Meteorological driving forces of reference evapotranspiration and their trends in California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | August 13th, 2022

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purp

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purpose, four main driving forces: air temperature, air humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed need to be measured over the well-watered reference grass. The relative influence of these driving forces is region and climate-specific, with daily and seasonal variations. A clear understanding of the dynamic interactions of ETo's driving factors can illuminate the water and energy cycles of the earth and assist modelers with more accurate predictions of ETo. In this study, Pearson correlation, mutual information, and random forest feature importance analyses have been used to evaluate the relative importance of meteorological driving forces of ETo in California. To better understand the interrelations of these variables, 1,365,823 daily data samples from 237 standardized weather stations for 36 years have been clustered into homogeneous climatic zones and analyzed. To compensate for the effects of seasonality, feature importance analysis is also conducted on seasonal and monthly clustered data. Moreover, seasonal and annual trends of ETo and its driving factors are investigated for California and homogeneous zones using the Mann-Kendall test. Our findings reveal that for annually clustered data, solar radiation is the most influential driving factor of ETo in California. However, analysis of seasonal and monthly clustered data shows that vapor pressure deficit is the most informative factor during the summer and spring, while solar radiation is more important during the colder seasons. Results of trend analysis don't suggest a consistent monotonic trend for ETo and other variables for different seasons and zones. However, it is shown that agricultural regions with heavy irrigation dependence like the Central Valley are getting warmer and drier, especially during the irrigation season. This can adversely affect the water resources, agriculture industry, and food production of California, and modeling efforts like this can be very informative for future water resources management.

Methodology for Flow and Salinity Estimates in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 15th, 2022

This is the 43rd annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by the Delta M

This is the 43rd annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by the Delta Modeling Section. This report is submitted annually to the State Water Resources Control Board pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1485, Term 9, which is still active pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1641, Term 8. This report documents progress in the development and enhancement of computer models for the Delta Modeling Section of the Bay-Delta Office. It also reports the latest findings of studies conducted as part of the program. This report was compiled under the direction of Nicky Sandhu, Program Manager for the Bay-Delta Evaluation Program.

Methodology for Flow and Salinity Estimates in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 1st, 2017

This is the 38th annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by t

This is the 38th annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by the Delta Modeling Section. This report is submitted annually by the section to the State Water Resources Control Board pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1485, Term 9, which is still active pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1641, Term 8. This report documents progress in the development and enhancement of computer models for the Delta Modeling Section of the Bay-Delta Office. It also reports the latest findings of studies conducted as part of the program. This report was compiled under the direction of Tara Smith, Program Manager for the Bay-Delta Evaluation Program.

Methodology for Flow and Salinity Estimates in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 1st, 2019

Various water resource management actions have been planned to protect and restore salmon populations for a healthy Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) ecosystem. Curren

Various water resource management actions have been planned to protect and restore salmon populations for a healthy Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) ecosystem. Currently, evaluating the effectiveness of these actions relies on field studies and/or expert opinion. Field studies can be costly and may not provide a comprehensive assessment for a range of applications because of limited study areas, durations, and river conditions. Expert opinion, although valuable, may under- or over-emphasize the importance of certain project components.  To supplement field studies and provide a quantitative assessment tool, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), in collaboration with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), developed an ecological modeling tool, ECO-PTM. ECO-PTM is an individual-based juvenile salmon migration model that is based on a random-walk particle-tracking method with fish-like behaviors attached to the particles. The behavioral parameters are estimated from acoustic telemetry tag data of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon (Tag Data) from various field studies (Perry et al. 2018). A stochastic optimization tool, Particle Swarm Optimization, is used to calibrate the swimming behavior parameters. ECO-PTM can simulate juvenile salmonid migration timing, routing, and survival.  This chapter describes ECO-PTM and its behavioral modules, and the model performance and applications to assist water resource management planning, assessment, and decision-making related to juvenile salmonid survival outcomes. 

