Ecological implications of modeled hydrodynamic changes in the upper San Francisco Estuary

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 3rd, 2016

The physical and ecological environment of the upper San Francisco Estuary has been profoundly altered since the early 1800s. Recent efforts have utilized maps of the upp

The physical and ecological environment of the upper San Francisco Estuary has been profoundly altered since the early 1800s. Recent efforts have utilized maps of the upper estuary’s historical habitat types to infer associated changes in desired ecosystem processes and functions. The work presented in this memo builds on these previous efforts, but utilizes a new tool for evaluating change over time: a 3D hydrodynamic model of the pre-development estuary. This model was constructed by Resource Management Associates (RMA) using a new digital elevation model of the pre-development upper estuary generated by SFEI and UC Davis (UCD) and “natural” boundary flows calculated by the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Once completed and calibrated, the pre-development model was paired with a similar model of the contemporary system in order to analyze hydrodynamic changes in the upper estuary. These analyses are presented in a technical memorandum published by RMA (2015). This memorandum takes these analyses and considers the ecological implications of modeled changes (see the “Results” section). Hydrodynamic analyses include analyzing changes in tidal prism, isohaline positions, low-salinity zone habitat, channel velocity, and source water distribution. Key findings include: • (1) a decrease in temporal salinity variability: the variability in X2 position across wet and critically dry years has been reduced, which would be expected to decrease site-scale heterogeneity in tidal marsh plant communities, with potential implications for the diversity and metapopulation dynamics of marsh animals; • (2) an increase in X2 position due to changes in estuarine geometry: changes in the geometry of the upper estuary have increased the position of X2 by an average of 3.23 km, which means substantially more water is now required to maintain X2 at any one position. Impacts of geometry-driven changes in X2 on wildlife populations are hard to predict given uncertainties in the mechanisms driving correlations between X2 and species abundance, but are potentially sizeable; • (3) loss of low-velocity refugia in blind channels: in the pre-development simulations, average channel velocities are up to 520% higher in the mainstem channel than at the head of the adjacent blind channel. Since the majority of the upper estuary's blind channels have been diked and filled, loss of these habitats is expected to have significantly decreased low-velocity refugia for aquatic organisms (such as outmigrating chinook salmon) and has likely decreased the heterogeneity of aquatic habitat with respect to velocity at the landscape-scale; • (4) changes in source water distribution: preliminary model results suggest San Joaquin source water “signal” has been severely truncated, while Sacramento “signal” has been widely diffused, which could contribute to a decrease in the ability of migratory organisms (especially adult salmon) to navigate the Delta using source-water specific chemical cues (though improved model calibration in the upper reaches of the estuary is needed to draw firm conclusions).

Ecologically Functional Floodplains: Connectivity, Flow Regime, and Scale

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | March 31st, 2010

This paper proposes a conceptual model that captures key attributes of ecologically functional floodplains, encompassing three basic elements: (1) hydrologic connectivity

This paper proposes a conceptual model that captures key attributes of ecologically functional floodplains, encompassing three basic elements: (1) hydrologic connectivity between the river and the floodplain, (2) a variable hydrograph that reflects seasonal precipitation patterns and retains a range of both high and low flow events, and (3) sufficient spatial scale to encompass dynamic processes and for floodplain benefits to accrue to a meaningful level. Although floodplains support high levels of biodiversity and some of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, they are also among the most converted and threatened ecosystems and therefore have recently become the focus of conservation and restoration programs across the United States and globally. These efforts seek to conserve or restore complex, highly variable ecosystems and often must simultaneously address both land and water management. Thus, such efforts must overcome considerable scientific, technical, and socioeconomic challenges. In addition to proposing a scientific conceptual model, this paper also includes three case studies that illustrate methods for addressing these technical and socioeconomic challenges within projects that seek to promote ecologically functional floodplains through river‐floodplain reconnection and/or restoration of key components of hydrological variability.

