An Update of the Death Valley Regional Groundwater Flow System Transient Model, Nevada and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 31st, 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has revised the regional-scale Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) numerical model with new data and interpretations s

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has revised the regional-scale Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) numerical model with new data and interpretations since the original numerical flow model was published in 2004 (Belcher (2004); re-published as Belcher and Sweetkind [2010]). Since the original publication of the DVRFS flow model, additional data have been collected and interpretations have been made. Cooperators such as the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Department of Energy, and Nye County, Nevada, recognized a need to update the existing regional numerical flow model to maintain its viability as a groundwater management tool for regional stakeholders. For the purposes of this report, the version of the DVRFS numerical flow model documented in Belcher and Sweetkind (2010) and Faunt, Blainey, and others (2010) is designated as DVRFS v. 1.0. The updated version, as presented in this report, is referred to as DVRFS v. 2.0. Knowledge of basin water balances and the magnitude of interbasin groundwater flow is the basis for regional groundwater management and water-resource planning in the Great Basin of Nevada (Scott and others, 1971). Rapid population growth, arid conditions, and increased water use have led to development of available groundwater resources. Groundwater use in some alluvial-fill basins has resulted in continued water-level declines and land subsidence. Adjacent bedrock aquifers are increasingly being targeted for additional development. Such groundwater development may potentially impact local and regional water quantity and quality, existing water rights, and wildlife habitats. An understanding of hydrogeologic processes that control the rate and direction of groundwater flow in southern Nevada is necessary to assess the potential effects of any proposed large-scale groundwater development. Potential water-resource conflicts exist because of disparate interests in the region, particularly with respect to the development of groundwater resources to meet agricultural, municipal, and industrial water demand and the need to protect habitat for endangered and threatened species. Water demands in the Amargosa Farms area from agricultural and suburban development, and rapidly urbanizing areas in Las Vegas and Pahrump Valleys place increasing pressure on existing groundwater resources. In addition, several solar-energy facilities have been proposed within the Death Valley region; water demands for these facilities will vary. Natural groundwater discharge at springs and seeps sustains habitat for numerous species, many of which are threatened, endangered, or otherwise considered sensitive. In 2004, the USGS documented a calibrated numerical flow model of the DVRFS (Belcher, 2004). The model, DVRFS v. 1.0, incorporated elements of several precursor numerical models but defined the boundaries of the regional flow system slightly different than in previous versions. The model simulates transient groundwater flow conditions in the DVRFS from 1913 through 1998. The report was subsequently revised and published as a USGS Professional Paper (Belcher and Sweetkind, 2010). Since release of DVRFS v. 1.0 in 2004, continued use of the model by cooperators, stakeholders, and interested parties in the region has demonstrated the need to improve specific aspects (such as the flow into northern Yucca Flat and parts of the Amargosa Desert), to update it with more recently acquired geologic and hydrologic data, and to extend the simulation period.

Analog Model Study of the Ground-Water Basin of the Upper Coachella Valley, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 18th, 1974

An analog model of the ground-water basin of the upper Coachella Valley was constructed to determine the effects of imported water on ground-water levels. The mod