Modeling Barriers and Levee-Break Effects on Delta-Wide Salinity

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | February 18th, 2016

Modeling Functional Flows in California’s Rivers

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Frontiers) | March 11th, 2022

Modeling guides groundwater management in a basin with river–aquifer interactions

California Agriculture (UCANR) | March 13th, 2018

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 seeks to maintain groundwater discharge to streams to support environmental goals. In Scott Valley, in Siskiyou

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 seeks to maintain groundwater discharge to streams to support environmental goals. In Scott Valley, in Siskiyou County, the Scott River and its tributaries are an important salmonid spawning habitat, and about 10% of average annual Scott River stream flow comes from groundwater. The local groundwater advisory committee is developing groundwater management alternatives that would increase summer and early fall stream flows. We developed a model to provide a framework to evaluate those alternatives. We first created a water budget for the Scott Valley groundwater basin and integrated the detailed, spatiotemporally distributed water budget results into a computer model of the basin that simultaneously accounted for groundwater flow, stream flow and landscape water fluxes. Different conceptual representations (using the MODFLOW RIV package and MODFLOW SFR package) of the stream–aquifer boundary provided significantly different results in the seasonal dynamics of groundwater–surface water fluxes. As groundwater sustainability agencies draw up plans to meet SGMA requirements, they must choose and test simulation tools carefully.

Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment

Land Use Policy (Elsevier) | November 1st, 2014

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a number of significant socio-ecological challenges. Here we present a novel spatially explicit model that allows better characterization of the extent and intensity of future housing settlements using three development scenarios between 2000 and 2050. We estimate that California’s exurban land classes will replace nearly 12 million acres of wild and agricultural lands. This will increase threats to ecosystems and those presented by wild fire, as the number of houses in ‘very high’ wildfire severity zones increases by nearly 1 million.

Modeling the effect of habitat availability and quality on endangered winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the Sacramento Valley

Ecological Modelling (Elsevier) | March 13th, 2021

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem h

Reconciliation between water uses and sustaining aquatic species populations requires an effort to identify and quantify essential habitat characteristics for ecosystem health and valuation methods to predict ecosystem response to restoration actions. This process is particularly challenging for anadromous fish species such as California's Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, due to their limited geographic range and diverse life history habitat requirements. Tools, such as life-cycle models, are needed to manage population dynamics and quantify the composite effects of processes across space and time. Nevertheless, complex institutions can hinder result interpretation and communication, and limit model use in decision-making. This paper focuses on the federally endangered and endemic Sacramento River winter-run Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by developing a Winter-Run Habitat-based Population Model (WRHAP). WRHAP is a conceptual, freshwater rearing stage model that includes alternative rearing habitats reported in the literature (e.g., floodplains, off-channel and tributaries), defines rules of habitat use based on instream conditions, and incorporates a juvenile growth module that combines bioenergetics modeling with empirical growth rates. Model outputs reasonably follow observed out-migration patterns and provide a realistic smolt size distribution arriving at the San Francisco Bay. This effort demonstrates the importance of currently “non-critical” habitats (as defined by the Endangered Species Act) for juvenile development, with floodplain habitat contributing to a quarter of out-migrating biomass (despite < 18% availability and <10% of total rearing days), and off-channel growth being one of the most sensitive parameters (explaining ~13% of average juvenile weight variance). The model shows the utility of a simple population model to explore relationships between habitat quality/quantity and juvenile development, and to assist water/environmental management and decision-making processes focused on species recovery.

Modeling the impact of future rainfall changes on the effectiveness of urban stormwater control measures

Springer Nature | February 19th, 2024

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble of global climate models to drive a high spatial resolution stormwater model, we analyzed climate change impacts on urban stormwater runoff and control measures for 23 cities across the United States. Runoff model outputs for two future emissions scenarios ending in 2055 were compared against a historical scenario to assess changes. All cities showed increases in average annual stormwater runoff, with changes up to 30% over the next 30 years due to a greater frequency of high intensity storm events. Runoff model outputs showed substantial variation across cities with untreated stormwater runoff increasing by as much as 48%. Patterns of future runoff impacts within cities will affect the performance of distributed treatment strategies such as Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) to meet municipal water quality improvement and runoff reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption of adaptable design standards and decision support tools that readily accommodate projected precipitation changes are critical for supporting more resilient designs of stormwater control measures.