Valuing Urban Nature – Implications for Flood Resilience

Stanford University | June 3rd, 2019

Sea-level rise and extreme weather events such as torrential rain storms are having devastating consequences in the United States and globally. Researchers, prac

Sea-level rise and extreme weather events such as torrential rain storms are having devastating consequences in the United States and globally. Researchers, practitioners, and policymakers are increasingly calling for the use of natural and nature-based approaches to protect urban areas from flooding which has increased in frequency and intensity as a result. Natural features can help stabilize shorelines and protect communities from river flooding while, providing other co- benefits for people and ecosystems. In a new study, scientists at the Natural Capital Project developed a framework for valuating urban nature and examined different factors cities must consider when making infrastructure and other investment choices. This brief is part of a series based on that research which looks at nature’s abilityto provide resilience to flooding and the various co-benefits associated with nature-based solutions.

Variable vertical land motion and its impacts on sea level rise projections

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | January 29th, 2025

Coastal vertical land motion (VLM), including uplift and subsidence, can greatly alter relative sea level projections and flood mitigations plans. Yet, current projection

Coastal vertical land motion (VLM), including uplift and subsidence, can greatly alter relative sea level projections and flood mitigations plans. Yet, current projection frameworks, such as the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, often underestimate VLM by relying on regional linear estimates. Using high-resolution (90-meter) satellite data from 2015 to 2023, we provide local VLM estimates for California and assess their contribution to sea level rise both now and in future. Our findings reveal that regional estimates substantially understate sea level rise in parts of San Francisco and Los Angeles, projecting more than double the expected rise by 2050. Additionally, temporally variable (nonlinear) VLM, driven by factors such as hydrocarbon and groundwater extraction, can increase uncertainties in 2050 projections by up to 0.4 meters in certain areas of Los Angeles and San Diego. This study highlights the critical need to include local VLM and its uncertainties in sea level rise assessments to improve coastal management and ensure effective adaptation efforts.

Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 16th, 2022

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger

Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based on daytime conditions1,2, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions—and their associated role as fire reducers—are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPDt), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours—when VPD exceeds VPDt—increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires.

Water and Suspended-Sediment Flux Measurements at the Golden Gate, 2016-2017

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | December 1st, 2017

Sediment is an important resource for San Francisco Bay (SFB), in the context of restoration projects, dredging operations, ecosystem health, and contaminant transport an

Sediment is an important resource for San Francisco Bay (SFB), in the context of restoration projects, dredging operations, ecosystem health, and contaminant transport and fate. Understanding the transport and fate of sediment in SFB is important to ecosystem researchers and managers. Previous studies have shown that sediment exchange at the estuary-ocean boundary of SFB (Golden Gate inlet) is the most poorly understood element of the SFB sediment budget, owing to logistical challenges that inhibit routine field observations, and the fact that net flux is a small fraction of the instantaneous peak values experienced on a daily basis. Improved understanding of sediment exchange at the estuary-ocean boundary of SFB is essential to updating SFB-wide sediment budgets, which account for sources, sinks, and storage of sediment (and sediment-associated contaminants). In this study, field observations of water and suspended-sediment fluxes at the Golden Gate were made over one ebb tide and one flood tide on three occasions: 1) 21-22 March 2016, following a large storm event that triggered the first flow into Yolo Bypass flood control structure since 2011 2) 23 June of 2016, during a period of low freshwater inflow; 3) 27-28 February 2017, following several large storms of the wettest winter in northern California in recorded history.

Water Resources Data for California, Water year 1983, Volume 2, Pacific Slope Basins from Arroyo Grande to Oregon State Line except Central Valley

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 15th, 1985

Water resources data for the 1983 water year for California consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservo

Water resources data for the 1983 water year for California consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; stage and contents in lakes and reservoirs; and water levels and water quality in wells. Volume 2 contains discharge records for 145 gaging stations; stage and contents for 19 lakes and reservoirs; water quality for 17 stations; water levels for 67 observation wells. Also included are 2 low-flow partial-record stations and 18 water-quality partial-record stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in California.

Water Wasted to the Sea?

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 15th, 2017

Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change in the United States Series, Part 2

Pacific Institute | October 15th, 2024

In the United States, federal, tribal, state, and local laws and policies exist to govern the provision of water and sanitation services to communities and homes. The law

In the United States, federal, tribal, state, and local laws and policies exist to govern the provision of water and sanitation services to communities and homes. The laws are designed to ensure the protection of public health and the environment; deliver sufficient, safe water for drinking, bathing, cooking, and other household needs; and remove and treat domestic (i.e., household) waste. People without complete plumbing or safe water live within the “water access gap.” As explored in the first report in this series, climate change—from extreme temperatures to droughts, floods, extreme storms, and wildfires—is making it hard to close this gap and keep it from growing. Water and sanitation systems in frontline communities already feel the disproportionate “first and worst” impacts of climate change to these systems and to their access to water and sanitation. Laws and policies should help anticipate and plan  or the incremental and catastrophic impacts of climate change and protect those most harmed by the effects. Unfortunately, in most cases, the climate is changing faster than the law can respond, thereby leaving frontline communities’ water and sanitation systems vulnerable to damage or destruction. This is part two in the three-part Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change in the United States series. Click here for part one and here for part three.