Economic and Environmental Implications of California Crop and Livestock, Adaptation to Climate Change

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Economic and water supply effects of ending groundwater overdraft in California’s Central Valley

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | March 1st, 2016

Surface water and groundwater management are often tightly linked, even when linkage is not intended or expected. This link is especially common in semi-arid regions,

Surface water and groundwater management are often tightly linked, even when linkage is not intended or expected. This link is especially common in semi-arid regions, such as California. This paper summarizes a modeling study on the effects of ending long-term overdraft in California’s Central Valley, the state’s largest aquifer system. The study focuses on economic and operational aspects, such as surface water pumping and diversions, groundwater recharge, water scarcity, and the associated operating and water scarcity costs. This analysis uses CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model for California’s water resource system that suggests operational changes to minimize net system costs for a given set of conditions, such as ending long-term overdraft. Based on model results, ending overdraft might induce some major statewide operational changes, including large increases to Delta exports, more intensive conjunctive-use operations with increasing artificial and in-lieu recharge, and greater water scarcity for Central Valley agriculture. The statewide costs of ending roughly 1.2 maf yr-1  of groundwater overdraft are at least $50 million per year from additional direct water shortage and additional operating costs. At its worst, the costs of ending Central Valley overdraft could be much higher, perhaps comparable to the recent economic effects of drought. Driven by recent state legislation to improve groundwater sustainability, ending groundwater overdraft has important implications statewide for water use and management, particularly in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Ending Central Valley overdraft will amplify economic pressure to increase Delta water exports rather than reduce them, tying together two of California’s largest water management problems.

Economic consequences of optimized water management for a prolonged, severe drought in California

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 21st, 2010

If abrupt climate change has occurred in the past and may be more likely under human forcing, it is relevant to look at the adaptability of current infrastructure system

If abrupt climate change has occurred in the past and may be more likely under human forcing, it is relevant to look at the adaptability of current infrastructure systems to severe conditions of the recent past. Geologic evidence suggests two extreme droughts in California during the last few thousand years, each 120–200 years long, with mean annual streamflows 40%–60% of the historical mean. This study synthesized a 72-year drought with half of mean historical inflows using random sampling of historical dry years. One synthetic hydrological record is used, and sensitivity to different interpretations of the paleo record is not evaluated. Economic effects and potential adaptation of California’s water supply system in 2020 to this drought is explored using a hydro-economic optimization model. The model considers how California could respond to such an extreme drought using water trading and provides best‐case estimates of economic costs and effects on water operations and demands. Results illustrate the ability of extensive, intertied, and flexible water systems with heterogeneous water demands to respond to severe stress. The study follows a different approach to climate change impact studies, focusing on past climate changes from the paleorecord rather than downscaled general circulation model results to provide plausible hydrologic scenarios. Adaptations suggested for the sustained drought are similar for dry forms of climate warming in California and are expensive but not catastrophic for the overall economy but would impose severe burdens on the agricultural sector and environmental water uses.

Economic-engineering optimization for California water management

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | May 15th, 2003

An economic-engineering optimization model of California’s major water supply system is presented. The model’s development, calibration, limitations, and resu

An economic-engineering optimization model of California’s major water supply system is presented. The model’s development, calibration, limitations, and results are reviewed. The major methodological conclusions are that large-scale water resources optimization models driven by economic objective functions are both possible and practical; deterministic models are useful despite their limitations; and data management, reconciliation, and documentation are important benefits of large-scale system modeling. Specific results for California indicate a great potential for water markets and conjunctive use to improve economic performance and significant economic value for expanding some conveyance facilities. Overall, economic-engineering optimization even if deterministic can suggest a variety of promising approaches for managing large systems. These approaches can then be refined and tested using more detailed simulation models. The process of developing large-scale models also motivates the systematic and integrated treatment of surface water, groundwater, facility, and water demand data, and identification of particularly important data problems, something of long-term value for all types of water resources analysis.

Effects of Groundwater Pumping on Agricultural Drains in the Tule Lake Subbasin, Oregon and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 24th, 2015

Since 2001, irrigators in the upper Klamath Basin have increasingly turned to groundwater to compensate for reductions in surface-water allocation caused by shifts from

