Optimization of environmental water purchases with uncertainty

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 5th, 2006

Water managers are turning increasingly to market solutions to meet new environmental demands for water in fully allocated systems. This paper presents a three-stage pr

Water managers are turning increasingly to market solutions to meet new environmental demands for water in fully allocated systems. This paper presents a three-stage probabilistic optimization model that identifies least cost strategies for staged seasonal water purchases for an environmental water acquisition program given hydrologic, operational, and biological uncertainties. Multistage linear programming is used to minimize the expected cost of long-term, spot, and option water purchases used to meet uncertain environmental demands. Results prescribe the location, timing, and type of optimal water purchases and illustrate how least cost strategies change as information becomes available during the year. Results also provide sensitivity analysis, including shadow values that estimate the expected cost of additional dedicated environmental water. The model’s application to California’s Environmental Water Account is presented with a discussion of its utility for planning and policy purposes. Model limitations and sensitivity analysis are discussed, as are operational and research recommendations.

Over‐pumping leads to California groundwater arsenic threat

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 5th, 2018

Water resources are being challenged to meet domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. To complement finite surface water supplies that are being stressed b

Water resources are being challenged to meet domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. To complement finite surface water supplies that are being stressed by changes in precipitation and increased demand, groundwater is increasingly being used. Sustaining groundwater use requires considering both water quantity and quality. A unique challenge for groundwater use, as compared with surface water, is the presence of naturally occurring contaminants within aquifer sediments, which can enter the water supply. Here we find that recent groundwater pumping, observed through land subsidence, results in an increase in aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California. By comparison, historic groundwater pumping shows no link to current groundwater arsenic concentrations. Our results support the premise that arsenic can reside within pore water of clay strata within aquifers and is released due to overpumping. We provide a quantitative model for using subsidence as an indicator of arsenic concentrations correlated with groundwater pumping.

Paradise Regained: Solution for restoring Yosemite's Hetch Hetchy Valley

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) | July 15th, 2004

In this report Environmental Defense provides a planning-level analysis for replacing the water and hydropower benefits that the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir and O’Shaughness

In this report Environmental Defense provides a planning-level analysis for replacing the water and hydropower benefits that the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir and O’Shaughnessy Dam provide.We show how practical, proven water storage, conveyance and treatment alternatives can provide San Francisco a healthy, reliable and secure supply of water that is adequate for current and future needs.  We also explain how hydropower lost as a result of restoring the valley can be replaced without contributing to air pollution or global warming. The alternatives analyzed do not comprise all possible options, but they do demonstrate that workable solutions for restoring Hetch Hetchy Valley exist. We began this study with the premise that all solutions must be technologically feasible and affordable and must assure a dependable supply of safe drinking water. In addition to addressing the water and power needs of San Francisco and other Bay Area communities that rely on the Tuolumne River, solutions must also protect all affected California communities. Most obviously, any restoration plan must protect the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts, whose uses of the Tuolumne River predate and are intertwined with those of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) and its customers. Of course, a restoration plan must also consider the Groveland area, both as a user of the Tuolumne River water and as a gateway community to the Hetch Hetchy region of Yosemite National Park. Our analysis focuses mainly on alternative ways to move and store San Francisco’s existing supply of Tuolumne River water. Environmental Defense developed the TREWSSIM (Tuolumne River Equivalent Water Supply Simulation) model to evaluate the SFPUC’s system performance under a range of water supply alternatives, with and without Hetch Hetchy Reservoir.TREWSSIM incorporates features of both the SFPUC’s planning model HHSM-LSM and the state-federal CALSIM model. The TREWSSIM analysis addresses not only water supply issues, but also water treatment and hydropower. Three expert consultants assisted in our analysis: Schlumberger Water Services provided engineering analyses and modeling assistance; Eisenberg, Olivieri and Associates analyzed water quality issues; and Somach, Simmons  & Dunn assessed the legal landscape. Academic experts provided peer review. The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency, and the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts also provided information to help ensure an accurate report.

Paso Robles vineyard irrigation study provides benchmark data to assist future area groundwater management

California Agriculture (UCANR) | March 13th, 2018

Accurate information on irrigation water usage does not exist in many areas where groundwater is the primary water source. This lack of information will hinder

Accurate information on irrigation water usage does not exist in many areas where groundwater is the primary water source. This lack of information will hinder efforts to manage these groundwater basins sustainably according to current and future water regulations and policies. Using a low-cost methodology of irrigation-line pressure sensors connected to data loggers, we estimated irrigation applications at 84 vineyard sites in the Paso Robles Groundwater Basin over 4 years (2010–2013). We compared irrigation amounts with the preceding winter’s rainfall and with the growing season reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Over the study period, the average annual irrigation application was 11.46 inches (291 millimeters). The average annual application correlated inversely to the preceding winter’s rainfall, while the irrigation over the growing season (April–October) correlated directly with the ETo over this same period. This study provides an initial data framework that can be used by groundwater sustainability agencies to help manage groundwater in the Paso Robles area. The methodology also could be utilized in other regions to estimate regional irrigation usage while maintaining anonymity for participants.

