Landscape Patterns and Processes of the McCormack-Williamson Tract and Surrounding Area: A framework for restoring a resilient and functional landscape

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | March 25th, 2013

This report uses a reconstruction of the historical (early 19th century) Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta landscape in concert with contemporary data to elucidate restoration

This report uses a reconstruction of the historical (early 19th century) Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta landscape in concert with contemporary data to elucidate restoration opportunities and constraints at the McCormack-Williamson Tract and within the surrounding Delta setting. Historical ecology encourages a landscape-level perspective of restoration through improved understanding of how physical processes created and maintained habitat mosaics in the recent past. This perception of landscapes can be used to evaluate current conditions and develop future restoration scenarios. We used the recently completed study of the historical Delta landscape (Whipple et al. 2012) to explore opportunities for the McCormack-Williamson Tract (MWT), a 1,645 acre (6.6 km2) tract along the Mokelumne River (Figure 1 and Figure 2). This site exemplifies the need to balance contemporary constraints to restoration (including existing infrastructure and flood protection concerns) with the goals of landscape-scale restoration. To explore some of the strategies and opportunities available to advance the landscape-scale restoration in the MWT area, three general concepts emerged: increasing landscape complexity, connectivity, and resilience. To understand how to interpret and improve these attributes, we developed conceptual models that placed the site within the larger landscapes of the historical Delta, relating local habitat features to regional controlling physical gradients. This aided interpretation of the contemporary physical landscape and allowed identification of opportunities and constraints to both short-term and long-term landscape-scale restoration. The historical record reveals features such as floodplain lakes, forests on natural river levees, and tidal channels in the study area. These and other features could be strategically incorporated into a restoration vision, or an “operational landscape unit” for this part of the Delta (Verhoeven et al. 2008). This type of perspective can help focus restoration targets, including the relative proportion and placement of different habitat types and landscape elements within project design constraints, maximizing the site’s ecological potential. The landscape-scale approach also identifies opportunities to improve ecological connectivity and long-term adaptability to sea level rise and other environmental changes. Some of these opportunities may be critical to the ecological function and resilience of the area, but may not be able to be addressed in the immediate MWT project design. Thus, a central component of translating a historical landscape perspective to site-scale design is envisioning an adaptable restoration process that spans short-term restoration actions that are possible within the site’s bounds, while maintaining a longer-term vision of what is needed at the landscape scale.

Landslide-channel feedbacks amplify channel widening during floods

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 24th, 2025

Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 17th, 2020

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogen

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.

Large Landscape Urban Irrigation: A Data‐Driven Approach to Evaluate Conservation Behavior

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 30th, 2019

Do businesses, multifamily residences, and homeowners associations irrigate differently than single‐family residences? Do customers who have recycled water irrigate di

Do businesses, multifamily residences, and homeowners associations irrigate differently than single‐family residences? Do customers who have recycled water irrigate differently than if they have potable water? How does water use change during drought and under different policy regimes? Is neighborhood affluence related to conservation behavior by nonresidential irrigation customers? These questions are all important for water managers planning how much water they need when and where, in the present and in the future. In this paper, we statistically investigated and modeled water use in a case study service area to examine how water demand for nonresidential large landscapes changed during a historic drought. The findings of this paper can help water managers understand urban water use behavior, which is useful for supply planning, targeting conservation efforts, and optimizing infrastructure investment.

Lessons from Immersive Online Collaborative Modeling to Discuss More Adaptive Reservoir Operations

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | April 26th, 2024

Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies (Elsevier) | March 9th, 2022

Study Region: We created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region

Study Region: We created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region is undergoing a dramatic reorganization of groundwater management under California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). Study Focus: Understanding land-use and land-cover change supports long-term sustainable water management. Anthropogenic water demand has depleted groundwater aquifers worldwide, while future water shortages will likely affect land-use change, creating system feedbacks. Our novel participatory approach fused changes in land-use and associated water use from county-scale data to local water agencies’ estimates of total sustainable supply, scaling up local hydro-geologic knowledge from heterogeneous aquifers and diverse management approaches to a regional level. We assessed five stakeholder-driven scenarios with the same historic rates of urban and agricultural land-use change, but different water and land-use management, analyzing how management strategies altered both the spatial pattern of development and subsequent water sustainability from 2001 to 2061. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Transformative strategies using demand-side interventions that coupled water availability to land use more effectively achieved long-term sustainability than adaptive strategies using supply-side interventions to increase water supplies. Limiting water withdrawals within SGMA regulated basins resulted in leakage of development into unregulated basins, increasing groundwater pumping there. Protecting ecosystems, farmlands, and recharge areas from development reduced leakage into undeveloped basins without negatively affecting water sustainability.

Linking river management to species conservation using dynamic landscape-scale models

River Research and Applications (Wiley) | March 23rd, 2012

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data to characterize stream segments with respect to channel size, confinement, position and connectedness within the stream network. Simulated streamflow dynamics are then applied to model fish metapopulation dynamics in stream segments, using hypothesized effects of streamflow magnitude and variability on population processes, conditioned by channel characteristics. The resulting time series simulate spatially explicit, annual changes in species occurrences or assemblage metrics (e.g. species richness) across the catchment as outcomes of management scenarios. Sensitivity analyses using alternative, plausible links between streamflow components and metapopulation processes, or allowing for alternative modes of fish dispersal, demonstrate large effects of ecological uncertainty on model outcomes and highlight needed research and monitoring. Nonetheless, with uncertainties explicitly acknowledged, dynamic, landscape-scale simulations may prove useful for quantitatively comparing river management alternatives with respect to species conservation.

Local and synoptic mechanisms causing Southern California’s Santa Ana winds

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | August 25th, 2009

The cool, moist fall and winter climate in Southern Cali- fornia is often disrupted by dry, hot days with strong winds blowing out of the desert. These ‘‘Santa Ana’

The cool, moist fall and winter climate in Southern Cali- fornia is often disrupted by dry, hot days with strong winds blowing out of the desert. These ‘‘Santa Ana’’ winds are a dominant feature of the fall and wintertime climate of Southern California (Conil and Hall 2006), and have important human and ecological impacts. First, and most pronounced, is their effect on wildfires: following the hot, dry summer, the extremely low relative humidities and gusty strong winds that occur during Santa Anas introduce extreme fire risk which often culminates in wildfires with large economic loss.

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 3.2 Hydrologic Modeling Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | December 3rd, 2013

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on t

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (LA Basin Study). The purpose of the LA Basin Study is to investigate long-range water conservation and flood control impacts caused by projected changes in climate conditions and population in the Los Angeles region. The LA Basin Study will recommend potential modifications or changes in the operation of the existing stormwater capture systems, and the development of new facilities that could help resolve future water supply and flood control issues. These recommendations will be developed by identifying alternatives and conducting trade-off analyses. For Task 3, Downscaled Climate Change and Hydrologic Modeling of the LA Basin Study, Reclamation developed downscaled climate change projections, while LACFCD applied these projections to generate the future hydrology. LACFCD utilized the Watershed Management Modeling System (WMMS) to perform the hydrologic modeling for the LA Basin Study. This report summarizes the data, methods, and results of the historic and future hydrologic modeling. The purpose of Task 3.2, Hydrologic Modeling is to simulate hydrology with respect to climate change for the Los Angeles River, San Gabriel River, Ballona Creek, South Santa Monica Bay, North Santa Monica Bay, Malibu Creek, and Dominguez Channel/Los Angeles Harbor watersheds (Basin Study Watersheds). This study incorporates the entire watershed boundaries, including where they extend outside of Los Angeles County. The following sub-tasks were identified to achieve this objective: Historic Hydrologic Modeling (Water Year 1987 through 2000) Determine baseline scenario modeling assumptions Prepare WMMS to simulate baseline scenario Perform WMMS baseline simulations Analyze and summarize WMMS results Projected Hydrologic Modeling (Water Year 2012 through 2095) Determine future scenario modeling assumptions Prepare WMMS to simulate future scenarios Perform WMMS simulations Analyze and summarize WMMS results

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 4 Existing Infrastructure Response & Operations Guidelines Analysis

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | September 1st, 2014

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los A

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (LA Basin Study). The purpose of the LA Basin Study is to investigate long-range water conservation and flood risk impacts caused by projected changes in climate conditions and population in the Los Angeles region. The LA Basin Study will recommend potential modifications or changes in the operation of the existing stormwater capture systems as well as the development of new facilities that could help resolve future water supply and flood risk issues. These recommendations will be developed by identifying alternatives and conducting trade-off analyses.  For Task 4, Existing Infrastructure Response and Operations Guidelines Analysis of the LA Basin Study, Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the LACFCD jointly analyzed the major components of the water conservation and flood risk mitigation system. For the analysis, Reclamation assessed the 14 major LACFCD dams and reservoirs, USACE analyzed their 4 major flood control dams in the region, and LACFCD assessed the 26 major spreading grounds interconnected to the water conservation system. The LACFCD also evaluated 5 major channel outlets. This report summarizes the data, methods, and results of the existing infrastructure response to the historic climate and future projections.  The purpose of Task 4 is to assess the response of existing infrastructure and analyze the operation guidelines under both the current and future climate conditions. It is important to recognize that this effort relies upon the existing configuration of the water conservation and flood risk mitigation network as the baseline condition.  This evaluation includes a ranking assessment of the current and future stormwater volumes conserved or discharged, and other impacts to the water conservation and flood risk mitigation system. The following sub-tasks were identified to conduct this assessment:  Response to Current Climate (Water Year 1987 through 2000)  Analyze stormwater volumes conserved or discharged Analyze infrastructure response and operations guidelines  Response to Future Climate (Water Year 2012 through 2095) Analyze stormwater volumes conserved or discharged Analyze infrastructure response and operations guidelines The response to the current climate provided a representation of the existing situation and revealed how the existing infrastructure could reasonably be expected to perform under a historical climate to which the region has become accustomed. However, this may not be the case in the future. The response to future climate assessed the existing infrastructure under varying climate conditions to understand if it would function satisfactorily. This analysis of the existing infrastructure served as a status quo assessment of historical conditions as well as a “no action” evaluation of the future.  After the analysis of the historic and future climate conditions, an assessment was conducted for the system of dams and spreading ground facilities. A water conservation ranking—or performance level—was developed to assess the overall efficiency and resilience of the facilities to both the historic and projected future climate. Although results are assigned to the individual 18 dams/reservoirs and 26 spreading grounds, each facility was analyzed within the entire system. The dams and spreading grounds were ranked according to their performance with respect to one another; these rankings were used to develop the Task 4 performance levels.  Generally, facilities that were the least efficient resulted in being the least resilient to climate change and were assigned Performance Level III which has a high potential for enhancements. Facilities that were generally more efficient were more resilient to climate change and were assigned Performance Level II. Finally, facilities that were the most efficient tended to be the most resilient to climate change and were assigned to Performance Level I.  For the channel outlet analysis, assessment levels were developed to determine which of the five major channel outlets have the highest potential for increasing stormwater capture and reducing runoff to the Pacific Ocean. The ability to reduce the stormwater runoff that is lost to the ocean and capture it would greatly boost the potential stormwater supply in this region. The Task 4 analysis assigned assessment levels to the 5 major channel outlets and their respective watersheds.  The Los Angeles River ranked into Assessment Level III indicating that this watershed has the greatest potential for increasing stormwater supplies and should be targeted for future enhancements. For the remaining outlets, although these locations were found to have lower discharge volumes, additional capture efforts should still be targeted within these watersheds to further increase stormwater capture and improve local water supplies.