Modeling Functional Flows in California’s Rivers

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Frontiers) | March 11th, 2022

Modeling guides groundwater management in a basin with river–aquifer interactions

California Agriculture (UCANR) | March 13th, 2018

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 seeks to maintain groundwater discharge to streams to support environmental goals. In Scott Valley, in Siskiyou

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 seeks to maintain groundwater discharge to streams to support environmental goals. In Scott Valley, in Siskiyou County, the Scott River and its tributaries are an important salmonid spawning habitat, and about 10% of average annual Scott River stream flow comes from groundwater. The local groundwater advisory committee is developing groundwater management alternatives that would increase summer and early fall stream flows. We developed a model to provide a framework to evaluate those alternatives. We first created a water budget for the Scott Valley groundwater basin and integrated the detailed, spatiotemporally distributed water budget results into a computer model of the basin that simultaneously accounted for groundwater flow, stream flow and landscape water fluxes. Different conceptual representations (using the MODFLOW RIV package and MODFLOW SFR package) of the stream–aquifer boundary provided significantly different results in the seasonal dynamics of groundwater–surface water fluxes. As groundwater sustainability agencies draw up plans to meet SGMA requirements, they must choose and test simulation tools carefully.

Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment

Land Use Policy (Elsevier) | November 1st, 2014

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a number of significant socio-ecological challenges. Here we present a novel spatially explicit model that allows better characterization of the extent and intensity of future housing settlements using three development scenarios between 2000 and 2050. We estimate that California’s exurban land classes will replace nearly 12 million acres of wild and agricultural lands. This will increase threats to ecosystems and those presented by wild fire, as the number of houses in ‘very high’ wildfire severity zones increases by nearly 1 million.

Modeling the effect of habitat availability and quality on endangered winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the Sacramento Valley

Ecological Modelling (Elsevier) | March 13th, 2021

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem h

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem health and valuation methods to predict ecosystem response to restoration actions. This process is particularly challenging for anadromous fish species such as California's Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, due to their limited geographic range and diverse life history habitat requirements. Tools, such as life-cycle models, are needed to manage population dynamics and quantify the composite effects of processes across space and time. Nevertheless, complex institutions can hinder result interpretation and communication, and limit model use in decision-making. This paper focuses on the federally endangered and endemic Sacramento River winter-run Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by developing a Winter-Run Habitat-based Population Model (WRHAP). WRHAP is a conceptual, freshwater rearing stage model that includes alternative rearing habitats reported in the literature (e.g., floodplains, off-channel and tributaries), defines rules of habitat use based on instream conditions, and incorporates a juvenile growth module that combines bioenergetics modeling with empirical growth rates. Model outputs reasonably follow observed out-migration patterns and provide a realistic smolt size distribution arriving at the San Francisco Bay. This effort demonstrates the importance of currently “non-critical” habitats (as defined by the Endangered Species Act) for juvenile development, with floodplain habitat contributing to a quarter of out-migrating biomass (despite < 18% availability and <10% of total rearing days), and off-channel growth being one of the most sensitive parameters (explaining ~13% of average juvenile weight variance). The model shows the utility of a simple population model to explore relationships between habitat quality/quantity and juvenile development, and to assist water/environmental management and decision-making processes focused on species recovery.

Modeling the impact of future rainfall changes on the effectiveness of urban stormwater control measures

Springer Nature | February 19th, 2024

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble of global climate models to drive a high spatial resolution stormwater model, we analyzed climate change impacts on urban stormwater runoff and control measures for 23 cities across the United States. Runoff model outputs for two future emissions scenarios ending in 2055 were compared against a historical scenario to assess changes. All cities showed increases in average annual stormwater runoff, with changes up to 30% over the next 30 years due to a greater frequency of high intensity storm events. Runoff model outputs showed substantial variation across cities with untreated stormwater runoff increasing by as much as 48%. Patterns of future runoff impacts within cities will affect the performance of distributed treatment strategies such as Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) to meet municipal water quality improvement and runoff reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption of adaptable design standards and decision support tools that readily accommodate projected precipitation changes are critical for supporting more resilient designs of stormwater control measures.

