Mapping Structural Control Through Analysis of Land-Surface Deformation for the Rialto-Colton Groundwater Subbasin, San Bernardino County, California, 1992–2010

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 29th, 2022

The locations of many faults in and near the Rialto-Colton groundwater subbasin are not precisely known because the spatial density of existing lithologic and hydrologic

The locations of many faults in and near the Rialto-Colton groundwater subbasin are not precisely known because the spatial density of existing lithologic and hydrologic data used to infer the locations of faults can be sparse. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District, analyzed structural control of groundwater flow in and near the Rialto-Colton groundwater subbasin using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) methods. Faults commonly are barriers to groundwater flow, and the high spatial resolution of InSAR imagery can be used to infer the locations of buried faults where groundwater pumping occurs. InSAR results have revealed three areas in and near the Rialto-Colton groundwater subbasin where buried faults are interpreted as groundwater-flow barriers: the northwestern area about 3 miles northwest of the City of Rialto, the San Jacinto fault area west of the City of San Bernardino, and the southeastern area about 2 miles southeast of the City of Colton. The InSAR results were combined with knowledge gained from previous studies to better define the location and extent of faults acting as groundwater-flow barriers. New data about faults acting as groundwater-flow barriers can be incorporated into future conceptual and hydrologic models of the Rialto-Colton groundwater subbasin and provide water managers information to help effectively manage groundwater resources.

Mark/Recapture Experiments at Clifton Court Forebay to Estimate Pre-Screening Loss to Juvenile Fishes: 1976-1993

California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) | September 30th, 1997

From October 1976 through November 1993, the California Department of Fish and Game conducted mark/recapture experiments at Clifton Court Forebay, designed to estimate pr

From October 1976 through November 1993, the California Department of Fish and Game conducted mark/recapture experiments at Clifton Court Forebay, designed to estimate pre-screen loss to entrained juvenile fishes. Ten studies were conducted; eight evaluated losses to hatchery-reared juvenile chinook salmon, and two evaluated losses to hatchery-reared juvenile striped bass. Pre-screen loss was calculated from the proportion of marked fish released at the radial gates that were subsequently recaptured during salvage operations at Skinner Fish Facility. The proportion was adjusted for handling mortality, fish facility louver effiCiency, and any subsampling at the facility. Studies were conducted across a wide range of environmental conditions and State Water Project operations, with a wide range in the size ofexperimental fish. Pre-screen loss estimates for juvenile chinook salmon were 63-99%. Potential biases in estimates of pre-screen loss may be due to (1) the calculation for pre-screen loss, (2) underrepresentative and over-representative salvage of experimental fish at Skinner Fish Facility, and (3) the introduction of experimental fish directly into Clifton Court Forebay. A multiple-regression analysis of pre-screen loss to juvenile salmon showed that 91% of the variance in pre-screen loss can be explained by export rate, experimental fish size, and water temperature. 

Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | October 16th, 2019

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this precipitation response can be explained by El Niño’s spatial pattern, rather than internal atmospheric variability. In addition, observations and large-ensembles of regional and global climate model simulations indicate that extremes in seasonal and daily precipitation during strong El Niño events are better explained using the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which captures the diversity of ENSO’s spatial patterns in a single metric, compared to the traditional Niño3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in a fixed region and therefore fails to capture ENSO diversity. The physically-based ELI better explains western US precipitation variability because it tracks the zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection that drive teleconnections through the response in the extratropical wave-train, integrated vapor transport, and atmospheric rivers. This research provides evidence that ELI improves the value of ENSO as a predictor of California’s seasonal hydroclimate extremes compared to traditional ENSO indices, especially during strong El Niño events.

Mean and Extreme Climate Change Impacts on the State Water Project

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 27th, 2018

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks t

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks to California’s State Water Project (SWP) and federal Central Valley Project (CVP). This study uses the California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) newly developed water planning model, CalSim 3.0, as a risk assessment tool. Impacts were assessed for 20 climate change scenarios (10 global climate models and two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Water supply and water quality metrics evaluated include Delta exports, North of Delta Carryover storage, reservoir dead storage (i.e. when reservoir levels fall below the lowest outlets), and Delta salinity. Results for the driest future scenario were also analyzed to examine future drought impacts. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests were implemented to assess individual impacts of four climate change factors: flow seasonal pattern shift, sea level rise, annual flow volume change, and water demand change on the State Water Project and Central Valley Project operations. It was found that flow seasonal pattern shift will become a major climate change factor and sea level rise a secondary factor, leading to a half million‐acre feet of Delta export reduction as well as a roughly 25% decrease of North‐of‐Delta carryover storage by around 2060. The results also indicate that the extra runoff from early snow melting and higher percentage of rain in the winter and early spring is not conserved in reservoirs and thus cannot be used to meet the higher summer demand in the current SWP/CVP system. This extra water is released as flood water in the winter and early spring to become Delta outflow.