An analog model of the ground-water basin of the upper Coachella Valley was constructed to determine the effects of imported water on ground-water levels. The model was considered verified when the ground-water levels generated by the model approximated the historical change in water levels of the ground-water basin caused by man's activities for the period 1936-67. The ground-water basin was almost unaffected by man's activities until about 1945 when ground-water development caused the water levels to begin to decline. The Palm Springs area has had the largest water-level decline, 75 feet since 1936, because of large pumpage, reduced natural inflow from the San Gorgonio Pass area, and diversions of natural inflows at Snow and Falls Creeks and Chino Canyon starting in 1945. The San Gorgonio Pass inflow had been reduced from about 13,000 acre-feet in 1936 to about 9,000 acre-feet by 1967 because of increased ground-water pumpage in the San Gorgonio Pass area, dewatering of the San Gorgonio Pass area that took place when the tunnel for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California was drilled, and diversions ofsurface inflow at Snow and Falls Creeks. In addition, 1944-64 was a period of below-normal precipitation which, in part, contributed to the declines in water levels in the Coachella Valley. The Desert Hot Springs, Garnet Hill, and Mission Creek subbasins have had relatively little development; consequently, the water-level declines have been small, ranging from 5 to 15 feet since 1936. In the Point Happy area a decline of about 2 feet per year continued until 1949 when delivery of Colorado River water to the lower valley through the Coachella Canal was initiated. Since 1949 the water levels in the Point Happy area have been rising and by 1967 were above their 1936 levels. The Whitewater River subbasin includes the largest aquifer in the basin, having sustained ground-water pumpage of about 740,000 acre-feet from 1936 to 1967, and will probably continue to provide the most significant supply of ground water for the upper valley. The total ground-water storage depletion for the entire upper valley for 1936-67 was about 600,000 acre-feet, an average stor age decrease of about 25,000 acre-feet per year since 1945. Transmissivity for the Whitewater River subbasin ranges from 360,000 gal- lons per day per foot (near Point Happy) to 50,000 gallons per day per foot, with most of the subbasin about 300,000 gallons per day per foot. In contrast, the transmissivities of the Desert Hot Springs, Mission Creek, and Garnet Hill sub-basins generally range from 2,000 to 100,000, but the highest value, beneath the Mission Creek streambed deposits, is 200,000 gallons per day per foot; the transmissivity for most of the area of the three subbasins is 30,000 gallons per day per foot. The storage coefficients are representative of water-table conditions, ranging from 0.18 beneath the Mission Creek stream deposits to 0.06 in the Palm Springs area. The model indicated that the outflow at Point Happy decreased from 50,000 acre-feet in 1936 to 30,000 acre-feet by 1967 as a result of the rising water levels in the lower valley. The most logical area to recharge the Colorado River water is the Windy Point-Whitewater area, where adequate percolation rates of 2 4 acre-feet per acre per day are probable. The Whitewater River bed may be the best location to spread the water if the largest part of the imported water can be recharged during low-flow periods. The area in sec. 21, T. 2 S., R. 4 E., would be adequate for the smaller quantities of recharge proposed for the Mission Creek area. Projected pumpage for the period 1968-2000 was programed on the model with the proposed recharge of Colorado River water for the same period. The model indicated a maximum water-level increase of 200 feet above the 1967 water level at Windy Point, the proposed recharge site, by the year 2000, a 130-foot increase by 1990, and a 20-foot increase by 1980. The model indicated that the proposed quantities of recharge will beneficially affect the ground-water system to Palm Desert by 1980, to Point Happy by 1990, and possibly to the Coachella Canal by 2000. The model indicated that the upper and lower valleys are within the same hydrologic system, and it has been proposed that the model be extended to the Salton Sea. On the basis of the available analyses, changes in the quality of ground water in the Whitewater River subbasin after recharge apparently will be, as a first approximation, proportional to the ratio in which the quantity of recharge and the quantity of ground water are mixed. Where mixing does not occur, the quality of the recharge water will probably not be greatly changed by ion-exchange phenomenon.

Analysis of Potential Water-Supply Management Options, 2010-60, and Documentation of Revisions to the Model of the Irwin Basin Aquifer System, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 31st, 2014

The Fort Irwin National Training Center is considering several alternatives to manage their limited water-supply sources in the Irwin Basin. An existing three-dimensional

The Fort Irwin National Training Center is considering several alternatives to manage their limited water-supply sources in the Irwin Basin. An existing three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater-flow model—the U.S. Geological Survey’s MOD-FLOW—of the aquifer system in the basin was updated and the initial input dataset was supplemented with groundwater withdrawal data for the period 2000–10. The updated model was then used to simulate four combinations, or scenarios, of groundwater withdrawal and recharge over the next 50 years (January 2011 through December 2060). The scenarios included combinations of continuing withdrawals from currently active production wells, supplementing any increases in demand with withdrawals from an inactive production well, reducing withdrawal amounts and rates, and reducing the discharge of treated wastewater to infiltration ponds that provide a recharge source to the underlying aquifer. Results of the simulations indicated that, depending on the scenario implemented, groundwater levels would rise (over the next 50 years) from 40 feet to as much as 65 feet in the northwestern part of the Irwin Basin, and from 5 feet to 10 feet in the southeastern part.

