The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 17th, 2017

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (averag

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906–1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively −20% by midcentury and −35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding −30% at midcentury and −55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.

The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 17th, 2017

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15‐year drought on record. At least one‐sixth to one‐half (

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906–1999 average, the worst 15‐year drought on record. At least one‐sixth to one‐half (average at one‐third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906–1999 average), confirming model‐based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model‐based temperature projections indicate that continued business‐as‐usual warming will drive temperature‐induced declines in river flow, conservatively −20% by midcentury and −35% by end‐century, with support for losses exceeding −30% at midcentury and −55% at end‐century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.

The U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act: Water Components

Pacific Institute | November 12th, 2021

On November 5, 2021, the U.S. Congress passed President Biden’s major infrastructure bill, HR 3684, the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The Presid

On November 5, 2021, the U.S. Congress passed President Biden’s major infrastructure bill, HR 3684, the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The President is expected to sign the bill into law. The bill is the largest single federal investment in infrastructure in a generation, with the funds to be expended over five years. It aims to rebuild and replace failing, aging, and outdated water, energy, transportation, and communications systems. As the first significant federal investment in climate resilience, it also begins to address the growing consequences of climate change, including intensifying extreme weather events, increasing temperatures, and rising sea levels, on communities throughout the United States. One key component of the Act is the set of proposals to address the wide range of water-related challenges facing the United States. This Pacific Institute analysis provides an overview of how the Infrastructure Act addresses these challenges.

The unequal burdens of water scarcity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

Curtailing water use during drought is costly, but those costs are not evenly distributed. Socio–hydrological modelling shows how water burdens fall more heavily on poo

Curtailing water use during drought is costly, but those costs are not evenly distributed. Socio–hydrological modelling shows how water burdens fall more heavily on poor households in response to water conservation policies.

The Water Districts of California

Association of California Water Agencies (ACWA) | April 1st, 1979

The West Wide Drought Tracker: Drought Monitoring at Fine Spatial Scales

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 1st, 2017

 The western United States has seen increases in population and water use over the past century. Total water use has remained relatively unchanged over the past several

 The western United States has seen increases in population and water use over the past century. Total water use has remained relatively unchanged over the past several decades due to water conservation efforts. However, water scarcity has become more acute across much of this semiarid region during recent decades due to long-term declines in water storage juxtaposed with the region’s notable hydroclimatic variability. Observed declines in mountain snowpack and increases in atmospheric demands tied to long-term warming trends have further exacerbated water scarcity and increased the importance of monitoring efforts given the array of social, economic, and ecosystem sectors dependent upon the already stressed water supply. The recent severe drought in California and protracted drought across much of the southwestern United States over the past couple decades have prompted demand for accessible drought decision-making information at appropriate spatial scales across the western United States. 

Thermal performance in juvenile hatchery Oncorhynchus tshawytscha: aerobic scope tests over a range of environmental temperatures

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) | March 15th, 2016

In heavily-altered ecosystems, anthropogenic factors coupled with global climate change have drastically changed available habitats for many native fishes (Cloe

In heavily-altered ecosystems, anthropogenic factors coupled with global climate change have drastically changed available habitats for many native fishes (Cloern and Jassby 2012, Moyle et al. 2013). Water projects such as large hydropower dams have altered flow and temperature regimes (Poff et al. 1997, Bunn and Arthington 2002, Marchetti and Moyle 2001), and reduced or degraded native spawning and rearing habitats (Sheer and Steel 2006, Pelicice and Agostinho 2008), while global climate change has resulted in warmer overall river temperatures (Cloern and Jassby, 2012). As ecologically relevant environmental variables like temperature have shifted, fish populations have subsequently declined (Cloern and Jassby, 2012; Hanak et al., 2015). Native California fishes have been disproportionately affected by these changes, and precipitous population declines have been observed for several species, some of which are listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) (Moyle et al. 2013). Despite documented correlations between fish declines and changes in environmental variables such as temperatur e (Moyle and Leidy, 1992; Moyle et al. 2010; Quiñones and Moyle 2014), there has been a profound lack of data available on the actual physiological and/or behavioral mechanisms driving fish population declines. Physiological performance data, such as information on aerobic scope, may help provide mechanistic explanations for both how and why fish population declines are occurring. Furthermore, as populations decline and management becomes more crucial for population persistence, thermal limits, optimal thermal ranges, and data on how key physiological processes, such as metabolic rate, change in response to environmental variables becomes more important. Therefore, the objectives of our study were to quantify the aerobic scope of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) acclimated to two different rearing temperatures (14 or 20 °C) and tested over a temperature range of 12-26°C.

Third Supplement To State Water Resources Board Bulletin No. 11, San Joaquin County Investigation, Basic Data, Calaveras Unit 1956-57

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 21st, 1958

Three-Dimensional Hydrogeologic Framework Model of the Russian River Watershed, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 19th, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was invited by the California State Water Resources Control Board and Sonoma County Water Agency to cooperate on a scientific investigat

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was invited by the California State Water Resources Control Board and Sonoma County Water Agency to cooperate on a scientific investigation to evaluate the groundwater resources of the Russian River watershed and to develop tools to better understand and manage the groundwater system. The purpose of this report is to describe the development of a digital 3D HFM of the Russian River watershed. Such a model will help fully conceptualize the 3D subsurface configuration of aquifers and also may be used as the primary geologic input to numerical simulations of the hydrologic system. The 3D HFM, and data used to construct the 3D HFM, can be found in the following data release (Fenton and others, 2022).

Tijuana River Valley Historical Ecology Investigation

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | January 2nd, 2017

The Tijuana River Valley Historical Ecology Investigation addresses a regional data gap by reconstructing the landscape and ecosystem characteristics of the river valley

The Tijuana River Valley Historical Ecology Investigation addresses a regional data gap by reconstructing the landscape and ecosystem characteristics of the river valley prior to the major modifications of the late 19th and 20th centuries. The research presented here, funded by the California State Coastal Conservancy, supplies foundational information at the regional and system scale about how the Tijuana Estuary, River, and valley looked and functioned in the recent past, as well as how they have changed over time. The ultimate goal of this study is to provide a new tool and framework that, in combination with contemporary research and future projections, can support and guide ongoing restoration design, planning, and management efforts in the valley.