Pilot Study Examining Spatial Differences in Water Quality Between Shoal and Channel Habitats

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | August 1st, 2019

Under the umbrella of the Nutrient Management Strategy (NMS; www.sfbaynutrients.sfei.org), we are investigating relationships between the SFB’s elevated nutrient levels

Under the umbrella of the Nutrient Management Strategy (NMS; www.sfbaynutrients.sfei.org), we are investigating relationships between the SFB’s elevated nutrient levels and phytoplankton production, with the goal of identifying protective nutrient loads and effective nutrient management options. To address these goals, NMS work includes continued ship-based monitoring (in collaboration with USGS); augmenting that monitoring with high-frequency sensor data and intensive field studies; and developing coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models -- calibrated using field observations -- to simulate water quality under a range of forcings.

Planned operation of large-scale water-distribution system

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | May 1st, 1995

A water-supply-distribution-system planning model has been developed using a directed graph algorithm as its pre- and post-processors and a linear programming (LP) proced

A water-supply-distribution-system planning model has been developed using a directed graph algorithm as its pre- and post-processors and a linear programming (LP) procedure as an “intelligent” system operator at its core. The directed graph, as a preprocessor, is used to produce a mathematical representation of the distribution system in question, to check the consistency and correctness of the network topology before an input file is created for the LP procedure. In the postprocessing mode, the directed graph generates files for graphical displays of model results and performs graph analyses such as depth- and breadth-first traversals, cut-set and connectivity for evaluating water-quality blending, tracking of source-to-demand contributions, system reliability, and lifeline objectives. Unlike the conventional formulation of a resource-allocation problem, the demand requirements, storage capacities, and other system constraints are removed from the constraint set and translated into a composite objective function. This methodology was successfully applied to the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California's (MWD's) distribution system. The results indicate that the combination of using an LP procedure and graph algorithm is a very versatile tool for solving large-scale water-distribution problems. This paper documents the concept used in developing the system-planning model and the results of its application to a simplified example as well as application to four case studies involving the entire MWD's distribution system.

Poleward shift of the major ocean gyres detected in a warming climate

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 24th, 2020

Recent evidence shows that wind‐driven ocean currents, like the western boundary currents, are strongly affected by global warming. However, due to insufficient observa

Recent evidence shows that wind‐driven ocean currents, like the western boundary currents, are strongly affected by global warming. However, due to insufficient observations both on temporal and spatial scales, the impact of climate change on large‐scale ocean gyres is still not clear. Here, based on satellite observations of sea surface height and sea surface temperature, we find a consistent poleward shift of the major ocean gyres. Due to strong natural variability, most of the observed ocean gyre shifts are not statistically significant, implying that natural variations may contribute to the observed trends. However, climate model simulations forced with increasing greenhouse gases suggest that the observed shift is most likely to be a response of global warming. The displacement of ocean gyres, which is coupled with the poleward shift of extratropical atmospheric circulation, has broad impacts on ocean heat transport, regional sea level rise and coastal ocean circulation.

Potential Impacts of Future Geological Storage of CO2 on the Groundwater Resources in California’s Central Valley: Southern San Joaquin Basin Oil and Gas Production Analog for Geologic Carbon Storage

California Energy Commission (CEC) | May 1st, 2013

This study investigated the potential impacts of the injection and storage of large quantities of carbon dioxide on shallow water resources in California’s southern San

This study investigated the potential impacts of the injection and storage of large quantities of carbon dioxide on shallow water resources in California’s southern San Joaquin Basin, including the possibility that if such injection was properly planned it might help mitigate the land subsidence impacts related to over-pumping of groundwater. The project used simulation studies to investigate whether the basin-scale pressure changes and brine displacement caused by future carbon dioxide storage in the deep sediments could impact the groundwater-surface water systems in the area. Two simulation models were developed. The Deep Basin Reservoir Simulation Model was developed for accurately simulating the multiphase processes of carbon dioxide and brine flow occurring in deep sequestration reservoirs. The Shallow Water Resources Impact Simulation Model was developed for accurately predicting the impact of deep carbon dioxide sequestration on a stressed water system, including evaluation of carbon dioxide-related impacts in the context of the long-term groundwater and subsidence trends occurring in the area as a result of other water stresses such as pumping and irrigation. The Deep Basin Reservoir Simulation Model showed that the caprock and overlying geological units had sufficient barrier attributes to prevent pressure propagation from the injection layer to the shallow aquifers. The Shallow Water Resources Impact Simulation Model simulation results showed that deep carbon dioxide injection would create only minor head change and surface uplift in the shallow model layers. Overall the simulation results suggested that even large carbon dioxide storage projects should have minimal impact on shallow groundwater and surface water systems if thick layers of shales and sands separated the deep CO2 injection layers from shallow aquifers. Researchers believed this study justified devoting resources to evaluating the potential impact from localized pathways or from induced seismicity to more thoroughly investigate the feasibility of carbon dioxide storage in the southern San Joaquin Basin. 

Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructu

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructure, and environment. As part of a set of studies on climate change impacts to California, this paper analyzes the potential impacts from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast (a “no-adaptation scenario”), focusing on impacts to the state’s population and infrastructure. Heberger et al. (2009) also covered effects on wetlands, costs of coastal defenses, and social and environmental justice related to sea-level rise. We analyzed the effect of a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea-level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315(5810): 368, 2007). Under this scenario, sea levels rise by 1.4 m by the year 2100, far exceeding historical observed water level increases. By the end of this century, coastal flooding would, under this scenario, threaten regions that currently are home to approximately 480,000 people and $100 billion worth of property. Among those especially vulnerable are large numbers of low-income people and communities of color. A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants will also be at risk. Sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of California’s coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially costly and life-threatening impacts of sea-level rise.

Potential Impacts of Reduced Inflows to the Salton Sea: Forecasting Non-market Damages

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | September 28th, 2022