Development of a Groundwater-Simulation Model in the Los Angeles Coastal Plain, Los Angeles County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | September 28th, 2021

The Los Angeles Coastal Plain (LACP) covers about 580 square miles and is the largest coastal plain of semiarid southern California. The LACP is heavily developed with mo

The Los Angeles Coastal Plain (LACP) covers about 580 square miles and is the largest coastal plain of semiarid southern California. The LACP is heavily developed with mostly residential, commercial, and industrial land uses that rely heavily on groundwater for water supply. In 2010, the LACP was home to about 14 percent of California’s population, or about 5.4 million residents. The LACP is also a major commercial and industrial hub with industries including manufacturing, aerospace, entertainment, and tourism. There has been a heavy reliance on groundwater from the LACP for many years. An average of 305,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of groundwater was used annually from the LACP from 1971 to 2015. The need to replenish the groundwater basins within the LACP was recognized as far back as the 1930s, when spreading grounds were first used to replenish groundwater basins and store water underground during times of water surplus to meet demands in times of shortage. Seawater intrusion resulting from freshwater pumping was first observed in the 1940s. As a result, injection of imported water through wells at what is now the West Coast Basin Barrier Project began on an experimental basis in 1951. Managed aquifer recharge from the spreading grounds and barrier wells is now a substantial component of the LACP’s groundwater supply. The average annual recharge from water spreading from 1971 to 2015 was about 120,000 acre-ft/yr, and the average annual injection into the barrier wells was about 33,000 acre-ft/yr. Other inflows include areal recharge, underflow from San Gabriel and San Fernando Valleys, and onshore flow from the ocean. The average annual recharge from these sources was 100,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) from 1971 to 2015. Additionally, cross-boundary flow from Orange County into the western Orange County subareas of the LACP was simulated as 48,000 acre-ft from 1971 to 2015. This study, conducted in cooperation with the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRD), involved an assessment of the historical and present status of groundwater resources in the LACP and the development of tools to better understand the groundwater system. These efforts were built upon results from previous studies and incorporate new information and developments in modeling capabilities to provide a more detailed analysis of the aquifer systems. This study includes a comprehensive compilation of geologic and hydrologic data (Chapter A), development of a chronostratigraphic model that provides a detailed description of the LACP aquifer systems (Chapter B), characterization of the groundwater hydrology of the LACP, including a down-hole analysis of grain size using lithologic and geophysical logs (Chapter C), and development and application of the Los Angeles Coastal Plain Groundwater-flow Model (LACPGM) to simulate past groundwater conditions, estimate groundwater-budget components and flow paths, and approximate future groundwater conditions under different scenarios (Chapter D).

Development of Stage-Frequency Curves in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

Future changes in hydrologic patterns and sea level rise will impact water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), the hub of California’s water supply sys

Future changes in hydrologic patterns and sea level rise will impact water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), the hub of California’s water supply system and an important ecosystem and agricultural area. An important tool for flood management is stage frequency curves which indicate how often certain water levels (or stage) occur. The Delta poses inherent complexity in the determination of stage-frequency and requires a number of considerations. One needs to account for river flows coming into the Delta, as well as the effect of tides from the Delta’s connection to the ocean through San Francisco Bay. During storms, Delta water levels are also affected by storm surge from the advancing storm fronts coming from the Pacific Ocean. Under climate change, Delta water levels will also be affected by rising sea levels and expected changes in hydrology, such as shifts in timing and amount of precipitation and runoff and changes in how much of our precipitation falls as rain or snow (referred to as climate change hydrology in this paper). With these taken into consideration, this study lays out the assumption and method used to develop stage-frequency curves in the Delta for three different conditions: current hydrology conditions, current hydrology with sea level rise, and late-century climate change hydrology with sea level rise. In addition, water surface elevation profiles along the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers for various magnitudes of flood events were compared to the top of levee elevations. Both the stage-frequency curves and the water surface elevation profiles comparisons to top of levee elevations provide valuable information to water resources planners and were applied to inform life and flood risk analysis for the Delta in the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2017 Update.

Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 24th, 2004

Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapo

Recent decreases in Arctic sea ice cover and the probability of continued decreases have raised the question of how reduced Arctic sea ice cover will influence extrapolar climate. Using a fully coupled earth system model, we generate one possible future Arctic sea ice distribution. We use this ‘‘future’’ sea ice distribution and the corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to run a fixed SST and ice concentration experiment with the goal of determining direct climate responses to the reduction in Arctic sea ice that is projected to occur in the next 50 years. Our results indicate that future reductions in Arctic sea ice cover could significantly reduce available water in the American west and highlight the fact that the most severe impacts of future climate change will likely be at a regional scale.

Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 24th, 2020

Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater stora

Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater storage) could affect the sustainability of freshwater resources. Here, we used a fully-coupled climate model to investigate GWS changes over seven critical aquifers identified as significantly distressed by satellite observations. We assessed the potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that the climate-driven impacts on GWS changes do not necessarily reflect the long-term trend in precipitation; instead, the trend may result from enhancement of evapotranspiration, and reduction in snowmelt, which collectively lead to divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers. Finally, we compare the climate-driven and anthropogenic pumping impacts. The reduction in GWS is mainly due to the combined impacts of over-pumping and climate effects; however, the contribution of pumping could easily far exceed the natural replenishment.

Documentation of a Groundwater Flow Model (SJRRPGW) for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program Study Area, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | September 23rd, 2014

To better understand the potential effects of restoration flows on existing drainage problems, anticipated as a result of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program (SJRRP

To better understand the potential effects of restoration flows on existing drainage problems, anticipated as a result of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program (SJRRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), developed a groundwater flow model (SJRRPGW) of the SJRRP study area that is within 5 miles of the San Joaquin River and adjacent bypass system from Friant Dam to the Merced River. The primary goal of the SJRRP is to reestablish the natural ecology of the river to a degree that restores salmon and other fish populations. Increased flows in the river, particularly during the spring salmon run, are a key component of the restoration effort. A potential consequence of these increased river flows is the exacerbation of existing irrigation drainage problems along a section of the river between Mendota and the confluence with the Merced River. Historically, this reach typically was underlain by a water table within 10 feet of the land surface, thus requiring careful irrigation management and (or) artificial drainage to maintain crop health. The SJRRPGW is designed to meet the short-term needs of the SJRRP; future versions of the model may incorporate potential enhancements, several of which are identified in this report. The SJRRPGW was constructed using the USGS groundwater flow model MODFLOW and was built on the framework of the USGS Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) within which the SJRRPGW model domain is embedded. The Farm Process (FMP2) was used to simulate the supply and demand components of irrigated agriculture. The Streamflow-Routing Package (SFR2) was used to simulate the streams and bypasses and their interaction with the aquifer system. The 1,300-square mile study area was subdivided into 0.25-mile by 0.25-mile cells. The sediment texture of the aquifer system, which was used to distribute hydraulic properties by model cell, was refined from that used in the CVHM to better represent the natural heterogeneity of aquifer-system materials within the model domain. In addition, the stream properties were updated from the CVHM to better simulate stream-aquifer interactions, and water-budget subregions were refined to better simulate agricultural water supply and demand. External boundary conditions were derived from the CVHM. The SJRRPGW was calibrated for April 1961 to September 2003 by using groundwater-level observations from 133 wells and streamflow observations from 19 streamgages. The model was calibrated using public-domain parameter estimation software (PEST) in a semi-automated manner. The simulated groundwater-level elevations and trends (including seasonal fluctuations) and surface-water flow magnitudes and trends reasonably matched observed data. The calibrated model is planned to be used to assess the potential effects of restoration flows on agricultural lands and the relative capabilities of proposed SJRRP actions to reduce these effects.