Mokelumne watershed avoided cost analysis: Why Sierra fuel treatments make economic sense

Sierra Nevada Conservancy | April 10th, 2014

High-severity wildfires in forests of California’s Sierra Nevada pose a serious threat to people and nature. Although proactive forest management can reduce the risk of

High-severity wildfires in forests of California’s Sierra Nevada pose a serious threat to people and nature. Although proactive forest management can reduce the risk of high-severity wildfire, the pace and scale of fuel treatments is insufficient, given the growing scope of the problem. Using the upper Mokelumne River watershed as a representative case, we sought to answer the following question: Does it make economic sense to increase investment in fuel treatments to reduce the risk of large, damaging wildfires? Our analysis suggests that the economic benefits of landscape- scale fuel-reduction treatments far outweigh the costs of wildfire. 

Monterey County Groundwater Management Plan

Monterey County Water Resources Agency (MCWRA) | May 17th, 2006

In 1992, California State Legislature adopted the Groundwater Management Act (California Water Code Part 2.7, §10753), originally enacted as Assembly Bill (AB) 3030 and

In 1992, California State Legislature adopted the Groundwater Management Act (California Water Code Part 2.7, §10753), originally enacted as Assembly Bill (AB) 3030 and amended by Senate Bill (SB) 1938 in 2002. The Groundwater Management Act provided the authority to prepare groundwater management plans and encouraged local agencies to work cooperatively to manage groundwater resources within their jurisdictions and groundwater basins. Monterey County Water Resources Agency (MCWRA), recognizing that management of its natural water resources is critical to ensuring a long-term sustainable and reliable good quality water supply, has prepared this Groundwater Management Plan (GWMP). The purpose of the GWMP is to provide a comprehensive overview of the Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin and to recommend various management strategies for the basin. Specifically, this document provides the framework for the management of groundwater resources in the Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin (exclusive of the Seaside and Paso Robles subareas) and acts as a guidance document for future groundwater projects. While this edition of the GWMP focuses on the Salinas Valley Groundwater Basin, MCWRA is responsible for the management of the water resources for all of Monterey County. Future GWMP versions will incorporate the additional groundwater basins in the County. This document has been prepared in accordance with existing regulations as outlined in the California Water Code (as referenced above) and was prepared in coordination with local agencies and interested residents through public outreach activities.

More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 7th, 2016

Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate. It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will

Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate. It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will amplify differences between dry and wet regions, but this has been disputed for changes over land. Furthermore, precipitation changes may differ not only between regions but also between different aspects of precipitation, such as totals and extremes. Here we investigate changes in these two aspects in the world’s dry and wet regions using observations and global climate models. Despite uncertainties in total precipitation changes, extreme daily precipitation averaged over both dry and wet regimes shows robust increases in both observations and climate models over the past six decades. Climate projections for the rest of the century show continued intensification of daily precipitation extremes. Increases in total and extreme precipitation in dry regions are linearly related to the model-specific global temperature change, so that the spread in projected global warming partly explains the spread in precipitation intensification in these regions by the late twenty-first century. This intensification has implications for the risk of flooding as the climate warms, particularly for the world’s dry regions.

Napa County Baseline Data Report, Chapter 16, Groundwater Hydrology

Napa County | November 30th, 2005

This chapter summarizes the basic groundwater hydrology of Napa County and documents the construction of a local integrated groundwater model. The groundwater hydrology a

This chapter summarizes the basic groundwater hydrology of Napa County and documents the construction of a local integrated groundwater model. The groundwater hydrology analysis and model development were designed to establish a baseline of existing conditions to support countywide programs.

National-Scale Flood Hazard Data Unfit for Urban Risk Management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 19th, 2024