Since 2001, irrigators in the upper Klamath Basin have increasingly turned to groundwater to compensate for reductions in surface-water allocation caused by shifts from irrigation use to instream flows for Endangered Species Act listed fishes. The largest increase in groundwater pumping has been in and around the Bureau of Reclamation’s Klamath Irrigation Project, which includes the Tule Lake subbasin in the southern part of the upper Klamath Basin. Agricultural drains on the Klamath Project are an important source of water for downstream irrigators and for the Tule Lake and Lower Klamath Lake National Wildlife Refuges. U.S. Geological Survey regional groundwater-flow model simulations and records of irrigation-return flow pumped from the Tule Lake subbasin into the adjacent Lower Klamath Lake subbasin have indicated that water-level declines from pumping may be causing decreased flow of shallow groundwater to agricultural drains. To better define the effect of increased pumping on drain flow and on the water balance of the groundwater system, the annual water volume pumped from drains in three subareas of the Tule Lake subbasin was estimated and a fine-grid, local groundwater model of the Tule Lake subbasin was constructed. Results of the agricultural-drain flow analysis indicate that groundwater discharge to drains has decreased such that flows in 2012 were approximately 32,400 acre-ft less than the 1997–2000 average flow. This decrease was concentrated in the northern and southeastern parts of the subbasin, which corresponds with the areas of greatest groundwater pumping. Model simulation results of the Tule Lake subbasin groundwater model indicate that increased supplemental pumping is the dominant stress to the groundwater system in the subbasin. Simulated supplemental pumping and decreased recharge from irrigation between 2000 and 2010 totaled 323,573 acre-ft, 234,800 acre-ft (73 percent) of which was from supplemental pumping. The response of the groundwater system to this change in stress included about 180,500 acre-ft (56 percent) of decreased groundwater discharge to drains and a 126,000 acre-ft (39 percent) reduction in aquifer storage. The remaining 5 percent came from reduced groundwater flow to other model boundaries, including the Lost River, the Tule Lake sumps, and interbasin flow.

Effects of Tidal Wetland Restoration on Fish: A Suite of Conceptual Models

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | November 2nd, 2017

Fishes native to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh have historically had access to a complex mosaic of dendritic channels, large tule marshes, floodplain

Fishes native to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh have historically had access to a complex mosaic of dendritic channels, large tule marshes, floodplains, and riparian woodlands. After the Gold Rush, that habitat was rapidly and drastically altered, and today several native fish species occur in record low numbers. Although many other stressors also contributed to population declines, habitat restoration is a major component of strategies to reverse the trend. Programs such as the Fish Restoration Program particularly emphasize restoration of tidal wetlands and associated shallow subtidal habitat and strive to restore and learn in an adaptive management context. Conceptual models, therefore, are necessary to plan both the restoration and the monitoring and evaluation of restoration actions.

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 7th, 2017

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty i

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Empirical Models of Shallow Groundwater and Multi-Hazard Flood Forecasts as Sea-Levels Rise

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | February 8th, 2025

Knowledge of coastal hydrogeology and hazards as groundwater responds to sea-level rise (SLR) can be improved through installation of shallow groundwater monitoring piezo

Knowledge of coastal hydrogeology and hazards as groundwater responds to sea-level rise (SLR) can be improved through installation of shallow groundwater monitoring piezometers and continuous observations. Interpolation of site data enables mapping of the present-day state of groundwater elevation, depth to groundwater (DTW), their temporal statistical variation, and differing spatial responses to tides and rainfall. Future DTW and its variability can be projected under increments of SLR, with assumptions and caveats, to show where and when episodic and/or permanent inundation can be expected. This methodology is outlined in a case study of Dunedin, New Zealand, which enabled comparison of rising groundwater's contribution to pluvial flooding and groundwater emergence with coastal inundation. Changes in relative land exposure with SLR shows evolution in flood hazard from current pluvial-dominated events, into “flooding from below” and groundwater emergence, in advance of any overland coastal inundation. Dunedin exemplifies how groundwater transfers effects of SLR surprisingly far inland, but the lowest-lying or shoreline-proximal suburbs are not necessarily the most vulnerable. Unlike coastal inundation, rising groundwater is unconstrained by protective topography and presents as a creeping hazard, or contributor to hazards such as pluvial flooding, which can be widespread, occurring already and difficult to defend against. The empirical models contain assumptions and uncertainties important to the veracity of results and application. While conservative (“risk averse”) and a compromise from computationally expensive numerical solutions, their value is in providing the spatial and temporal precision needed for multi-source hazard assessment and holistic adaptive planning.