated with sea-level rise.  By distilling generalized guidelines into spatially-explicit opportunities, we hope to provide a practical tool for incorporating science into planning. To that end, these new methods are currently being piloted through planning efforts focused on the Central Delta Corridor and the McCormack Williamson Tract, and are also being used to assist with the quantification of ecological restoration potential in the Delta Plan Ecosystem Amendment.

Tri-County Water Authority Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Tri-County Water Authority | December 18th, 2019

Truckee Basin Study Basin Study Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 8th, 2015

The Truckee River Basin (Basin) provides a compelling demonstration for how changes in demands and/or a region’s climate could influence both natural and human water us

The Truckee River Basin (Basin) provides a compelling demonstration for how changes in demands and/or a region’s climate could influence both natural and human water uses. Packed into this relatively small Basin is every form of water use and every type of water user that exists in the Western United States, including: tribal lands and trusts; irrigated agriculture; municipalities and industry; mining and geothermal energy exploration; Federal water projects; hydropower generation; lake, stream, and reservoir recreation; and restoration efforts for diminished wetlands and endangered aquatic species. Correspondingly, the diversity of water uses within its borders has made the Basin home to every type of water resources conflict. Despite this natural conflict, communities in the Basin have actively managed and adapted to water scarcity for as long as the arid region has been inhabited. Management activities include a number of massive water resource facilities, built through both Federal and local investment over the past century-and-a-half. In parallel with the construction of these facilities, regulations to govern their use have been promulgated in response to demands and to provide the flexibility to deal with highly variable weather patterns. Thus, like many basins in the West, water management practices, including diversion regulations, have been developed through a century of infrastructure improvements followed by decades of litigation. But unlike most basins, the closed hydrologic condition of the Basin creates a zero-sum game for water. The Truckee River has never had surplus water: each drop from its headwaters at Lake Tahoe to its terminus at Pyramid Lake serves important human uses and ecological functions. As a result, even small changes in future conditions (e.g., increases in demand or changes in climate) are perceptible and potentially contentious.