Economic consequences of optimized water management for a prolonged, severe drought in California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 21st, 2010

If abrupt climate change has occurred in the past and may be more likely under human forcing, it is relevant to look at the adaptability of current infrastructure system

If abrupt climate change has occurred in the past and may be more likely under human forcing, it is relevant to look at the adaptability of current infrastructure systems to severe conditions of the recent past. Geologic evidence suggests two extreme droughts in California during the last few thousand years, each 120–200 years long, with mean annual streamflows 40%–60% of the historical mean. This study synthesized a 72-year drought with half of mean historical inflows using random sampling of historical dry years. One synthetic hydrological record is used, and sensitivity to different interpretations of the paleo record is not evaluated. Economic effects and potential adaptation of California’s water supply system in 2020 to this drought is explored using a hydro-economic optimization model. The model considers how California could respond to such an extreme drought using water trading and provides best‐case estimates of economic costs and effects on water operations and demands. Results illustrate the ability of extensive, intertied, and flexible water systems with heterogeneous water demands to respond to severe stress. The study follows a different approach to climate change impact studies, focusing on past climate changes from the paleorecord rather than downscaled general circulation model results to provide plausible hydrologic scenarios. Adaptations suggested for the sustained drought are similar for dry forms of climate warming in California and are expensive but not catastrophic for the overall economy but would impose severe burdens on the agricultural sector and environmental water uses.

Economic-engineering optimization for California water management

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | May 15th, 2003

An economic-engineering optimization model of California’s major water supply system is presented. The model’s development, calibration, limitations, and resu

An economic-engineering optimization model of California’s major water supply system is presented. The model’s development, calibration, limitations, and results are reviewed. The major methodological conclusions are that large-scale water resources optimization models driven by economic objective functions are both possible and practical; deterministic models are useful despite their limitations; and data management, reconciliation, and documentation are important benefits of large-scale system modeling. Specific results for California indicate a great potential for water markets and conjunctive use to improve economic performance and significant economic value for expanding some conveyance facilities. Overall, economic-engineering optimization even if deterministic can suggest a variety of promising approaches for managing large systems. These approaches can then be refined and tested using more detailed simulation models. The process of developing large-scale models also motivates the systematic and integrated treatment of surface water, groundwater, facility, and water demand data, and identification of particularly important data problems, something of long-term value for all types of water resources analysis.

Effects of Groundwater Pumping on Agricultural Drains in the Tule Lake Subbasin, Oregon and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 24th, 2015

Since 2001, irrigators in the upper Klamath Basin have increasingly turned to groundwater to compensate for reductions in surface-water allocation caused by shifts from

Since 2001, irrigators in the upper Klamath Basin have increasingly turned to groundwater to compensate for reductions in surface-water allocation caused by shifts from irrigation use to instream flows for Endangered Species Act listed fishes. The largest increase in groundwater pumping has been in and around the Bureau of Reclamation’s Klamath Irrigation Project, which includes the Tule Lake subbasin in the southern part of the upper Klamath Basin. Agricultural drains on the Klamath Project are an important source of water for downstream irrigators and for the Tule Lake and Lower Klamath Lake National Wildlife Refuges. U.S. Geological Survey regional groundwater-flow model simulations and records of irrigation-return flow pumped from the Tule Lake subbasin into the adjacent Lower Klamath Lake subbasin have indicated that water-level declines from pumping may be causing decreased flow of shallow groundwater to agricultural drains. To better define the effect of increased pumping on drain flow and on the water balance of the groundwater system, the annual water volume pumped from drains in three subareas of the Tule Lake subbasin was estimated and a fine-grid, local groundwater model of the Tule Lake subbasin was constructed. Results of the agricultural-drain flow analysis indicate that groundwater discharge to drains has decreased such that flows in 2012 were approximately 32,400 acre-ft less than the 1997–2000 average flow. This decrease was concentrated in the northern and southeastern parts of the subbasin, which corresponds with the areas of greatest groundwater pumping. Model simulation results of the Tule Lake subbasin groundwater model indicate that increased supplemental pumping is the dominant stress to the groundwater system in the subbasin. Simulated supplemental pumping and decreased recharge from irrigation between 2000 and 2010 totaled 323,573 acre-ft, 234,800 acre-ft (73 percent) of which was from supplemental pumping. The response of the groundwater system to this change in stress included about 180,500 acre-ft (56 percent) of decreased groundwater discharge to drains and a 126,000 acre-ft (39 percent) reduction in aquifer storage. The remaining 5 percent came from reduced groundwater flow to other model boundaries, including the Lost River, the Tule Lake sumps, and interbasin flow.