Waterline responses to climate forcing along the North American West Coast

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2025

Understanding waterline variability at seasonal to interannual timescales is crucial for predicting coastal responses to climate forcing. However, relationships between l

Understanding waterline variability at seasonal to interannual timescales is crucial for predicting coastal responses to climate forcing. However, relationships between large-scale climate variability and coastal morphodynamics remain underexplored beyond intensively monitored sites. This study leverages a newly developed 25-year (1997–2022) satellite-derived waterline dataset along the North American West Coast. Our results reveal distinct latitudinal patterns in seasonal waterline change, with excursions exceeding 25 m in the Pacific Northwest, decreasing to less than 10 m in Southern California and farther south. Waterline fluctuations strongly follow wave power in the Pacific Northwest (R = −0.78), northern California (R = −0.75), and Baja California (R = −0.62), while Baja California Sur aligns more with sea-level variations (R = −0.42). Interannually, waterline change exhibits latitudinal dependence: south of southern California, variability is low, with major erosion confined to strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, while northern regions show mixed responses. ENSO-driven storm track shifts modulate winter wave climate, resulting in enhanced (attenuated) erosion from southern California to Baja California Sur during El Niño (La Niña). However, further north, ENSO impacts are less consistent, reflecting a complex interplay of storm track displacement and intensification. These findings highlight the spatial complexity of ENSO-driven morphodynamics and provide a framework for assessing climate-induced coastal vulnerability.

Watershed Modeling for the Santa Clara River in Southern California

Ventura County Public Works Agency (VCPWA) | July 24th, 2019

A calibrated watershed hydrologic model of the Santa Clara River (SCR) Watershed was developed for use as a tool for watershed planning, resource assessment, and ultima

A calibrated watershed hydrologic model of the Santa Clara River (SCR) Watershed was developed for use as a tool for watershed planning, resource assessment, and ultimately, water quality management purposes. The study was a joint effort of the Ventura County Watershed Protection District (VCWPD), Los Angeles County Department of Public Works (LACDPW), and U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Los Angeles District. The modeling package used for the study was the U.S. EPA Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF). The SCR main stem flows east-to-west from the San Gabriel Mountains of central Los Angeles County to its mouth at the Pacific Ocean near the cities of Ventura and Oxnard. The 4,263 square kilometer watershed includes rapidly urbanizing valleys and extensive agriculture, and is subject to severe flooding and erosion. There are four large reservoirs within the watershed. Although the Santa Clara River watershed remains primarily in a natural physical state, the flow regime within the watershed is highly engineered to optimize water deliveries and aquifer recharge. The SCR Watershed was segmented into 209 subwatersheds and 192 stream reaches, based on precipitation patterns, drainage boundaries, hydrography, stream gage locations, and impaired water segments. Each land segment was further subdivided into individual model segments based on land use/cover categories. A long-term data base of 46 years of model input data (precipitation, evaporation, diversions, POTWs, etc.) was developed. The model was calibrated and validated to observed flow at multiple locations, using both graphical and statistical model-data comparisons. Long-term simulations were run to assess the impacts of alternative conditions (baseline, natural) on flow and flood frequencies. The model was also used to generate design storm event hydrographs for selected return intervals with synthetic input rainfall hyetographs for the corresponding rainfall return period developed from available rain gage data. The design storm results were submitted to FEMA for the Flood Insurance Study currently underway.

Wet Antecedent Soil Moisture Increases Atmospheric River Streamflow Magnitudes Nonlinearly

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 4th, 2025

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the U.S. West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging becaus

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the U.S. West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging because precipitation phase, antecedent conditions, and physical watershed characteristics (e.g., slope and soil depth) can influence the magnitude of floods. Here, we analyze how antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions contribute to variability in streamflow during AR events and how that changes across climatic regimes and physiography in 122 U.S. West Coast watersheds. We identify a robust nonlinear relationship between streamflow and ASM during ARs in 89% of watersheds. The inflection point in this relationship represents a watershed-specific critical ASM threshold, above which event maximum streamflow is, on average, 2–4.5 times larger. Wet ASM conditions amplify the hydrologic impacts of more frequent but weaker, lower moisture transport AR events, while dry ASM conditions attenuate the hydrologic impacts that stronger, higher moisture transport AR events could otherwise cause. Our research shows that watersheds prone to ASM-amplified streamflows have higher evaporation ratios, lower cold-season precipitation, lower snow-to-rain ratios, and shallower, clay-rich soils. Higher evaporation and lower precipitation lead to greater ASM variability during the cold season, increasing streamflow during wet periods and buffering streamflow during dry periods. Lower snow fraction and shallower soils limit the antecedent water storage capacity of a watershed, contributing to greater sensitivity of streamflow peaks to ASM variability. Incorporating ASM thresholds into hydrologic models in these regions prone to AR-amplified streamflow could improve forecasts and decrease uncertainty.