Climate and choice in the Colorado River Basin

Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) | October 31st, 2024

Climate and land change impacts on future managed wetland habitat: a case study from California’s Central Valley

Landscape Ecology (Springer) | January 7th, 2022

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited wa

Concept California’s Central Valley provides critical habitat for migratory waterbirds, yet only 10% of naturally occurring wetlands remain. Competition for limited water supplies and climate change will impact the long-term viability of these intensively managed habitats. Objectives Forecast the distribution, abundance, and connectivity of surface water and managed wetland habitats, using 5 spatially explicit (270 m2) climate/land use/water prioritization scenarios. Mapping potential future dynamic flooded habitat used by waterbirds and other wetland-dependent wildlife to inform management decisions. Methods We integrated a climate-driven hydrologic water use model with a spatially explicit land change model, to examine stakeholder-driven scenarios of future land change, climate, and water use and their impacts on future habitat availability. Results Declining water availability is the dominant driver of habitat loss across scenarios. The hot/dry scenarios showed the greatest declines in January flooded area by 2101—an important month for overwintering waterbirds. In contrast, higher water supplies in wet climates drive perennial cropland conversion and loss of potential habitat. Potential flooded cropland declined (25 and 33%) under warmer/wetter climate conditions due to this conversion to perennial crops, exposing habitat vulnerability. Conclusion Climate-driven loss of water availability had a greater impact on flooded habitat availability than land-use change. When combined, climate change and the conversion of potentially flooded cropland to perennial cropland will threaten future waterbird habitat particularly in January, the peak of the migratory bird season, even when habitat restoration goals are met. Stakeholder-informed scenario analysis can identify target areas for potential habitat change, vulnerability, and conservation.

Climate change contributions to future atmospheric river flood damages in the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 12th, 2022

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) generate most of the economic losses associated with flooding in the western United States and are projected to increase in intensity with climat

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) generate most of the economic losses associated with flooding in the western United States and are projected to increase in intensity with climate change. This is of concern as flood damages have been shown to increase exponentially with AR intensity. To assess how AR-related flood damages are likely to respond to climate change, we constructed county-level damage models for the western 11 conterminous states using 40 years of flood insurance data linked to characteristics of ARs at landfall. Damage functions were applied to 14 CMIP5 global climate models under the RCP4.5 “intermediate emissions” and RCP8.5 “high emissions” scenarios, under the assumption that spatial patterns of exposure, vulnerability, and flood protection remain constant at present day levels. The models predict that annual expected AR-related flood damages in the western United States could increase from $1 billion in the historical period to $2.3 billion in the 2090s under the RCP4.5 scenario or to $3.2 billion under the RCP8.5 scenario. County-level projections were developed to identify counties at greatest risk, allowing policymakers to target efforts to increase resilience to climate change.

Climate Change Effects on the High-Elevation Hydropower System with Consideration of Warming Impacts on Electricity Demand and Pricing

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

While only about 30 percent of California’s usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high-elevation hydropower units generate, on average, 74 percent of

While only about 30 percent of California’s usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high-elevation hydropower units generate, on average, 74 percent of California’s instate hydroelectricity. In general, high-elevation plants have small man-made reservoirs and rely mainly on snowpack. Their low built-in storage capacity is a concern with regard to climate warming. Snowmelt is expected to shift to earlier in the year, and the system may not be able to store sufficient water for release in high-demand periods. Previous studies have explored the climate warming effects on California’s high-elevation hydropower system by focusing on the supply side (exploring the effects of hydrological changes on generation and revenues) but they have ignored the warming effects on hydropower demand and pricing. This study extends the previous work by simultaneous consideration of climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower supply and demand in California. Artificial Neural Network models were developed as long-term price estimation tools, to investigate the impact of climate warming on energy prices. California’s Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) was then applied, to estimate the adaptability of California’s high-elevation hydropower system to climate warming, considering the warming effects on hydropower supply and demand. The model was run for dry and wet warming scenarios, representing a range of hydrological changes under climate change. The model’s results relative to energy generation, energy spills, reservoir energy storage, and average shadow prices of energy generation and storage capacity expansion are examined and discussed. The modeling results are compared with previous studies to emphasize the need to consider climate change effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing when exploring the effects of climate change on California’s hydropower system.

Climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | April 23rd, 2015

Precipitation projections from climate models vary up to 16%; flow projections revealed greater differences, up to 50%. The climate models projected increase in t

Precipitation projections from climate models vary up to 16%; flow projections revealed greater differences, up to 50%. The climate models projected increase in temperature at low elevations with extreme seasonality at high elevations, although summer temperatures increased at all elevations. The models projected a 60% decline in precipitation at lower elevations and a 74% increase at high elevations, although precipitation declined during the summer months at all elevations. Using the A2 scenario an overall decrease in annual flow was predicted, attributed to a reduction in precipitation and increasing temperature trends; however, this was not consistent during the winter months, which showed an increase in precipitation at high elevations and a modest temperature increase during the winter and resulted in an increase in stream flow. The responses to climate change on reservoir levels varied basin-wide due to variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and stream flow. Simulations indicated that water levels in Blue Mesa Reservoir (the largest reservoir in the UCRB) would decline by more than 70% with increasing annual temperatures. Reservoirs with smaller surface areas to the volume ratio were not significantly impacted by evapotranspiration. Our results indicate that hydropower management strategies in the UCRB must adapt to potential climate change, but the required adaptations are dependent on several factors including reservoir size and location.

Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 28th, 2025

 To determine the role of climate change in this observed trend we combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. Eight of the eleven models examined also

 To determine the role of climate change in this observed trend we combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. Eight of the eleven models examined also show an increase in extreme January FWI, increasing our confidence that climate change is driving this trend. Combining models and observations, we find that human-induced warming from burning fossil fuels made the peak January FWI more intense, with an estimated 6% increase in intensity, and 35% more probable. 

Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 1st, 2022

Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of ext

Post-wildfire extreme rainfall events can have destructive impacts in the western United States. Using two climate model large ensembles, we assess the future risk of extreme fire weather events being followed by extreme rainfall in this region. By mid-21st century, in a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), we report large increases in the number of extreme fire weather events followed within 1 year by at least one extreme rainfall event. By 2100, the frequency of these compound events increases by 100% in California and 700% in the Pacific Northwest in the Community Earth System Model v1 Large Ensemble. We further project that more than 90% of extreme fire weather events in California, Colorado, and the Pacific Northwest will be followed by at least three spatially colocated extreme rainfall events within five years. Our results point to a future with substantially increased post-fire hydrologic risks across much of the western United States.

Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 8th, 2015

Global warming of the Earth’s atmosphere is hypothesized to lead to an intensification of the global water cycle. To determine associated hydrological changes, most pr

Global warming of the Earth’s atmosphere is hypothesized to lead to an intensification of the global water cycle. To determine associated hydrological changes, most previous research has used precipitation. This study, however, investigates projected changes to global atmospheric water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)), the key link between water source and sink regions. Using22 global circulation models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we evaluate, globally, the mean, standard deviation, and the 95th percentiles of IVT from the historical simulations(1979–2005) and two emissions scenarios (2073–2099). Considering the more extreme emissions, multimodel mean IVT increases by 30–40% in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks and in the equatorial Pacific Ocean trade winds. An acceleration of the high-latitude IVT is also shown. Analysis of low-altitude moisture and winds suggests that these changes are mainly due to higher atmospheric water vapor content.

Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 8th, 2015

Global warming of the Earth’s atmosphere is hypothesized to lead to an intensification of the global water cycle. To determine associated hydrological changes, most pr

Global warming of the Earth’s atmosphere is hypothesized to lead to an intensification of the global water cycle. To determine associated hydrological changes, most previous research has used precipitation. This study, however, investigates projected changes to global atmospheric water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)), the key link between water source and sink regions. Using 22 global circulation models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we evaluate, globally, the mean, standard deviation, and the 95th percentiles of IVT from the historical simulations (1979–2005) and two emissions scenarios (2073–2099). Considering the more extreme emissions, multimodel mean IVT increases by 30–40% in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks and in the equatorial Pacific Ocean trade winds. An acceleration of the high-latitude IVT is also shown. Analysis of low-altitude moisture and winds suggests that these changes are mainly due to higher atmospheric water vapor content.

Climate Change Risks Faced by the California Central Valley Water Resource System

California Energy Commission (CEC) | ?

Observed climate trends and projections of accelerated future change have motivated several studies of the impacts of climate change on water resources management in Cal

Observed climate trends and projections of accelerated future change have motivated several studies of the impacts of climate change on water resources management in California. This paper presents a methodology that improves on previous approaches, revealing fundamental climate change risks to one of the State of California’s key water resource systems — the integrated California Central Valley System (CCVS). By using a bottom-up decision scaling approach, starting with a systematic climate change stress test of the performance of the system to changes in temperature and precipitation, specific vulnerabilities to the system are identified. This study also improves on previous water resource vulnerability analyses by incorporating and evaluating a much wider range of inter-annual precipitation variability than has previously been used. By drawing from the 1,100-year (reconstructed dendrochronology) record of Sacramento and San Joaquin river flows, vulnerabilities to low frequency natural climate variability are analyzed in concert with expected potential climate changes. The results of this analysis provide a comprehensive summary of the sensitivity of the system to climate change. This paper provides results and discussion of select future system performance metrics at 2050. Results indicate that declines in almost every category (e.g., supply, storage, delta outflow) of system performance are likely. The likelihood of severely degraded future performance is especially high for north-of-Delta carryover storage and Delta exports. The results of this study are expected to provide water managers and decision-makers with more actionable science because they provide probabilistic results that can be used in more traditional risk management approaches to planning of climate change adaptation investment decisions.