Effects of Tidal Wetland Restoration on Fish: A Suite of Conceptual Models

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | November 2nd, 2017

Fishes native to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh have historically had access to a complex mosaic of dendritic channels, large tule marshes, floodplain

Fishes native to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh have historically had access to a complex mosaic of dendritic channels, large tule marshes, floodplains, and riparian woodlands. After the Gold Rush, that habitat was rapidly and drastically altered, and today several native fish species occur in record low numbers. Although many other stressors also contributed to population declines, habitat restoration is a major component of strategies to reverse the trend. Programs such as the Fish Restoration Program particularly emphasize restoration of tidal wetlands and associated shallow subtidal habitat and strive to restore and learn in an adaptive management context. Conceptual models, therefore, are necessary to plan both the restoration and the monitoring and evaluation of restoration actions.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 7th, 2017

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty i

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Empirical Models of Shallow Groundwater and Multi-Hazard Flood Forecasts as Sea-Levels Rise

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 8th, 2025

Knowledge of coastal hydrogeology and hazards as groundwater responds to sea-level rise (SLR) can be improved through installation of shallow groundwater monitoring piezo

Knowledge of coastal hydrogeology and hazards as groundwater responds to sea-level rise (SLR) can be improved through installation of shallow groundwater monitoring piezometers and continuous observations. Interpolation of site data enables mapping of the present-day state of groundwater elevation, depth to groundwater (DTW), their temporal statistical variation, and differing spatial responses to tides and rainfall. Future DTW and its variability can be projected under increments of SLR, with assumptions and caveats, to show where and when episodic and/or permanent inundation can be expected. This methodology is outlined in a case study of Dunedin, New Zealand, which enabled comparison of rising groundwater's contribution to pluvial flooding and groundwater emergence with coastal inundation. Changes in relative land exposure with SLR shows evolution in flood hazard from current pluvial-dominated events, into “flooding from below” and groundwater emergence, in advance of any overland coastal inundation. Dunedin exemplifies how groundwater transfers effects of SLR surprisingly far inland, but the lowest-lying or shoreline-proximal suburbs are not necessarily the most vulnerable. Unlike coastal inundation, rising groundwater is unconstrained by protective topography and presents as a creeping hazard, or contributor to hazards such as pluvial flooding, which can be widespread, occurring already and difficult to defend against. The empirical models contain assumptions and uncertainties important to the veracity of results and application. While conservative (“risk averse”) and a compromise from computationally expensive numerical solutions, their value is in providing the spatial and temporal precision needed for multi-source hazard assessment and holistic adaptive planning.

Enhancements to EcoAtlas’ CRAM analysis tools: Habitat Development Curves and Ecoregional Cumulative Distribution Function plots (CDFs)

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | April 5th, 2016

Erosion and Sediment Manual

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | June 4th, 2017

Engineers in the Bureau of Reclamation's Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group provide technical assistance and conduct studies to meet the needs of other Reclamation

Engineers in the Bureau of Reclamation's Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group provide technical assistance and conduct studies to meet the needs of other Reclamation offices and of domestic and international water resources agencies. In addition to using the latest state-of-the art technology, engineers in the Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group often have to develop new technology, methods, and computer programs for solving erosion, sedimentation, and river hydraulic problems. All the authors of the Erosion and Sedimentation Manual are members of the Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group. Information, computer programs, and materials included in the manual are based on proven technology existing in the literature and some of them were developed by the authors for solving practical engineering problems. The objectives of writing this manual are twofold: to summarize the authors' experience and knowledge and to share with the public what they have learned and used in solving erosion and sedimentation problems. The Erosion and Sedimentation Manual is intended for engineers with basic background and knowledge in open channel hydraulics, sediment transport, and river morphology. The manual can also be used as a reference book for university professors, graduate students, and researchers for solving practical engineering problems. This manual contains nine chapters and three appendices. Each chapter is self-contained, with an introduction, summary, and a list of references. Cross references are made to avoid duplications of materials in different chapters. Basic theories, concepts, and approaches in erosion, sediment transport, river morphology, computer modeling, and field survey are reviewed and summarized in the manual. Examples are used to illustrate how to use the methods and programs contained in the manual.

Estimated Ground-Water Withdrawals from the Death Valley Regional Flow System

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2003

Estimating evapotranspiration change due to forest treatment and fire at the basin scale in the Sierra Nevada, California: Forest Disturbance and Evapotranspiration Change

Ecohydrology (Wiley) | April 6th, 2018

We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of forest evapotranspiration (ET) decreases resulting from forest‐thinning treatments and wildfire in west‐slope

We investigated the potential magnitude and duration of forest evapotranspiration (ET) decreases resulting from forest‐thinning treatments and wildfire in west‐slope watersheds of the Sierra Nevada range in California, USA, using a robust empirical relation between Landsat‐derived mean‐annual normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and ET measured at flux towers. Among forest treatments, the minimum observed NDVI change required to produce a significant departure from control plots with NDVI of about 0.70 was −0.09 units, corresponding to a basal‐area reduction of 29.1 m2/ha (45% reduction) and equivalent to an estimated ET reduction of 153 mm/year (21% change; approximate mean annual precipitation = 1,000 mm). Intensive thinning in highly productive forests that approached prefire‐exclusion densities reduced basal area by 40–50%, generating estimated ET reductions of 153–218 mm/year (21–27% change) over 5 years following treatment. Low‐intensity underburn treatments resulted in no significant change in ET. Examining the cumulative impact of wildfires on ET between 1990 and 2008, we found that the lower and wetter American River basin (5,310 km2) generated more than twice the ET reduction per unit area than those in the higher and drier Kings River basin (4,790 km2), corresponding to greater water and energy limitations in the latter and greater fire severity in the former. A rough extrapolation of these results to the entire American River watershed suggests that ET reductions due to forest thinning by wildfire could approach 10% of full natural flows for dry years and 5% over all years.