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 4th, 2022

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.

Meteorological driving forces of reference evapotranspiration and their trends in California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | August 13th, 2022

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purp

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purpose, four main driving forces: air temperature, air humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed need to be measured over the well-watered reference grass. The relative influence of these driving forces is region and climate-specific, with daily and seasonal variations. A clear understanding of the dynamic interactions of ETo's driving factors can illuminate the water and energy cycles of the earth and assist modelers with more accurate predictions of ETo. In this study, Pearson correlation, mutual information, and random forest feature importance analyses have been used to evaluate the relative importance of meteorological driving forces of ETo in California. To better understand the interrelations of these variables, 1,365,823 daily data samples from 237 standardized weather stations for 36 years have been clustered into homogeneous climatic zones and analyzed. To compensate for the effects of seasonality, feature importance analysis is also conducted on seasonal and monthly clustered data. Moreover, seasonal and annual trends of ETo and its driving factors are investigated for California and homogeneous zones using the Mann-Kendall test. Our findings reveal that for annually clustered data, solar radiation is the most influential driving factor of ETo in California. However, analysis of seasonal and monthly clustered data shows that vapor pressure deficit is the most informative factor during the summer and spring, while solar radiation is more important during the colder seasons. Results of trend analysis don't suggest a consistent monotonic trend for ETo and other variables for different seasons and zones. However, it is shown that agricultural regions with heavy irrigation dependence like the Central Valley are getting warmer and drier, especially during the irrigation season. This can adversely affect the water resources, agriculture industry, and food production of California, and modeling efforts like this can be very informative for future water resources management.

Methodology for Flow and Salinity Estimates in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 15th, 2022

This is the 43rd annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by the Delta M

This is the 43rd annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by the Delta Modeling Section. This report is submitted annually to the State Water Resources Control Board pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1485, Term 9, which is still active pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1641, Term 8. This report documents progress in the development and enhancement of computer models for the Delta Modeling Section of the Bay-Delta Office. It also reports the latest findings of studies conducted as part of the program. This report was compiled under the direction of Nicky Sandhu, Program Manager for the Bay-Delta Evaluation Program.

Methodology for Flow and Salinity Estimates in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 1st, 2017

This is the 38th annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by t

This is the 38th annual progress report of the California Department of Water Resources’ San Francisco Bay-Delta Evaluation Program, which is carried out by the Delta Modeling Section. This report is submitted annually by the section to the State Water Resources Control Board pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1485, Term 9, which is still active pursuant to its Water Right Decision D-1641, Term 8. This report documents progress in the development and enhancement of computer models for the Delta Modeling Section of the Bay-Delta Office. It also reports the latest findings of studies conducted as part of the program. This report was compiled under the direction of Tara Smith, Program Manager for the Bay-Delta Evaluation Program.

Methodology for Flow and Salinity Estimates in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 1st, 2019

Various water resource management actions have been planned to protect and restore salmon populations for a healthy Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) ecosystem. Curren

Various water resource management actions have been planned to protect and restore salmon populations for a healthy Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) ecosystem. Currently, evaluating the effectiveness of these actions relies on field studies and/or expert opinion. Field studies can be costly and may not provide a comprehensive assessment for a range of applications because of limited study areas, durations, and river conditions. Expert opinion, although valuable, may under- or over-emphasize the importance of certain project components.  To supplement field studies and provide a quantitative assessment tool, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), in collaboration with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), developed an ecological modeling tool, ECO-PTM. ECO-PTM is an individual-based juvenile salmon migration model that is based on a random-walk particle-tracking method with fish-like behaviors attached to the particles. The behavioral parameters are estimated from acoustic telemetry tag data of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon (Tag Data) from various field studies (Perry et al. 2018). A stochastic optimization tool, Particle Swarm Optimization, is used to calibrate the swimming behavior parameters. ECO-PTM can simulate juvenile salmonid migration timing, routing, and survival.  This chapter describes ECO-PTM and its behavioral modules, and the model performance and applications to assist water resource management planning, assessment, and decision-making related to juvenile salmonid survival outcomes. 

Modeling Barriers and Levee-Break Effects on Delta-Wide Salinity

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | February 18th, 2016