Pilot Study Examining Spatial Differences in Water Quality Between Shoal and Channel Habitats

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | August 1st, 2019

Under the umbrella of the Nutrient Management Strategy (NMS; www.sfbaynutrients.sfei.org), we are investigating relationships between the SFB’s elevated nutrient levels

Under the umbrella of the Nutrient Management Strategy (NMS; www.sfbaynutrients.sfei.org), we are investigating relationships between the SFB’s elevated nutrient levels and phytoplankton production, with the goal of identifying protective nutrient loads and effective nutrient management options. To address these goals, NMS work includes continued ship-based monitoring (in collaboration with USGS); augmenting that monitoring with high-frequency sensor data and intensive field studies; and developing coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models -- calibrated using field observations -- to simulate water quality under a range of forcings.

Planned operation of large-scale water-distribution system

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | May 1st, 1995

A water-supply-distribution-system planning model has been developed using a directed graph algorithm as its pre- and post-processors and a linear programming (LP) proced

A water-supply-distribution-system planning model has been developed using a directed graph algorithm as its pre- and post-processors and a linear programming (LP) procedure as an “intelligent” system operator at its core. The directed graph, as a preprocessor, is used to produce a mathematical representation of the distribution system in question, to check the consistency and correctness of the network topology before an input file is created for the LP procedure. In the postprocessing mode, the directed graph generates files for graphical displays of model results and performs graph analyses such as depth- and breadth-first traversals, cut-set and connectivity for evaluating water-quality blending, tracking of source-to-demand contributions, system reliability, and lifeline objectives. Unlike the conventional formulation of a resource-allocation problem, the demand requirements, storage capacities, and other system constraints are removed from the constraint set and translated into a composite objective function. This methodology was successfully applied to the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California's (MWD's) distribution system. The results indicate that the combination of using an LP procedure and graph algorithm is a very versatile tool for solving large-scale water-distribution problems. This paper documents the concept used in developing the system-planning model and the results of its application to a simplified example as well as application to four case studies involving the entire MWD's distribution system.

Poleward shift of the major ocean gyres detected in a warming climate

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 24th, 2020

Recent evidence shows that wind‐driven ocean currents, like the western boundary currents, are strongly affected by global warming. However, due to insufficient observa

Recent evidence shows that wind‐driven ocean currents, like the western boundary currents, are strongly affected by global warming. However, due to insufficient observations both on temporal and spatial scales, the impact of climate change on large‐scale ocean gyres is still not clear. Here, based on satellite observations of sea surface height and sea surface temperature, we find a consistent poleward shift of the major ocean gyres. Due to strong natural variability, most of the observed ocean gyre shifts are not statistically significant, implying that natural variations may contribute to the observed trends. However, climate model simulations forced with increasing greenhouse gases suggest that the observed shift is most likely to be a response of global warming. The displacement of ocean gyres, which is coupled with the poleward shift of extratropical atmospheric circulation, has broad impacts on ocean heat transport, regional sea level rise and coastal ocean circulation.

Potential Impacts of Future Geological Storage of CO2 on the Groundwater Resources in California’s Central Valley: Southern San Joaquin Basin Oil and Gas Production Analog for Geologic Carbon Storage

California Energy Commission (CEC) | May 1st, 2013

This study investigated the potential impacts of the injection and storage of large quantities of carbon dioxide on shallow water resources in California’s southern San

This study investigated the potential impacts of the injection and storage of large quantities of carbon dioxide on shallow water resources in California’s southern San Joaquin Basin, including the possibility that if such injection was properly planned it might help mitigate the land subsidence impacts related to over-pumping of groundwater. The project used simulation studies to investigate whether the basin-scale pressure changes and brine displacement caused by future carbon dioxide storage in the deep sediments could impact the groundwater-surface water systems in the area. Two simulation models were developed. The Deep Basin Reservoir Simulation Model was developed for accurately simulating the multiphase processes of carbon dioxide and brine flow occurring in deep sequestration reservoirs. The Shallow Water Resources Impact Simulation Model was developed for accurately predicting the impact of deep carbon dioxide sequestration on a stressed water system, including evaluation of carbon dioxide-related impacts in the context of the long-term groundwater and subsidence trends occurring in the area as a result of other water stresses such as pumping and irrigation. The Deep Basin Reservoir Simulation Model showed that the caprock and overlying geological units had sufficient barrier attributes to prevent pressure propagation from the injection layer to the shallow aquifers. The Shallow Water Resources Impact Simulation Model simulation results showed that deep carbon dioxide injection would create only minor head change and surface uplift in the shallow model layers. Overall the simulation results suggested that even large carbon dioxide storage projects should have minimal impact on shallow groundwater and surface water systems if thick layers of shales and sands separated the deep CO2 injection layers from shallow aquifers. Researchers believed this study justified devoting resources to evaluating the potential impact from localized pathways or from induced seismicity to more thoroughly investigate the feasibility of carbon dioxide storage in the southern San Joaquin Basin. 

Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructu

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructure, and environment. As part of a set of studies on climate change impacts to California, this paper analyzes the potential impacts from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast (a “no-adaptation scenario”), focusing on impacts to the state’s population and infrastructure. Heberger et al. (2009) also covered effects on wetlands, costs of coastal defenses, and social and environmental justice related to sea-level rise. We analyzed the effect of a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea-level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315(5810): 368, 2007). Under this scenario, sea levels rise by 1.4 m by the year 2100, far exceeding historical observed water level increases. By the end of this century, coastal flooding would, under this scenario, threaten regions that currently are home to approximately 480,000 people and $100 billion worth of property. Among those especially vulnerable are large numbers of low-income people and communities of color. A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants will also be at risk. Sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of California’s coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially costly and life-threatening impacts of sea-level rise.

Potential Impacts of Reduced Inflows to the Salton Sea: Forecasting Non-market Damages

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | September 28th, 2022

Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro‐climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Precipitation Regime Change in Western North America: the Role of Atmospheric Rivers

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 9th, 2019

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall re

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate modelsare evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting dailyprecipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

Precipitation shifts over western North America as a result of declining Arctic sea ice cover: The coupled system response

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | July 21st, 2009

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Resea

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation model [AGCM; Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3)] to explore climate sensitivity to declining Arctic sea ice cover suggested that, as Arctic sea ice cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions in northwestern North America. Here, three complementary lines of research validate and explore the robustness of this possible climate change impact: 1) repetition of the previous sensitivity study (specified constant Arctic sea ice cover and atmospheric CO2) with an updated version of the NCAR AGCM [third Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3)], 2) investigation of the climate response to dynamically reduced Arctic sea ice cover (driven by a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2) in the coupled NCAR Community Climate System Model.