Analysis of the Carmel Valley Alluvial Ground-Water Basin, Monterey County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 14th, 1984

A two-dimensional, finite-element, digital model was developed for the Carmel Valley alluvial ground-water basin using measured, computed, and estimated discharge

A two-dimensional, finite-element, digital model was developed for the Carmel Valley alluvial ground-water basin using measured, computed, and estimated discharge and recharge data for the basin. Discharge data included evapotranspiration by phreatophytes and agricultural, municipal, and domestic pumpage. Recharge data included river leakage, tributary runoff, and pumping return flow. Recharge from subsurface boundary flow and rainfall infiltration was assumed to be insignificant. From 1974 through 1978, the annual pumping rate ranged from 5,900 to 9,100 acre-feet per year with 55 percent allotted to municipal use principally exported out of the valley, 44 percent to agricultural use, and 1 percent to domestic use. The pumpage return flow within the valley ranged from 900 to 1,500 acre-feet per year. The aquifer properties of transmissivity (about 5,900 feet squared per day) and of the storage coefficient (0.19) were estimated from an average alluvial thickness of 75 feet and from less well-defined data on specific capacity and grain-size distribution. During calibration the values estimated for hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient for the lower valley were reduced because of the smaller grain size there. The river characteristics were based on field and laboratory analyses of hydraulic conductivity and on altitude survey data. The model is intended principally for simulation of flow conditions using monthly time steps. Time variations in transmissivity and short-term, high- recharge potential are included in the model. The years 1974 through 1978 (including "pre-" and "post-" drought) were selected because of the extreme fluctuation in water levels between the low levels measured during dry years and the above-normal water levels measured during the preceding and following wet years. Also, during this time more hydrologic information was available. Significantly, computed water levels were generally within a few feet of the measured levels, and computed flows were close to gaged river flows for this simulation. However, the nonuniqueness of solutions with respect to different sets of data indicates the model does not necessarily validate the correctness of the individual variables. The model might be improved with additional knowledge of the distribution of confining sediments in the lower end of the valley and the aquifer properties above and below them. The solution algorithm could account for confinement or partial confinement in the lower end of the valley plus contributions from the Tularcitos aquifer.

Anthropogenic warming impacts on California snowpack during drought

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 15th, 2017

Sierra Nevada climate and snowpack is simulated during the period of extreme drought from 2011 to 2015 and compared to an identical simulation except for the removal of t

Sierra Nevada climate and snowpack is simulated during the period of extreme drought from 2011 to 2015 and compared to an identical simulation except for the removal of the twentieth century anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic warming reduced average snowpack levels by 25%, with middle‐to‐low elevations experiencing reductions between 26 and 43%. In terms of event frequency, return periods associated with anomalies in 4 year 1 April snow water equivalent are estimated to have doubled, and possibly quadrupled, due to past warming. We also estimate effects of future anthropogenic warmth on snowpack during a drought similar to that of 2011–2015. Further snowpack declines of 60–85% are expected, depending on emissions scenario. The return periods associated with future snowpack levels are estimated to range from millennia to much longer. Therefore, past human emissions of greenhouse gases are already negatively impacting statewide water resources during drought, and much more severe impacts are likely to be inevitable.

Anticipating Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of Extreme Storms: ARkStorm Scenario

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | July 22nd, 2015

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and e

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

Application of Satellite Data to Model Storm Runoff Into Rosamond Dry Lake

Loyola Marymount University | October 15th, 2014

Antelope Valley is situated in Southern California and is bounded by the Tehachapi and the San Gabriel Mountains. It stretches over 2,200 mi2 and encompasses Rosamond Dry

Antelope Valley is situated in Southern California and is bounded by the Tehachapi and the San Gabriel Mountains. It stretches over 2,200 mi2 and encompasses Rosamond Dry Lake and the 1,200 mi2 watershed draining into it. The cities of Lancaster and Palmdale are the two major urban centers that lie in the watershed draining into Rosamond Dry Lake. The lake lies within the vicinity of the Edwards Air Force Base and provides an important site for aviation research and test operations in addition to ecosystem services. Hence, it is necessary to balance the need to remove water from the lake to support Edwards Air Force Base’s aircraft missions and the need to inundate the lake to protect the its surface and the ecosystem it supports. 

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

Climate Services (Elsevier) | December 9th, 2017

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we u

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 11th, 2025

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is litt

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | July 16th, 2024