Documentation of Model Input and Output Values for the Geohydrology and Mathematical Simulation of the Pajaro Valley Aquifer System, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 14th, 1990

As part of a study of the geology and hydrology of the Pajaro Valley aquifer system, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California, a three-layer mathematical mode

As part of a study of the geology and hydrology of the Pajaro Valley aquifer system, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California, a three-layer mathematical model was developed, using the computational algorithm of McDonald and Harbaugh (1984). The results of the Pajaro Valley study are given by Johnson and others (1988).

Domestic well vulnerability to drought duration and unsustainable groundwater management in California's Central Valley

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | March 18th, 2020

Millions of Californians access drinking water via domestic wells, which are vulnerable to drought and unsustainable groundwater management. Groundwater overdraft and th

Millions of Californians access drinking water via domestic wells, which are vulnerable to drought and unsustainable groundwater management. Groundwater overdraft and the possibility of longer drought duration under climate change threatens domestic well reliability, yet we lack tools to assess the impact of such events. Here, we leverage 943,469 well completion reports and 20 years of groundwater elevation data to develop a spatially-explicit domestic well failure model covering California’s Central Valley. Our model successfully reproduces the spatial distribution of observed domestic well failures during the severe 2012–2016 drought (n=2027). Next, the impact of longer drought duration (5–8years) on domestic well failure is evaluated, indicating that if the 2012–2016 drought would have continued into a 6 to 8 year long drought, a total of 4037–5460 to 6538–8056 wells would fail. The same drought duration scenarios with an intervening wet winter in 2017 lead to an average of 498 and 738 fewer well failures. Additionally, we map vulnerable wells at high failure risk and find that they align with clusters of predicted well failures. Lastly, we evaluate how the timing and implementation of different projected groundwater management regimes impact groundwater levels and thus domestic well failure. When historic overdraft persists until 2040, domestic well failures range from 5966 to 10 466 (depending on the historic period considered). When sustainability is achieved progressively between 2020 and 2040, well failures range from 3677 to 6943, and from 1516 to 2513 when groundwater is not allowed to decline after 2020.

Downscaling global ocean climate models improves estimates of exposure regimes in coastal environments

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 26th, 2020

Climate change is expected to warm, deoxygenate, and acidify ocean waters. Global climate models (GCMs) predict future conditions at large spatial scales, and these pred

Climate change is expected to warm, deoxygenate, and acidify ocean waters. Global climate models (GCMs) predict future conditions at large spatial scales, and these predictions are then often used to parameterize laboratory experiments designed to assess biological and ecological responses to future change. However, nearshore ecosystems are affected by a range of physical processes such as tides, local winds, and surface and internal waves, causing local variability in conditions that often exceeds global climate models. Predictions of future climatic conditions at local scales, the most relevant to ecological responses, are largely lacking. To fill this critical gap, we developed a 2D implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to downscale global climate predictions across all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to smaller spatial scales, in this case the scale of a temperate reef in the northeastern Pacific. To assess the potential biological impacts of local climate variability, we then used the results from different climate scenarios to estimate how climate change may affect the survival, growth, and fertilization of a representative marine benthic invertebrate, the red abalone Haliotis rufescens, to a highly varying multi-stressor environment. We found that high frequency variability in temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and pH increases as pCO2 increases in the atmosphere. Extreme temperature and pH conditions are generally not expected until RCP 4.5 or greater, while frequent exposure to low DO is already occurring. In the nearshore environment simulation, strong RCP scenarios can affect red abalone growth as well as reduce fertilization during extreme conditions when compared to global scale simulations.

DRAFT Staff Report/Substitute Environmental Document in Support of Potential Updates to the Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary for the Sacramento River and its Tributaries, Delta Eastside Tributaries, and Delta

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | September 28th, 2023

Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 2nd, 2018

Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying

Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying much of the water used for irrigated agriculture, and municipal and industrial uses. Updating our earlier work published in 2005, we find that with 14 additional years of data, over 90% of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US now show declines, of which 33% are significant (vs. 5% expected by chance) and 2% are significant and positive (vs. 5% expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. We find a large increase in the fraction of locations that posted decreasing trends, and averaged across the western US, the decline in average April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15–30% or 25–50 km3, comparable in volume to the West’s largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead.