North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought

Holocene (Sage Journals) | February 1st, 2006

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified using a combination of proxy data, historical accounts and a sparse collection of early instrumental records. In the USA, three distinct periods of widespread and persistent drought stand out in these records for the latter half of the nineteenth century: 1856-1865, 1870-1877 and 1890-1896. Each of these events is shown to coincide with the existence of an anomalously cool, La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. To examine the physical mechanisms behind these droughts two ensembles of simulations with an atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) were generated: the first forces an AGCM with the observed history of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) everywhere from 1856 to 2001 (the GOGA experiment), the second forces the AGCM only with tropical Pacific SSTs, being coupled to a two-layer entraining mixed layer (ML) ocean elsewhere (the POGA-ML experiment). Owing to a sparsity of instrumental precipitation data at this time, proxy evidence from tree rings is used as verification. A comparison of modelled soil moisture with tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a proxy for soil moisture, from the North American Drought Atlas is made. Both the POGA-ML and GOGA ensemble means capture the three multi-year droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century, indicating that the droughts were SST forced. The similarity of the POGA-ML and GOGA simulations implies that the component of each drought signal that is forced by the SST is driven ultimately by the La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. The global atmosphere-ocean context of each of the mid to late-nineteenth century droughts reveals a zonally and hemispherically symmetric pattern consistent with forcing from the tropics. In addition, Rossby wave propagation from the cooler equatorial Pacific amplifies dry conditions over the USA. Finally, using published coral data for the last millennium to reconstruct a NINO 3.4 history, the modern-day relationship between NINO 3.4 and North American drought is applied to recreate two of the severest Mediaeval ‘drought epochs’ in the western USA. The large-scale spatial similarity to the Drought Atlas data demonstrates the potential link between a colder eastern equatorial Pacific and the persistent North American droughts of the Mediaeval period.

Nutrient Chemistry in the Elizabeth Lake Subwatershed: Effects of Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems on Groundwater and Lake Water Quality, Los Angeles County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 16th, 2024

Nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] chemistry) down-gradient from onsite wastewater treatment system (OWTS) was evaluated with a groundwater study in the area surr

Nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] chemistry) down-gradient from onsite wastewater treatment system (OWTS) was evaluated with a groundwater study in the area surrounding Elizabeth Lake, the largest of three sag lakes within the Santa Clara River watershed of Los Angeles County, California. Elizabeth Lake is listed on the “303 (d) Impaired Waters List” for excess nutrients and is down-gradient from more than 600 OWTS. The primary objective of this study was to develop a conceptual hydrogeological model to determine if discharge from OWTS is transported into shallow groundwater within the Elizabeth Lake subwatershed and contributes nutrients to Elizabeth Lake in excess of the total maximum daily load limit.

On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 23rd, 2018

The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However

The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However, the rate at which the globally averaged precipitation increases is highly variable among different climate models. In this paper, we relate the intermodel variability in global water cycle intensification to differences in model projections of heavy precipitation in tropical and some extratropical regions. We also find that models consistently experience a trade‐off between increasing heavy and decreasing light‐moderate precipitation: Models with larger future increases in heavy precipitation exhibit greater compensating declines in light‐moderate rainfall. Differences in heavy precipitation changes are also tied to model resolution. Our study helps to provide new insight on the factors shaping projections of future precipitation extremes, which have strong implications for water resources, natural hazard risks associated with flooding, and ecosystem stability.

On the dynamics of the Hadley circulation and subtropical drying

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | April 10th, 2014

Changes in subtropical precipitation and the Hadley circulation (HC) are inextricably linked. The original Halley–Hadley model cannot explain certain aspects of the Ear

Changes in subtropical precipitation and the Hadley circulation (HC) are inextricably linked. The original Halley–Hadley model cannot explain certain aspects of the Earth’s meridional circulation in the tropics and is of limited use in understanding regional changes in precipitation. Here, we expand on previous work on the regional and seasonal aspects of the HC, in particular how land–sea temperature contrasts contribute to the strength and width of the HC. We show that the Earth’s HC is well described by three regionally distinct cells along the eastern edges of the major ocean basins with opposite circulations elsewhere. Moreover, comparable summertime hemisphere cells emerge in each region. While it has been recognized that continents modify the meridional pressure gradient, we demonstrate that a substantial part of the Earth’s HC is driven by zonal pressure gradients (ZPGs) that only exist due to continental heating and air–sea interaction. Projected changes in land–sea temperature contrasts in a warming climate due to the relatively low thermal capacity of land will also affect ZPGs and thus HC strength and width, with implications for extremes in hydroclimate and freshwater resources across the increasingly vulnerable subtropics.

On the Sources of Water Supply Forecast Error in Western Colorado

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 1st, 2023

One‐dimensional simulation of aquifer system compaction near Pixley, California: 1. Constant parameters

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 12th, 1975

Aggregate one‐dimensional compaction (consolidation) of a series of aquitards in a compacting aquifer system has been simulated through use of a finite difference repre

Aggregate one‐dimensional compaction (consolidation) of a series of aquitards in a compacting aquifer system has been simulated through use of a finite difference representation of the vertical stress distribution within an idealized aquitard. Among the parameters affecting the simulated compaction are two storage coefficients (compressibility values), one for recoverable and the other for nonrecoverable compression. These two storage coefficients introduce a transient heterogeneity within an aquitard that is generally ignored by hydrologists. A computer program with two sets of constant coefficients calculates the daily deformation due to observed changes in applied stress near Pixley, California. Although water levels fluctuate annually, no long‐term water level decline occurred near Pixley between January 1, 1959, and February 4, 1971. During this period, 3.19 ft (0.972 m) of compaction was observed. The net difference between simulated and observed compaction on February 4, 1971, was 1.3% of the observed value. Maximum deviation occurred in mid‐1964 and equaled 7% of the observed compaction.

Optimization of environmental water purchases with uncertainty

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | August 5th, 2006

Water managers are turning increasingly to market solutions to meet new environmental demands for water in fully allocated systems. This paper presents a three-stage pr

Water managers are turning increasingly to market solutions to meet new environmental demands for water in fully allocated systems. This paper presents a three-stage probabilistic optimization model that identifies least cost strategies for staged seasonal water purchases for an environmental water acquisition program given hydrologic, operational, and biological uncertainties. Multistage linear programming is used to minimize the expected cost of long-term, spot, and option water purchases used to meet uncertain environmental demands. Results prescribe the location, timing, and type of optimal water purchases and illustrate how least cost strategies change as information becomes available during the year. Results also provide sensitivity analysis, including shadow values that estimate the expected cost of additional dedicated environmental water. The model’s application to California’s Environmental Water Account is presented with a discussion of its utility for planning and policy purposes. Model limitations and sensitivity analysis are discussed, as are operational and research recommendations.

Over‐pumping leads to California groundwater arsenic threat

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 5th, 2018

Water resources are being challenged to meet domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. To complement finite surface water supplies that are being stressed b

Water resources are being challenged to meet domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. To complement finite surface water supplies that are being stressed by changes in precipitation and increased demand, groundwater is increasingly being used. Sustaining groundwater use requires considering both water quantity and quality. A unique challenge for groundwater use, as compared with surface water, is the presence of naturally occurring contaminants within aquifer sediments, which can enter the water supply. Here we find that recent groundwater pumping, observed through land subsidence, results in an increase in aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California. By comparison, historic groundwater pumping shows no link to current groundwater arsenic concentrations. Our results support the premise that arsenic can reside within pore water of clay strata within aquifers and is released due to overpumping. We provide a quantitative model for using subsidence as an indicator of arsenic concentrations correlated with groundwater pumping.

Paradise Regained: Solution for restoring Yosemite's Hetch Hetchy Valley

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) | July 15th, 2004

In this report Environmental Defense provides a planning-level analysis for replacing the water and hydropower benefits that the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir and O’Shaughness

In this report Environmental Defense provides a planning-level analysis for replacing the water and hydropower benefits that the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir and O’Shaughnessy Dam provide.We show how practical, proven water storage, conveyance and treatment alternatives can provide San Francisco a healthy, reliable and secure supply of water that is adequate for current and future needs.  We also explain how hydropower lost as a result of restoring the valley can be replaced without contributing to air pollution or global warming. The alternatives analyzed do not comprise all possible options, but they do demonstrate that workable solutions for restoring Hetch Hetchy Valley exist. We began this study with the premise that all solutions must be technologically feasible and affordable and must assure a dependable supply of safe drinking water. In addition to addressing the water and power needs of San Francisco and other Bay Area communities that rely on the Tuolumne River, solutions must also protect all affected California communities. Most obviously, any restoration plan must protect the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts, whose uses of the Tuolumne River predate and are intertwined with those of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) and its customers. Of course, a restoration plan must also consider the Groveland area, both as a user of the Tuolumne River water and as a gateway community to the Hetch Hetchy region of Yosemite National Park. Our analysis focuses mainly on alternative ways to move and store San Francisco’s existing supply of Tuolumne River water. Environmental Defense developed the TREWSSIM (Tuolumne River Equivalent Water Supply Simulation) model to evaluate the SFPUC’s system performance under a range of water supply alternatives, with and without Hetch Hetchy Reservoir.TREWSSIM incorporates features of both the SFPUC’s planning model HHSM-LSM and the state-federal CALSIM model. The TREWSSIM analysis addresses not only water supply issues, but also water treatment and hydropower. Three expert consultants assisted in our analysis: Schlumberger Water Services provided engineering analyses and modeling assistance; Eisenberg, Olivieri and Associates analyzed water quality issues; and Somach, Simmons  & Dunn assessed the legal landscape. Academic experts provided peer review. The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, the Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency, and the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts also provided information to help ensure an accurate report.

Paso Robles vineyard irrigation study provides benchmark data to assist future area groundwater management

California Agriculture (UCANR) | March 13th, 2018

Accurate information on irrigation water usage does not exist in many areas where groundwater is the primary water source. This lack of information will hinder

Accurate information on irrigation water usage does not exist in many areas where groundwater is the primary water source. This lack of information will hinder efforts to manage these groundwater basins sustainably according to current and future water regulations and policies. Using a low-cost methodology of irrigation-line pressure sensors connected to data loggers, we estimated irrigation applications at 84 vineyard sites in the Paso Robles Groundwater Basin over 4 years (2010–2013). We compared irrigation amounts with the preceding winter’s rainfall and with the growing season reference evapotranspiration (ETo). Over the study period, the average annual irrigation application was 11.46 inches (291 millimeters). The average annual application correlated inversely to the preceding winter’s rainfall, while the irrigation over the growing season (April–October) correlated directly with the ETo over this same period. This study provides an initial data framework that can be used by groundwater sustainability agencies to help manage groundwater in the Paso Robles area. The methodology also could be utilized in other regions to estimate regional irrigation usage while maintaining anonymity for participants.